NBA DFS Leverage & Optimizer Picks: Trust in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (March 25)

A five-game NBA slate awaits DFS gamers on Saturday, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections to see how to best handle high-and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in DFS tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for today, including Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, to help you build optimal NBA DFS lineups.

NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | March 25

Our top projected leverage play on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Phoenix Suns forward T.J. Warren looks like one of the best tournament plays on the slate in his matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers.

While he’s not in the greatest spot, as he lines up against a stout 76ers defense, Warren is getting completely forgotten about tonight. Priced at a cheap $3,500 price tag on DraftKings, Warren is only expected to appear in 5% of lineups despite the clear indications that he has worked his way into Phoenix’s rotation.

Priced similarly on FanDuel at $3,700, Warren isn’t getting enough love there, either, despite 18.4% of lineups expected to roster him. While he barely cracked the Suns’ rotation after getting traded in the Kevin Durant deal, Warren has played 20 and 29 minutes over the past two games. On a slate with limited value, there is no reason for Warren to be so unpopular tonight. Warren is projected for optimality 14.4% of the time on DraftKings and 31.8% of the time on FanDuel, making him one of the top leverage plays on the slate


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Denver Nuggets wing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is also getting overlooked tonight. Priced at only $4,600 on DraftKings and $5,100 on FanDuel, the former University of Georgia star isn’t at the ownership rate he deserves on either site. While KCP has always been more of a solid player than a spectacular one, there’s no doubt he is right there with Warren as far as leverage goes.

In a good spot against a Milwaukee Bucks team that has struggled against opposing shooting guards, Caldwell-Pope is projected to be optimal 17.1% of the time on DraftKings and 28.7% of the time on FanDuel. Despite his high optimality percentages, NBA DFS players aren’t getting to KCP enough, as he is projected for only 10.2% ownership on DraftKings and 20.2% ownership on FanDuel. KCP isn’t usually the type of player to break a slate, but he offers surprisingly good leverage on both sites, and there’s a lot to like about him in tournaments this evening.

On the flip side, Sacramento Kings forward Harrison Barnes rates poorly from a leverage perspective on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and might be worth fading in GPPs. At only $5,000 on DraftKings, Barnes is projected to find himself in 34.1% of lineups with an optimality percentage of 24%.

With Sacramento point guard De’Aaron Fox questionable to play after injuring his hamstring last night, Barnes’ affordable price tag will surely make him a popular value tonight in a great spot at home against Utah. With other mid-range plays going under-owned, however, it might be wise to avoid him and go elsewhere in tournaments.

Situations to Monitor

As of this writing, there are only a few situations to monitor. Along with Fox, James Harden is questionable for Philadelphia with head coach Doc Rivers suggesting that Harden would probably not play tonight. Lauri Markkanen is questionable for Utah while Khris Middleton holds that same questionable tag for Milwaukee after missing last night’s game. With multiple teams on back-to-backs, it’s fair to assume more news will be coming out later.

NBA injury news is always unpredictable, and it seems like every night we get unexpected scratches, sometimes at the last minute. That’s especially the case on weekends when beat reporters and staff are less aware of team situations. Tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock show on YouTube at 7 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis as late NBA news breaks and changes to the best NBA DFS picks and plays.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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