Best Christmas Day NFL DFS Week 16 Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel

The NFL has a rare Christmas three-game slate with some fun tournaments and another DFS puzzle to solve. Continuing our NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing Christmas Day DFS picks and analysis for the double-header, with extra attention paid to star running back Christian McCaffrey.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the DFS action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and Christmas Day DFS analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Christmas Day slate featuring the Raiders at the Chiefs, Giants at the Eagles and Ravens at the 49ers. So get ready for the Christmas Day NFL triple-header, DFS-style!

NFL DFS Picks at DraftKings & FanDuel: Christmas Day

NFL DFS Picks for Christmas Day: Quarterbacks

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections give Jalen Hurts a median fantasy point projection that is 5 more than Patrick Mahomes. While that is not insurmountable, it is a 20% difference. This also has Hurts with the best fantasy-point-per-dollar ratio on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Currently OddsShopper shows that this duo is tied for sixth in the MVP race at +2500, behind not one, but TWO 49ers who are also on this slate.

Somehow the Las Vegas Raiders of all teams have the 10th-best passing DVOA, though they allowed Mahomes to roll up 298 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 12 and Tua Tagovailoa got to them for 325 yards and two touchdowns in Week 11, though he did throw an interception. Kansas City has not clinched the AFC West just yet, but it will be all but locked up if they win on Christmas. The team has lost three of their last five games, so they need some momentum to rejuvenate the offense.

This will be the first time that the Eagle and Giants have squared off, though they will reprise this matchup in New York for Week 18. Hurts and the Eagles are double-digit favorites, though Philly has dropped three-consecutive games, including allowing the Seahawks to sneak by them last Monday in Seattle. Though he continues to produce rushing touchdowns, Hurts has topped 207 passing yards only once in the last six games.

New York has a bend-don’t-break passing defense, but the team gets gashed on the ground, with the fourth-worst rushing DVOA. Only Dak Prescott (404), Tagovailoa (308) and Brock Purdy (310) have thrown for more than 225 yards against this squad.

Speaking of Purdy, he has a tough matchup against the Ravens, who boast the second-best passing DVOA. Of course San Francisco has the best passing offense in the league, which is why Purdy is currently the odds-on favorite to win the MVP. Coach Kyle Shanahan will be scheming a variety of plays to get his quartet of playmakers the ball, so we should not worry too much about the former Mr. Irrelevant.

The term irrelevant probably applies to rookie Aidan O’Connell who tossed four touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football, racking up 49 points in the first half on the way to a franchise record 63, all of this on a short week after losing a 3-0 game. Kansas City has the fifth-best passing DVOA and no opposing quarterback has thrown for more than 285 yards. This game is in Arrowhead Stadium, which will be cold and loud. Sorry, Kid.

1. Hurts: So good!
2. Purdy: May not be a fluke at this point.
3. Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
4. Lamar Jackson: Tough matchup in San Francisco.
5. Tommy DeVito: Fun story, but he has thrown for more than 200 yards only once and has just two touchdowns in the last three games.
6. O’Connell: Keeps Jimmy Garoppolo at bay for one more week and maybe the season. Las Vegas will be quarterback shopping soon enough.

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NFL DFS Picks for Christmas Day: Running Back

Christian McCaffrey has an outside shot at the MVP, he is $2,700 more than any other running back on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel. The best lineup with him is 3 median fantasy points lower than the best lineup without him on both sites.

Saquon Barkley is the second most expensive running back on both DFS sites, but expect the Eagles to sell out to stop him in order to protect their shredded secondary. Volume is not going to get it done in this matchup and he will need to find the end zone once to breakeven.

Isiah Pacheco is back after missing two weeks with a shoulder injury. He is expected to be a full go and has an appealing matchup against the Raiders 22nd ranked rushing DVOA. Jerick McKinnon is out, so that is one less red zone competitor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire did nothing to steal the job away from Pacheco while he was on the shelf.

