NBA Player Props: Michael Porter Jr. Just Needs Time to Produce (May 7)

There are two NBA playoff games today, both Game 4’s of 2-1 series. The Celtics and Nuggets are trying to get up 3-1 on the road, while the 76ers and Suns look to even their respective series at two games apiece. Ahead of these high-stakes matchups, let’s take at today’s best NBA player props on NBA Bet Pro — and keep in mind that Celtics-76ers tips at 3:30 p.m. ET, while Nuggets-Suns is a standard start of 8 p.m. ET.

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Today’s Top NBA Player Props from NBA Bet Pro | May 7

3. Devin Booker Under 2.5 3-Pointers (+110, BetRivers)

After Booker’s Game 3 performance in which he hit five 3’s and scored 47 points, the odds on under 2.5 makes for Game 4 have moved to +110. And with NBA Bet Pro projecting strong regression to his mean, there is serious value on said under. Yes, Booker has gone over 2.5 3’s in six of his eight postseason games, but he only averaged 2.1 makes from deep in the regular season and hit at least three in way fewer than half his games (26.4%). Plus, he only followed up a three 3-pointer game with another four times in the regular season.

Booker is still projecting extremely well from a scoring perspective (30.3 points in NBA Bet Pro), but that is not coming from his 3-pointers. With a projection of just 2.2 makes, the under is getting a 6% EV on a 50% win expectancy.

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2. Michael Porter Jr. Over 5.5 Rebounds (-113, BetRivers)

This line is right on track with Porter’s season average and his tendency to grab six-plus rebounds. He did so in exactly half his games this year and is 5-for-8 on the over in the postseason. That said, Porter recorded three and four rebounds in Games 1 and 2 before grabbing 12 in Game 3, and NBA Bet Pro sees that latter game as a good indicator of tonight’s production — he is getting 7.0 in the model at the moment.

A lot of this has to do with Porter’s projected minutes. He only got 30 and 23 minutes in the first two games and then jumped up to 36 in Game 3. Tonight he is projecting for 37.5, and given his per-minute rebound average, that playing time pushes him past the seven-board mark. As long as he gets the playing time, Porter is the Nuggets’ second-most productive guy on the glass.

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1. Jaylen Brown Under 3.5 Assists (-104, FanDuel)

Brown’s prop is red here due to Marcus Smart being questionable, but the expectation is that Smart will play this afternoon. NBA Bet Pro is treating Smart as playing and projecting him for 35.1 minutes, which obviously helps the projection for Brown’s under, so be sure to keep an eye on Smart’s official status.

This is another line that matches the season average, but Brown was more susceptible to the under on 3.5 assists than the over — he recorded four-plus in 40.3% of games in the regular season. And though Brown went over in every game of this series (including games where Smart played a lot of minutes), NBA Bet Pro has four Celtics exceeding Brown’s assist projection of 2.9. Again, Smart is the leader in assist projection for Boston, so his playing is going to shift Brown’s model numbers. But assuming Smart plays, Brown’s under on 3.5 assists has an 8% expected ROI and a 55% win rate.

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Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.