NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Look to Pelicans for Different Value (February 25)

We’re back with another seven-game slate on Sunday that tips off at 7 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Brandon Ingram and Keegan Murray. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Sunday, February 25

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Bulls-Pelicans: Brandon Ingram

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 12.00%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,100

Brandon Ingram is the highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools. He comes into tonight’s contest with a questionable tag after missing the past two games with an illness, but his presence during the Pelicans morning shootaround bodes well for his potential return to action. With C.J. McCollum out with an ankle injury, expect Ingram to have the ball in his hands even more than usual in what should be a competitive game against the Bulls. Despite his clear upside at $8,100, the field isn’t prioritizing Ingram at all on DraftKings.

Ingram is projected to be in just 5.80% of lineups on DraftKings, but his optimal percentage is 12.00%, making him currently the best differentiator on the slate and an elite tournament building block at $8,100.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Kings-Clippers: Keegan Murray

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 14.70%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,000

Keegan Murray’s second season in the NBA has been filled with ups and downs, but those inconsistencies are baked into a price tag that’s now $1,100 cheaper than his season average of $6,100. Murray plays huge minutes on a nightly basis, and although his production comes and goes, his upside at $5,000 is massive, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate it should be.

Despite numerous signs pointing to value here, Murray is projected to be severely underowned on DraftKings. He is projected to be in just 9.30% of lineups but has an 14.70% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his lack of consistent production, Murray’s ceiling is massive at $5,000.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Bulls-Pelicans: Jordan Hawkins

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 5.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,200

With McCollum out and Jose Alvarado suspended, Jordan Hawkins could be in for a big role tonight for a Pelicans team lacking ball handling. Hawkins ended up playing 23 minutes on Friday, and while his playing time is inconsistent, he’s proven to be a solid fantasy contributor when on the court. Hawkins is falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings.

Hawkins projects for only 20.44 fantasy points tonight, but Stokastic’s tools currently have him optimal 5.30% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, yet only 1.70% of lineups are projected to roster him.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock with on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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