NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Giannis, Jazz and Wizards! (March 4)

The NBA action on Monday marches forth with a featured slate locking at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Domantas Sabonis and most of the starters from the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards who are squaring off in our nation’s capial. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, MMA and NASCAR) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, March 4

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Bucks vs. Clippers

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 55.79 | FanDuel: 56.77
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 25.4% | FanDuel: 22.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10.400 | FanDuel: $11.800

The Milwaukee Bucks have seen a dramatic turnaround under new head coach Glenn Rivers. Despite a rocky start that saw the team loss five of the first six games under his instruction, they are on a five-game winning streak and have an 8-7 record.

Khris Middleton has missed the last 10 games and he is not going to play tonight. That means a heavy load for Giannis Antetokounmpo and he is coming off a sublime 80 fantasy point performance on Friday.

That gives Antetokounmpo four games of 59 or more fantasy points in his last six and his two “worst” performances were in drubbings of the Charlotte Hornets. It is important to note that Antetokounmpo has been managing knee soreness, but indications are that he will play tonight after last seeing action on Friday. FanDuel is skipping the last two games of the slate, so Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Edwards are the only players on the blue site with a median fantasy projection within 15 points of Antetokounmpo. DraftKings is including the Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers, so there are four additional players from those matchups that are within 10 fantasy points of Antetokounmpo.

Russell Westbrook fractured his left hand and is going to be out for at least a month, though that does not dramatically impact Leonard, Paul George or James Harden and it is more of a shuffling on the second-unit, likely with Bones Hyland getting a chance to see consistent run. It is important to note that Rivers has Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez playing defense closer to the basket, similar to what the Bucks had done in prior years. This has resulted in Milwaukee allowing just 106.4 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games, down dramatically from the 116.1 defensive efficiency rating during December and January. That makes it tough to be excite about the Clippers as evidenced by the sub-15% projected popularity for the team on DraftKings. FanDuel is different with there being two less games on the docket, but Leonard (20.8%) is the only player in double-digits.

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Domantas Sabonis: Kings vs. Bulls

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 54.81 | FanDuel: n/a
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 11.5% | FanDuel: n/a
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: n/a

Domantas Sabonis is in the midst of an epic run, which has him leading the league with 21 triple-doubles and a career high 13.2 rebounds per game. If he continues this torrid pace, he will be the first player to earn the rebound king designation in back-to-back seasons, since Andre Drummond rattled off four straight between 2017 and 2020.

Sabonis has nine triple-doubles in his last 14 games and that milestone is very much in play tonight.

During this stretch, Sabonis is averaging 37.0 minutes and 13.6 field goal attempts with a ridiculous 59.7% conversion rate. This has culminated in 20.0 points, 14.1 rebounds, 10.2 assists and 1.7 combined blocks and steals. Enjoy!

De’Aaron Fox has been dealing with a sore knee, but if he is able to suit up tonight, he is a solid option on DraftKings. Over the last 10 games, the Kings are allowing 117.7 points per 100 possessions, which is the sixth-worst rate in the league during this timeframe. That has Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan and Coby White as solid selections, with Ayo Dosunmu and Andre Drummond as differentiation plays.

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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games

Washington Wizards vs. Utah Jazz

Over the last 10 games, these teams are in the bottom three for points allowed, while Washington is also playing at the fastest pace, with Utah ranking eighth. Current projections have eight of the nine most popular plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel coming from this game.

Kyle Kuzma (53.8%) is the most popular play on DraftKings, while Deni Avdija (64.6%) has that honor on FanDuel. Tyus Jones an Jordan Poole round out the top three Wizards on the former site, while it is Jones and Bilal Coulibaly on the Latter.

Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen are both out tonight, so that means ample frontcourt minutes for John Collins and rookie Taylor Hendricks, with Omer Yurtseven likely a wild card option backing them up. Keep in mind that the Wizards often go with Kuzma as the nominal “center” so there are scenarios where Yurtseven will be hard-pressed to top 10 minutes of run.

Keyonte George, Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson will all benefit from the extra offensive opportunities vacated by Markannen and there could actually be a Talen Horton-Tucker sighting, which is a rare occurrence these days. Kris Dunn still feels like a trap as he has played more than 21 minutes once in the last eight games since falling out of the starting lineup and 17 or fewer in three of these tilts.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

While Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be a featured play for DFS lineups, looking to the under on his 32.5 points prop, which is currently available at odds of -125 on ESPNBet.

This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets.

We can se that most of the books are in the -130 range, or even dropping down to 31.5 points, with “sharp” book Pinnacle all the way down to -141.

Per the true odds of -135 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a steady 3.5% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.

NBA Bet Pro currently has Antetokounmpo projected for 35.3 minutes and 32.23 points, which is just below the 32.5 target, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.

Scoring 33 points in a game is a lofty total for anyone, even for someone like Antetokounmpo, who has averaged 31.0 points per game over his last 122 outings. In his last 10 games, the Greek Freak has tallied 33 or more points on four occasions and for the year he has done it 25 times in 59 (42.4%) games, with six of those times being 33 and another four times falling just shy with 32 points. Tonight the Bucks are projected for 115.8 points, which is 5.7 below their season average.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show starting at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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