Early NFL DFS projections for Week 5 are live at Stokastic, so let’s dive into the main slate and see which tight end picks and fades are being backed by the data. As we get closer to kickoff on Sunday, we will take another look at the updated NFL DFS projections and see how the landscape of the daily fantasy football slate on DraftKings and FanDuel has shifted.
Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks & Fades for Week 5
As far as pure fantasy point projections go for NFL DFS Week 5 tight ends on DraftKings and FanDuel, we see Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews and Sam LaPorta in the top four spots on both sites for the main slate.
Let’s look through the rest of Stokastic’s NFL DFS tight end projections data for this week’s matchups in hopes of finding the highest-upside targets relative to their salaries.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks | Week 5 Sunday Update
With news that the Lions are likely to be without Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions have become a lot more interesting of a team to target for Week 5. That includes tight end Sam LaPorta, who is now right alongside Travis Kelce at the top of NFL boom probabilities on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Tyler Higbee, Chig Okonkwo and Dallas Goedert are also projecting well and find themselves in the top five in tight end boom probability on DK.
Be sure to also check out Stokastic’s other Week 5 tools before lock:
🏈 Stokastic YouTube (LIVE)
🏈 NFL Contest Sims
🏈 NFL Homepage
🏈 NFL Lineup Generator
🏈 NFL Player Projections
🏈 NFL Ownership Projections
🏈 NFL Boom/Bust Probability
🏈 NFL Top Stacks Tool
🏈 Stokastic Discord
NFL DFS Picks | Week 5 DraftKings & FanDuel Tight End Projections
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Yet to reach his customary DFS ceiling we have seen over the years, Travis Kelce has still put up serviceable numbers while logging the highest target share at TE through his first few games of the season. At time of writing, Kelce is sporting the highest Week 5 boom probability on the DraftKings slate, not solely at the TE spot but the entire player pool. On FanDuel, he is the number one tight end and second overall (behind Justin Jefferson) in boom probability for Sunday’s road battle with the Vikings.
This should be an entertaining game and will be stacked heavily for Week 5 NFL DFS, with the over/under the highest of the week at 53 points. As is typically the case with Kelce and Patrick Mahomes, ownership projections will have to be strongly considered. The star tight end is currently pegged for over 21% ownership on DraftKings and close to 15% on FanDuel. We should also not forget about the talented tight end on the other side of this matchup, as Minnesota’s T.J. Hockenson is significantly cheaper and projected for lower ownership.
Darren Waller, New York Giants
Darren Waller is a curious case for Week 5 DFS. Obviously, the Giants have been a total flop as a team so far, and Waller has not done much of anything through his first four appearances of the season, with a grand total of 15 receptions for 153 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
Still, Waller has a healthy 20.1% target share in spite of the disastrous overall start for New York, and this may not be a spot to shy away from on the road against the potent Dolphins. The Giants are huge underdogs in the NFL odds (+11 as of now) in a game with an over/under of 49.5 points, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a game script in which Daniel Jones is forced to air the ball out more than usual against Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and company. Waller’s salaries have come down slightly on DraftKings and FanDuel as well, with the tight end now priced at $5,400 on DK and $6,100 on FD.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
In terms of point-per-dollar value, Dallas Goedert is rating out favorably for Sunday’s game against the Rams. The early season production has been poor for the 28-year-old, who only has 13 receptions for 88 yards and has not found the end zone yet in 2023 — his 17% target share ranks him just outside of the top 10 among all tight ends thus far.
Perhaps this meeting with Los Angeles will be Goedert’s chance to make a bigger impact offensively. We have seen him connect with Jalen Hurts for spike weeks in the past, and he is playing the second-most snaps of all TEs in the league. Heading into Week 5, Goedert’s prices have dropped from Week 4 ($4,200 on DK and $5,500 on FD) and he currently has the second-highest NFL DFS boom probability of the tight end player pool on DraftKings.
UPDATE: With Amon-Ra St. Brown doubtful and Josh Reynolds questionable, Detroit’s Sam LaPorta could be called upon for extra opportunities in Week 5.
NFL DFS Fades | Week 5 DraftKings & FanDuel Tight End Projections
Durham Smythe, Miami Dolphins
While the Dolphins are in a nice-looking situation against the Giants, Durham Smythe is not getting much love as far as NFL DFS player projections go for Week 5. At time of writing, he has a projection of just 5.7 fantasy points at $3,000 on DraftKings and 4.6 fantasy points at $4,800 on FanDuel.
With Tyreek Hill always commanding a lot of looks, Jaylen Waddle back in the mix, Raheem Mostert heavily involved and the emergence of De’Von Achane, there are a lot of mouths to feed in this Miami offense. Smythe may struggle to lay claim to any kind of worthwhile opportunity share so long as the rest of their primary playmakers are healthy. Even at his low asking prices, there are other tight ends with higher upside potential that DFS players can look towards on DK and FD this weekend.
There is sure to be more player news and updates that come out over the next few days, which could shake up the slate in terms of the best NFL DFS values. We will add a Sunday morning update to the top of this page with a new look at the projections data.
We should also remember that accurate player projections are just one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
More Stokastic NFL DFS Week 5 Tools 🏈
NFL Contest Sims
NFL Homepage
NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
Stokastic YouTube
Stokastic Discord
