Monday kicks off the week with the first pair of knockout games for the NBA In-Season Tournament, tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Jaylen Brown and several of his teammates are foundational plays with Kristaps Porzingis out of action, while De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis stand out in the nightcap. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, December 4
Jaylen Brown: Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 42.81 | FanDuel: 41.35
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 35.0% | FanDuel: 46.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $8,200
Tonight the Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis as they take on the Pacers in Indiana for the first game of the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament knockout round. This is one of the best fantasy matchups in the league, as the Pacers are first in pace of play and last in defensive efficiency over the last 30 days. Even crazier, the Indiana offense is scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions, giving the team a +1.0 net rating during this timeframe.
Jaylen Brown has a similar floor and ceiling from a fantasy perspective to Jayson Tatum, but at a 20% discount on FanDuel and a 25% savings on DraftKings. Clearly we can roster both players together, as they also have top-5 median fantasy point projections tonight as well.
Al Horford is a strong play on DraftKings with power forward eligibility, though he is not as appealing on FanDuel, where he is competing with three other center-only players. The trio is seeing basically equal projected popularity, so if Horford becomes the least popular, that gives him more tournament appeal as we search for differentiation on the two-game slate.
Neemias Queta and Luke Kornet are the punt options, though Tatum could also play a nominal center role when Horford is off the court. Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser are better bets to see some trickledown minutes and opportunities with Porzingis out, as the best guess is that Boston will lean towards smaller lineups.
De’Aaron Fox: Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 46.74 | FanDuel: 45.7
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 19.2% | FanDuel: 15.8%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings:$9,600 | FanDuel: $10,500
This season it looks like De’Aaron Fox has leveled up, and he is averaging a tick shy of 50 fantasy points, which is 9 more fantasy points than last season. Most of this is on the strength of a career-best 30.3 points per game, which is the fourth-best mark in the league. New Orleans is a middle-of-the-road team when it comes to defensive efficiency, allowing 113.2 points per 100 possessions.
Tonight we can expect north of 36 minutes for Fox, and over his last five games, he is averaging 38.2 minutes and 22.8 field goal attempts with a 49.1% conversion rate. This has culminated in 31.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 8.6 assists, and 1.8 combined blocks and steals. He has topped 60 fantasy points in two of his last four games, which demonstrates his game-to-game upside.
Domantas Sabonis is also in play, with his ability to contribute across the box score. The reigning rebound king ranks third this season with 11.8 boards per game, behind only Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis. The Kings dynamic duo commands most of the offensive touches, but on the two-game slate, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk are viable tournament options. JaVale McGee is an extreme punt play, though he is better utilized on DraftKings where we can roster two centers.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Domantas Sabonis stands out in the sports wagering market with a -106 line on the over for his 37.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. Per the -109 “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this is a slightly positive wager at the current figure.Â
NBA Bet Pro has Sabonis projected for 35.3 minutes, 18.9 points, 12.46 rebounds and 6.53 assists, which equates to 37.89 PRA. The 27-year-old does have a bad habit of picking up ticky-tack fouls, and he has actually fouled out of two games, with five fouls in three other appearances. It is unlikely we will see playoff intensity defense tonight, but that is the lone worry for him not surpassing this milestone as long as he plays to his normal rates.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Dallas, Denver, Memphis, New Orleans, Orlando and Phoenix all played last night, and there are still several questionable players across the 20 teams comprising the featured slate player pool.
That is likely to add to the wonky nature of what is now the default level of chaos that is NBA DFS. Be sure to get all the latest news and analysis by tuning into the Stokastic Live Before Lock Show at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by Underdog Fantasy – new users, use this link to receive a first deposit match up to $100! Full details here.
