NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: It’s Jokic Day So Long As He Plays (March 30)

With so many injury question marks on tonight’s NBA DFS slate, you must do your homework and stay on top of the news. Be sure to check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to gain insight into how breaking news can impact the slate. Additionally, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are valuable tools that can aid you in making NBA DFS picks and building strong lineups that have the potential to outperform your competition.

NBA DFS Projections & Optimizer Picks Today | March 30

High-End Tier

Nikola Jokic ($11,600) is currently the highest-projected player on the slate by 5 full fantasy points, but he’s listed as questionable on the injury report and the Nuggets play the Pelicans in the late game on a two game slate. For those willing to take the risk, Jokic is projected for 32% ownership, a 47% chance of booming and 45% chance of optimality, per the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400) has the second highest projection on the slate despite a tough matchup with the Celtics. Antetokounmpo is projected for 29% ownership, a 31% chance of booming and 31% chance of optimality.


Aaron Gordon ($5,700) currently has the best value score on the entire slate and will look even better if Jokic sits. Gordon is projected for 41% ownership, a 22% chance of booming and 52% chance of optimality.

Marcus Smart ($5,400) has great value and leverage scores. Smart is projected for 38% ownership, a 12% chance of booming and 44% chance of optimality.

Al Horford ($5,000) projects well point-per-dollar and will project even better if Robert Williams, who is questionable on the injury report, ultimately sits. Horford is projected for 36% ownership, a 10% chance of booming and 45% chance of being optimal.

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Value Tier

On a slate that lacks any great value, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,400) is a fine option. Caldwell-Pope is projected for 33% ownership, a 6% chance of booming and 38% chance of optimality.

Thomas Bryant ($3,000) is not expected to see much of the floor if Jokic plays, but if Jokic sits and Bryant gets the start he will become the top value option on the slate.

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Neil Orfield
Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.

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