Sunday’s NBA slate brings a pair of Game 4’s with the road teams holding 2-1 edges. Contests lock at 3:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and more.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Sunday, May 7
Core Play of the Day — Kevin Durant: Phoenix Suns-Denver Nuggets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 50.45 | FanDuel: 49.53
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 23.1% | FanDuel: 44.8%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,900 | FanDuel: $10,300
Kevin Durant and Devin Booker both rose to the occasion on Friday, leading the Suns to victory in front of their fans and thusly avoiding a sweep. Chris Paul is likely out for the remainder of this series, but this dynamic duo has shown they have what it takes to keep hope alive. It is really a coinflip between these players, and while conventional thought would give Booker a slight edge since he is taking on additional point guard duties, Durant darn near had a triple-double with 39 points, nine rebounds, eight assists and a pair of blocks. Booker did best him with 47 points, nine assists, eight boards, and four combined blocks and steals.
This aforementioned pair accounted for 56 of the Suns’ 95 field goal attempts. Coach Monty Williams only played Deandre Ayton for 2.3 minutes in the final frame, opting instead to go with Jock Landale, who played two 4.6-minute stints in the fourth quarter. While there is no guarantee Landale cracks 12 minutes on Sunday, there has been precedent, which also mucks things up for the Ayton supporters.
T.J. Warren got his first postseason action while playing the entire second and fourth quarters. He should see around 20 minutes as a reasonable baseline, and coming off 26 minutes shows that he has a chance to produce double-digit fantasy points at a bargain salary. Former University of Washington stalwart Terrence Ross also was in the mix with 14 minutes, launching six 3-point attempts and going 2 of 7 from the field in total. This is a thin play, but he could produce a viable score in a short period of time.
Josh Okogie started, but he played only 10 minutes and did not return after subbing out with 9:34 remaining in the third quarter. He is focused on defense, so it is hard to be excited about his fantasy prospects. Landry Shamet was another reserve who popped up for significant minutes, getting 25 as he helped with a little offensive facilitation in the absence of Paul. Cameron Payne is still rusty after a balky back held him out of nearly the entire Round 1. He has played in just four games over the last month but should be trending upwards as the starter in place of Paul. Just have realistic expectations, as this is not the plug-and-play spot most gamers were expecting from the veteran.
Jayson Tatum: Boston Celtics-Philadelphia 76ers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 51.17 | FanDuel: 48.93
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 33.7% | FanDuel: 30.6%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $10,600
After losing Game 1, the Celtics have won two consecutive games and are looking to press their advantage in Philadelphia. This will not be an easy task, even though Boston is favored by 3 points. Aside from the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second, Boston led the entire game. However, it was a close one, with the average margin being a tick over 6 points.
Jayson Tatum once again led the way, and he was stellar after his Game 2 dud. The 25-year-old reached the 50-fantasy-point plateau for the third time in his last four appearances, and he is likely to make another foray there on Sunday afternoon. This postseason, Tatum is averaging 38.0 minutes and 20.0 field goal attempts, which has culminated in 26.2 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists, along with 1.9 combined blocks and steals.
Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon look like reasonable fantasy point-per-dollar options, though the savvy gamer will limit this trio to just two per roster. Al Horford continues to get it done, and it is hard to believe he will turn 37 in early June. Robert Williams III has played 20, 22 and 16 minutes this series, with four fouls limiting his court time on Friday. It appears that as long as Horford keeps producing, Williams is going to be blocked from earning significant minutes.
The biggest variable, of course, is Grant Williams, who played just four minutes in Game 1 but saw 29 minutes in Game 2 and 23 minutes on Friday. If his shot is falling, he will stay on the court; if it is not, then he is likely to cap out around 20 minutes unless the game becomes lopsided.
Latest NBA DFS Content
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: The Battle of Titans (May 4)
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Will There Be Double Elimination? (May 3)
- FanDuel Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Paul George (May 3)
- DraftKings Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Donovan Mitchell (May 3)
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Joel Embiid + Jalen Brunson (May 2)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Nikola Jokic continues to amaze this postseason, and tonight we can look at his 50.5 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) prop. Across eight playoff games, the two-time NBA MVP is averaging 37.6 minutes and 28.0 points, 14.3 rebounds and 9.0 assists for 51.3 PRA.
