Thursday’s NBA action brings us one day closer to the end of the regular season, with a five-game featured slate tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Josh Giddey.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Thursday, April 6
The top five teams are now locked into their places in the Eastern Conference standings, and the bottom five teams are eliminated. That leaves the Brooklyn Nets and the four teams in the Play-In Bracket still figuring out their final order.
In the Western Conference, Denver has clinched the best record, with Memphis and Sacramento all but assured of finishing second and third. The final Play-In Tournament ticket is still in flux, with Oklahoma City and Dallas being tied and the Thunder holding the tiebreaker. The fifth through eighth seeds are in a volatile situation, with the Clippers, Warriors, Lakers and Pelicans all within one game in the standings. The Timberwolves are currently the third team in the Play-In Tournament but could still end up with a home game.
Core Play of the Day — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Oklahoma City-Utah Jazz
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 50.63 | FanDuel: 51.11
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 32.6% | FanDuel: 41.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $10,600
It would appear that the Thunder want to make the postseason, and they are 7-point road favorites in Salt Lake City tonight. That seems to indicate we will be getting a normal game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against a nominal defense. This year he made the leap towards being a top-10 player in the league, and he certainly is from a fantasy perspective, averaging 50 fantasy points per game for the first time in his career. There is unlimited value tonight, so we should have no trouble pairing Gilgeous-Alexander with at least one and maybe two other top-shelf options.
Josh Giddey is a strong option and averaging around 1.2 fantasy points per minute with Gilgeous-Alexander, while rookie Jalen Williams has come on strong over the last two months and is close to a fantasy point per minute himself.
On the other side of this matchup, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk, Kris Dunn, Luka Samanic and Ochai Agbaji are all viable fantasy-point-per-dollar options, with Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton and Rudy Gay in mothballs.
Miami Heat-Philadelphia 76ers
There is a chance that the Heat could overtake Brooklyn for the sixth slot, as they are 1.5 games behind but still have three remaining, while the Nets are down to their last two games. Jimmy Butler has been outstanding over the last two games, and we know he gets riled up against his former teams. It would make sense to see the regular starters for the Heat, and then if the game is out of hand, coach Erik Spoelstra could send in the second unit.
Philadelphia is locked into the third seed, but Joel Embiid is the presumed favorite for the MVP, so we are likely to see him play tonight. If he starts, expect around 30 minutes, but it would be crazy for coach Doc Rivers to push him. Tyrese Maxey (neck), De’Anthony Melton (calf) and P.J. Tucker (calf) are all questionable, and there is a good chance one or more of this trio sits. That should open up additional punt options, but we will need to see the starting lineup first.
Denver Nuggets-Phoenix Suns
It would not be a surprise to see most of the key Denver players rest at least once before the end of the season now that they have clinched the Western Conference. That means big minutes for the backups and potential alternatives to the Cleveland chicanery. This is another situation where we are waiting on news.
Edit: Jokic and Murray have been ruled out.
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The Suns will likely play their starters for the first half since they are still getting familiar with Kevin Durant, but it is hard to like much from this team on the main slate. For the late slate, some of the understudies will be interesting differentiation plays — for those savages still playing two-game slates at this point in the regular season.
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Chris Paul is an intriguing option in the sports wagering market, with an assist prop total of 9.5. It is hard to envision the 37-year-old veteran of 18 NBA seasons playing his full minutes tonight, with the Nuggets likely resting their starters and nothing to be gained by the Suns overworking their key contributors. Paul has eight or fewer assists in four of his last six appearances.
NBA Bet Pro has Paul projected for 33.0 minutes and 8.14 assists. This equates to a 59% chance that he falls below the 10 assists needed for tonight’s milestone, and at -130 at BetMGM, the numbers work out to a solid 4% expected ROI.
Did you know that you can get two free months of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Cleveland Cavaliers-Orlando Magic
Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro and Dylan Windler are out.
Ricky Rubio and Robin Lopez will be interesting options if they start, as that will give them a realistic chance at 26 to 28 and 20 to 24 minutes, respectively. If they are coming off the bench, it is hard to see them playing more than 20-ish minutes in this situation. Raulzinho Neto is also likely to be capped around 24-ish minutes, though this trio should produce a fantasy point per minute while they are on the floor.
Lamar Stevens, Cedi Osman, Mamadi Diakite, Dean Wade and Isaiah Mobley should see the bulk of the minutes, and each is near the minimum salary on every DFS site.
Orlando is eliminated from the playoffs, but we should still see their starters in this home game. Paolo Banchero is the Rookie of the Year frontrunner and likely to get full minutes for the rest of the games this season. Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner, Markell Fultz and Cole Anthony are solid mix-and-match options in tournaments.
Edit:Â Banchero, Carter, Wagner, Fultz and Harris have all been ruled out.
Portland Trail Blazers-San Antonio Spurs
Portland has been resting players for a couple weeks, and now half of its fill-ins have injury designations. Keep tabs on the injury reports, as this could be a better team to mine value from than Cleveland.
It is hard to trust anyone from San Antonio, but if enough players are ruled out — as expected — we could find some nice backcourt options, along with a wing player or two.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today
Tonight is going to be a headache, but there is a strong chance that those who are prepared for the chaos will be rewarded handsomely.
Get ready for the slate with all of the latest analysis and information by tuning in to the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by Sorare.
