NBA DFS Studs: Today’s Best Offensive Play Isn’t Who You Think (November 24)

There is a manageable eight-game slate tonight in the NBA’s return from Thanksgiving. With plenty of pending injury news, more value is likely to open up throughout the day. One of tonight’s most expensive options is also questionable, which will have a huge impact on the slate. For now, let’s go over some of the top high-priced NBA DFS plays like Tyrese Haliburton and Nikola Jokic.

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NBA DFS Studs: Tyrese Haliburton and Nikola Jokic

Stud No. 1 – Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $12,900; FanDuel $12,500
  • Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings 66.2; FanDuel 63.2
  • Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings 3.6%; FanDuel 3.2%

Jokic is the highest-projected player on the slate as always. The Nuggets are still without Jamal Murray, and Jokic has produced 2.01 DraftKings points per minute in the eight games that he has played without Murray. It is difficult to roster Jokic, however, because his salary has become so expensive and because of his matchup against Houston. While Jokic’s game is virtually matchup-proof, Houston and Denver both play at a bottom-10 pace. Houston is also in the top 5 in defensive rating this season. The pace is the big concern, as even Jokic is likely to produce at a below-average rate in this matchup thanks to limited possessions.

Stud No. 2 – Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,100; FanDuel $11,400
  • Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings 59.7; FanDuel 58.5
  • Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings 17.3%; FanDuel 16.2%

Antetokounmpo is questionable for tonight’s game against Washington. If he is able to play, this is the unusual slate where he actually looks like a better option than Jokic. While Jokic has to deal with Houston’s slow pace, Antetokounmpo faces a Washington squad that has played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season while also allowing the third-most points per 100 possessions. Antetokounmpo has produced 1.55 DraftKings points per minute in 12 games played alongside Damian Lillard this season, and he is likely to produce at a higher rate in this matchup. If he misses tonight’s game, then Lillard, Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis will all become priorities.

Stud No. 3 – Tyrese Haliburton: Indiana Pacers vs Detroit Pistons

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000; FanDuel $10,600
  • Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings 55.9; FanDuel 54.0
  • Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings 7.1%; FanDuel 19.5%

Haliburton has been the best offensive player in the NBA to date, slightly edging out Jokic and a tier above everyone else. His salary has increased as a result, and he looks different depending on which site you are playing. On DraftKings, he is a strong contrarian play at just 7% ownership. If Antetokounmpo sits, it will be a bit easier to roster Haliburton, but if Giannis plays, it is difficult to prioritize Haliburton over him. Haliburton’s elite upside makes him appealing at the ownership discount in GPPs, however. On FanDuel, Haliburton is a priority with or without Giannis on the slate, as he is less expensive than he is on DraftKings. For the season, Haliburton has produced 1.62 DraftKings points per minute, a 26.1% usage rate and 49.8% assist rate. Tonight’s game against the Pistons has a 243.5-point total, which is the second highest on the slate behind Washington and Milwaukee.

There are eight games tonight and plenty of injury news has yet to come out, so be sure to check out Stokastic’s Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.

Adam Scherer
Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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