In this series, the only game where he did not reach this lofty threshold was the opener, when he played only 33 minutes in an easy Denver victory. Even with the limited playing time, he still had 24 points, 19 rebounds and five assists for 48 PRA, NBA Bet Pro currently has Jokic projected for 40.8 minutes, 29.09 points, 14.07 rebounds and 10.71 assists, good for 53.87 PRA.
This wager has a 59% expected success rate, and the over currently costs only -110 at BetMGM. This play projects out to a steady 3.8% expected ROI.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Joel Embiid: Philadelphia 76ers-Boston Celtics
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 52.72 | FanDuel: 52.15
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 17.8% | FanDuel: 15.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $11,200
Although he was semi-tentative with his sore knee, MVP Joel Embiid played 39 minutes and racked up 30 points, 13 rebounds, three assists, four blocks and a steal. He had touches on most of his possessions, which should not be a surprise, as he is the heart and soul of this team. It is fun having the Cameroonian on the same slate as Nikola Jokic because it makes for a real decision point, particularly on FanDuel, where we can roster only one of the MVPs.
James Harden has struggled from the field over the last two games, going 5 of 28 (17.8%), though he does get credit for authoring the Game 1 victory, without Embiid, when he was 17 of 30 (56.7%), including 7 of 14 from behind the arc. The Beard should be on the court for around 40 minutes in a competitive game, and he will have his hand in plenty of buckets.
De’Anthony Melton had the hot hand, and he played himself into extra minutes by splashing four 3-pointers. Of course, he also had four steals and a block, so do not expect a repeat fantasy performance. Melton still should be in the mix for 20 to 24 minutes, and at nearly 1 fantasy point per minute, he is still a solid option. Tyrese Maxey has faltered this series, sinking just 20 of 54 (37.1%) field goal attempts. This has not cost him any minutes, and there is a chance that some game log watchers may shy away. Do not be one of them.
Tobias Harris had five fouls, which cost him about 6 to 7 minutes of run. He is better when Embiid, Maxey or Harden are out, but even with that trio seeing heavy burn, the do-it-all forward should still be able to contribute 20 to 23 combined points and rebounds. Georges Niang and P.J. Tucker are lottery tickets, coming into prominence for those building north of 20 lineups.
Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets-Phoenix Suns
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 68.14 | FanDuel: 63.52
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 52.6% | FanDuel: 26.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,900 | FanDuel: $12,200
Nikola Jokic did everything but get the victory on Friday, with 30 points, 17 rebounds, 17 assists and a block in 42 minutes. He has tallied 70 or more fantasy points in two of the three games this series, and there is nothing the Suns can do to slow him down. Not to bury the lede, but once again the two-time league MVP is the best fantasy point-per-dollar option on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jamal Murray has been the ultimate sidekick for the Joker now that he is finally healthy for the NBA’s second season for the first time in years. This series he already has a pair of 50-fantasy-point performances, and he essentially gets every minute that Jokic is off the court to showcase his talents. Aaron Gordon gets the minutes, but he knows his role as the “glue guy” doing a little of everything, and most of those things are not rewarded with fantasy points. Still, he is capable of popping off for 30 fantasy points at any time.
Bruce Brown Jr. is similar to Gordon in that he can contribute across multiple positions. This gives him a variety of ways to increase his playing time and broaden his fantasy fortunes. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another minutes guy, but defense is his role on this team, so with limited offensive possessions in the slower postseason tilts, he is hard to be excited about.
Michael Porter Jr. had his third 40-fantasy-point outing of the playoffs on Friday, but he has yet to record more than 30 fantasy points outside of those performances. In the first two games of this series, he had just 16 combined field goal attempts. Yes, he is viable, but he also feels like disappointment waiting to happen. Jeff Green wraps up the rotation as a reasonable discount dandy.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Embiid (right knee) and Smart (left ankle) are once again questionable, but both are expected to play. Paul remains out for the Suns, which is a shame … but also a springtime tradition at this point in his career.
Be sure to let us do the heavy lifting for you by tuning into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock show at 2:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by BetMGM— new customers sign up by going through this link and receive 30 days of Stokastic+ Premium and a first bet winback up to $1,000.
