NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Dumpster Diving with Luka Samanic (March 4)

We’re back with another six-game NBA slate on Monday that tips off at 6:30 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, including LeBron James and Luka Samanic.

One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, March 4

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Thunder-Lakers: LeBron James

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 15.80%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,700

It’s always fun to be able to roster LeBron James at low ownership, and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,700. James continues to be listed as questionable with left ankle peroneal tendinopathy, but he’s played in five consecutive games without limitations, so it’s logical to think he suits up tonight for a primetime matchup against the Thunder. Coming into tonight’s action averaging 49.8 fantasy points per game, LeBron continues to be an elite fantasy commodity despite approaching the ripe age of 40. Despite his nightly dominance, however, the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate they should be on DraftKings.

James is projected to be in just 10.10% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 15.80%, it’s clear why LeBron stands out as one of the best plays on the slate from a leverage perspective. He is undoubtedly an elite tournament piece at $9,700.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Blazers-Wolves: Deandre Ayton

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 14.20%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,700

Deandre Ayton is the second-highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the obvious top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $6,300. Like LeBron, Ayton also comes into tonight with a questionable tag. Unlike James, Ayton is in danger of missing a third straight game so his availability tonight is truly unknown.

After being listed as doubtful ahead of the past two matchups, however, Ayton’s questionable tag suggests he’s at least on the right path. When he’s played this season, Ayton has been a solid fantasy contributor and despite a tough matchup against the Timberwolves, there’s a lot to like about him on DraftKings at a falling $6,300 price tag.

Ayton is projected to be in just 6.70% of lineups but has a 14.20% optimal percentage. Although these numbers will change once we get confirmation of his availability, Ayton is clearly someone to target in GPP’s. While he’s probably fairly priced for his median outcome, Ayton has massive upside at $6,300, and he’s not getting nearly the love he should be getting on DraftKings.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Wizards-Jazz: Luka Samanic

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 9.40%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,000

It’s always nice to be able roster players at the flat $3,000 with positive leverage, and Jazz forward Luka Samanic fits that bill on DraftKings. Although no one will argue that Samanic isn’t more solid than spectacular, he stands out in a big way from a leverage standpoint for DFS purposes.

While he’s usually just a fringe rotation piece, Samanic is likely to see his minutes increase tonight with both Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler out for the Jazz. Regardless of how many minutes he plays, Samanic is still unlikely to put up a score that’s needed to win tournaments. His $3,000 price tag, however, opens up paths to roster construction that otherwise would be closed.

Stokastic’s tools currently have Samanic as the highest graded leverage play on the slate. As of this writing Samanic is projected to be optimal 9.40% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 1.60% of lineups projected to roster him, Samanic is an easy way to get contrarian without much opportunity cost.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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