Josh Jacobs is questionable after missing last week with a quad injury. He has had a couple extra days to recover but is also dealing with an illness. Technically, the Raiders are still in the postseason mix, but they will pretty much need to win out in order to punch their ticket. Jacobs did not practice at all last week, and this week he was in for a limited session on Friday before sitting out again on Saturday. Caveat Emptor.

1. McCaffrey: The best Christmas gift ever, but it will not be cheap.
2. Pacheco: Will be the most popular option on the slate.
3. D’Andre Swift: Single-digit fantasy production in five of his last six, but this is a get right spot.
4. Barkley: Needs to get two touchdowns to make the faders feel unlucky.
5. Jacobs: Just how trustworthy is he?
6. Gus Edwards: Very touchdown dependent, and he has to deal with Jackson in the red zone.
7. Justice Hill: Back moves in the backup slot with rookie Keaton Mitchell out and Melvin Gordon III signed from the practice squad.
8. Kenneth Gainwell: Three touchdowns since Week 1, but no double-digit fantasy point performances — that is hard to do.
9. Ameer Abdullah and Zamir White: In play even if Jacobs starts, they need him to be ineffective, but that is not out of the question.
10. Edwards-Helaire: Not getting cute since McKinnon is out, but this is a longshot.
11. Jordan Mason: Would need a gift touchdown, ‘Tis the season!

NFL DFS Picks for Christmas Day: Wide Receiver

This is where we can make or break things from a differentiation standpoint. There are a dozen pass-catchers that could potentially fall into a George Pickens-like performance.

1. Rashee Rice: Point per dollar, he wins the top spot.
2. A.J. Brown: Always a threat for a multi-touchdown day.
3. Davante Adams: Averaging 11 targets over his last five games, with three of 80-plus yards and a pair of touchdowns.
4. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel: Coinflip.
5. Wan’Dale Robinson: Just $3,900 on DraftKings, drop him below Beckham on FanDuel.
6. Zay Flowers: Just two targets last week, but he had been on a nice run prior. Dealing with a sore foot but expected to play.
7. Jakobi Meyers: Touchdowns in two of the last three games, just one game of more than 50 yards in his last eight appearances.
8. Odell Beckham Jr.: King of the big moments when in the spotlight.
9. Darius Slaton and Rashod Bateman: WR3s in the eyes of their respective QBs, but solid salary savers who should each get a couple targets.
10. Tre Tucker: Don’t expect another two-touchdown game, but the team will try to get him the ball in space a couple times.
11. Justin Watson: The apple of Mahomes’ eye.
12. Hunter Renfrow: Last guy worth mentioning by name, but only because he could fill the void left by rookie Michael Mayer (toe) who has been ruled out.

NFL DFS Picks for Christmas Day: Tight End

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1. Travis Kelce: Significantly better projection than his peers, really should be considered as a WR1.
2. Isaiah Likely: Each of the next four guys has the chops to outperform Kelce if he stumbles.
3. Dallas Goedert: Four targets in his return from injury and nine last week.
4. George Kittle: Battling a trio of teammates for high value touches.
5. Darren Waller: Expect at least half a dozen targets, touchdowns would be a miracle.
6. Austin Hooper: Has the job to himself with Mayer out, Jesper Horsted will miss this one as well.
7. Noah Gray: Only TE2 worthy of a specific mention.

NFL DFS Picks for Christmas Day: Defense

This should be fun, with two defenses projecting for more fantasy points than the actual best on field defense.

1. Philadelphia D/ST: Tommy Cutlets gives up sacks like it is his job with 33 in the last half dozen games.
2. Kansas City D/ST: Taking on a rookie in a must win game, in the December cold.
3. San Francisco D/ST: Jackson averaging 2.6 sacks and 0.8 picks per game over the last five.
4. Baltimore D/ST: Excellent unit, would slide ahead of the 49ers if this were a home game.
5. Las Vegas D/ST: Maxx Crosby playing through injury, but expect him to suit up. This is not the same Magical Mahomes of prior seasons.
6. New York Giants: It would take some serious holiday magic for this motley crew to be the top fantasy defense.

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