NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Wembanyama Encore! (February 25)

Sunday wraps up the weekend with a seven-game featured slate, tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Victor Wembanyama and multiple Spurs and Jazz in one of the most fantasy-friendly matchups on the slate. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, MMA and NASCAR) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, February 25

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Victor Wembanyama: San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 53.38 | FanDuel: 54.53
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 29.3% | FanDuel: 6.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,600

The FanDuel salary algorithm is actually giving some respect to rookie Victor Wembanyama. The 20-year-old just became the youngest player with a five-by-five and the 15th player to ever accomplish this statistical milestone.

On Friday, in 6:59 of first quarter action, the French phenom tallied 16 points, seven rebounds, one assists, three steals and two blocks for 40.9 fantasy points.

Clearly this level of production is no fluke, though the efficiency is something that will not be sustainable. In 51 games, Wembanyama has 28 double-doubles and a pair of triple-doubles, including one with 10 blocks. Last but not least, he is the only player other than Michael Jordan with five blocks and five steals in consecutive games.

This matchup has a 240.5 projected total, which is vying for the highest of the slate. Currently on FanDuel, there are five Utah Jazz players among the eight most popular options, including the top three of Taylor Hendricks, Collins Sexton and Lauri Markkanen. The DraftKings one-two combo is currently Hendricks and Keyonte George, with five total Jazz among the top 11 most rostered plays.

Who knows exactly what coach Will Hardy has planned, but if Hendricks draws another start, he is going to be a near must-play. George has started the last four games, and it would seem his baseline minutes have increased to the low-30s, which is a steal for his current salary and this matchup. Collin Sexton continues to start, but he has played between 24 and 26 minutes in eight of the last 10 games, with outliers of 28 and 34. Still, he is a tournament option across the DFS sites, particularly where he is eligible as a shooting guard.

John Collins gets a bump if Walker Kessler stays out of the starting lineup, as it takes an effective rebounder off the court. The former Atlanta Hawk is a foundational play who lacks upside, having topped 40 fantasy points just three times in his last 16 games but failing to surpass 45. Markkanen is in a similar situation, with fewer than 30 fantasy points in six of his last 10 games and highs of 50 and 47 during this timeframe.

Turning the attention back to San Antonio, this is a salary sensitive situation, with Tre Jones (19.5%), Devin Vassell (16.0%) and Jeremy Sochan (12.9%) the three most popular options on FanDuel. DraftKings has Sochan (25.8%), Keldon Johnson (16.8%), Vassell (16.7%) and Jones (15.8%) slotting in among the top 16 most popular plays.

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Dejounte Murray: Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 42.49 | FanDuel: 41.01
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 27.5% | FanDuel: 29.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $8,200

Trae Young is out with a finger injury, and Onyeka Okongwu is missing a third game with a toe injury that is likely to sideline him for another three weeks.

Dejounte Murray goes from a tick under one fantasy points per minute to nearly 1.3 when Young it off the court. Normally that would be wildly enticing, but this is a tough matchup for the Hawks.

Orlando easily dispatched the Pistons 112-109 in Detroit last night, with a game that only got close towards the end after the reserves frittered away a double-digit lead and the first five needed to come back into the game for the final few minutes to close out the victory. Franz Wagner played 31.7 minutes, Paolo Banchero logged 29.1 and Jalen Suggs had 26.1, with no other key contributors topping 26 minutes. The Magic have slipped a little on defense, but the shorthanded Hawks are projected for just 112.5 points on their home floor, which is dramatically below their 121.3 season average.

Similar to his former teammate Collins, Murray is more of a safe floor option than one who we can expect to top 50 fantasy points. Looking at the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool, Murray has a 32% boom probability of topping 48 fantasy points, but he is negatively leveraged with a 27.5% rostership rate and only a 16.3% probability of landing in the optimal lineup. Though, he has a solid 17% bust rate, which would be failing to score 37 fantasy points.

FanDuel is a similar story, with the former University of Washington stalwart projecting to be on 29.8% of all tournament rosters but with only a 20.6% probability of being in the optimal lineup. He also has more risk on the blue site with a 30% likelihood of falling under 36 fantasy points and a lower 23% probability of tallying more than 46 fantasy points. Caveat Emptor!

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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Paul George has a favorable matchup against the visiting Sacramento Kings, but he is someone to target against in the sports wagering market with the under on his 31.5 points + rebounds + assists prop (PRA), which is currently available at odds of -115 on FanDuel.

This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets.

The next-best odds at the most popular books are in the -140 range or at a similar -120 to -125, but with 30.5 PRA.

Per the true odds of -130 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a steady 3.9% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.

NBA Bet Pro currently has George projected for 33.8 minutes, 23.26 points, 5.39 rebounds and 3.74 assists for 32.39 PRA. That median projection is slightly above the 31.5 target, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.

After sitting out on Jan. 31, George has logged nine games, averaging 27.1 PRA in 32.6 minutes. We know he was dealing with a nagging injury during this stretch, but it is good to see that he fell short of the 31.5 PRA threshold in all but two of these tilts. Both of those outings were in his last five performances, where he averaged 30.2 PRA in 34.4 minutes of action. While he was a participant in the All-Star Game, he did have that week to regain his health.

It makes sense that there is a new baseline expectation. However, there are still many ways this game could play out with George falling shy of 32 PRA — including poor performance, foul trouble, a lopsided game or the Clippers being back to full health and being able to take it easy, with George, Kawhi Leonard and James Harden playing fewer minutes than they will see in the playoffs.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show starting at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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