Hey, everyone! Lindy here. In this article, I’ll guide you through the key aspects of the main NBA DFS slate on Tuesday, Jan. 23. Keep in mind that news might influence the dynamics, so consider this as a guide rather than the ultimate source. I’ll highlight important decision points for tonight’s slate to assist you in anticipating developments and optimizing your lineups. Let’s explore the NBA DFS lineup tips for today! For additional NBA DFS advice, be sure to explore our NBA DFS lineup generator or industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: The LeBron-Less Lake Show
Coming off a tie-for-first in the flagship $15 tournament on DraftKings last night, I’m feeling extra grateful to you all for tagging along for my content on the daily, both here in the written streets and on YouTube live shows. Your feedback makes it easy to come to work every single day and try to offer up the best, most actionable information I can, and if you want to recap yesterday’s win or how my article spoke exactly to the lineup that eventually split for that $30,000 score, you can do so here. But I wanted to start off today off by showing my appreciation to you, the reader; without you, I don’t get to do what I do. And I LOVE what I do.
With that said, on to today we go! It’s a five-game slate with plenty of potential early value as the Knicks frontcourt could be without Isaiah Hartenstein, the Jazz backcourt could see a tick up after downgrading Kris Dunn to questionable, and the Nuggets get to enjoy the track meet-type atmosphere that comes with playing the Pacers. But those options all pale in comparison to the last game of the night where the Lakers will be without LeBron James for the evening.
What exactly does that open up? Well, what doesn’t it open up is the better question when looking at James’ rates over on DunksAndThrees.com this season:
Thirty-four minutes per game, 29% usage, 34.2% assist rate, 19.4% defensive rebound rate. Yeah, that’s an absurd amount of production and minutes that must be funneled to the rest of this squad with LeBron out of the lineup, and hitting on the right pieces here will be paramount in order to finish first this evening.
Let’s begin with Anthony Davis and take a look at his performance in the four games without LeBron this season, courtesy of StatMuse:
No fewer than 38 minutes in any of the outings, 30-plus points in three of the four, a triple-double last time out in Utah and the normally absurd quantity of blocks and steals showing up in the box score. It should come as no surprise then that his 1.45 DraftKings points per minute rate ascend to 1.49 in 525 minutes without LeBron on the floor this season. And at just 26.3% ownership, Davis somehow has positive leverage in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool, making him a can’t-miss cash and tournament option in your DFS lineups tonight.
But Davis is far from the guy on this team pulling the most ownership, which leads me into the typical “how many Lakers are too many Lakers for a lineup” question I get in these spots. So let’s delve into the team as a whole by looking at their ownership on DraftKings using Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool:
Rui Hachimura is the presumed fifth starter on the night and thus the player pulling the most ownership due to the SF/PF eligibility and egregiously low $3,700 salary. Right off the bat, I’m slightly concerned that Hachimura’s minutes could be extremely volatile due to Jarred Vanderbilt’s and Christian Wood’s presence. Darvin Ham has been willing to go the hot-hand approach in this type of spot with whoever’s gelling with Davis the most, and that’s presumably what leads to just a 20.34% boom percentage, drastically lower than the other starters we’ll discuss. So it’s early, but with Hachimura’s 55.9% current ownership, I’d be looking to undercut that to some extent and spread it around to earlier options from earlier games — or heck, even cheaper options in this very same game.
Taurean Prince is currently one of the more underutilized pieces relative to the optimal percentage on today’s slate. He’s off the injury report entirely, and I am pretty sure he will step right back into his 30-ish-minute role here for defensive purposes due to the wing matchups versus Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. His 0.63 DraftKings points per minute do not inspire the warm-and-fuzzy feelings you’re looking for on slate with tons of value, but walking into an outlier shooting performance at $3,800 on DraftKings could give you tons of leverage off the Hachimura ownership. Consider an overweight position to him so long as he’s in that starting unit.
Lastly, the two chalkiest plays of the slate are D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves, and they’re the easiest to talk about because they’re just better plays than everyone else in action tonight. Here are their rates without LeBron on the floor this season by way of AddMoreFunds.com:
With Russell at 1.26 DraftKings points per minute and Reaves at 1.10 with LeBron off the floor this year, it’s easy to see why they’re the second- and third-most rostered players on the evening. In fact, I’m far more inclined to jam them at their prices than the cheaper Hachimura, as the minutes and usage should be all they can handle barring a blowout. So to round out the discussion, my Lakers priorities relative to ownership right now: 1) Russell 2) Davis 3) Reaves 4) Prince 5) Hachimura
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Nuke of the Night
Lauri Markkanen SZN. Want to hear all the reasons why? Tune into NBA Live Before Lock Show over on the Stokastic YouTube channel, and best of luck tonight!
