Understanding when to eat ownership chalk and when to fade the heavily rostered players is key to NFL DFS. Whether you’re playing one lineup or an entire portfolio, knowing player and combinatorial ownership will help you avoid being over-leveraged to a player or team. Let’s take a look at Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections to see who the field is playing the most at each position for Week 5’s main NFL DFS slate at DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Ownership Report: DraftKings NFL DFS Main Slate Week 5
Quarterback DFS Ownership
The top of the quarterback board for NFL DFS Week 5 has a wide range of options across the salary spectrum. Jalen Hurts ($8,000) is expected to be the highest-owned quarterback at 12.3%, with Patrick Mahomes ($8,200) third on the list at 12.3% ownership. The key to rostering Mahomes or Hurts is the value available at other positions. NFL DFS players are finding ways to spend down elsewhere to shove in Hurts and Mahomes, arguably the two most explosive dual-threat QBs. The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs both have road matchups that could be closer than their earlier games this year, and if those games stay tight it could push these QBs to hit their ceilings.
Tua Tagovailoa’s ($7,100) 13.2% ownership on DraftKings is sandwiched right between Hurts and Mahomes. We’ve seen the possibilities of the Miami Dolphins offense. Tua and the Miami spend-ups are expensive, but they are always capable of putting up huge, tournament-winning scores. The top five owned quarterbacks for Week 5 NFL DFS are Matthew Stafford ($5,600) at 8% and Kirk Cousins ($6,900) at 7.3%. It will come as no surprise that Stafford’s Los Angeles Rams and Cousins’ Minnesota Vikings are playing the Eagles and Chiefs, respectively. There’s no doubt that with four of the top five owned quarterbacks coming from those games, they will be matchups to watch for NFL DFS.
Running Back DFS Ownership
If you aren’t looking at Tua and the Miami Dolphins’ passing attack, there is still plenty to like about their ground game. The field certainly thinks so, making the explosive De’Von Achane ($6,100) the highest rostered running back at 21.5% ownership. The numbers is astounding given Achane’s price and the lack of attention to the rookie back just two weeks ago. He burst on the scene against the Denver Broncos in Week 3 and chipped in more explosiveness last week against the Buffalo Bills. Two other running backs in Achane’s price range are getting owned, as well. David Montgomery ($6,600) is right there with Achane at 20.1% ownership after Dan Campbell used him in a workhorse role in Week 4. Joe Mixon ($6,600) is at a similar price point and is picking up 17.8% ownership in the Cincinnati Bengals matchup with the Arizona Cardinals.
The top five running backs in terms of ownership for NFL DFS in Week 5 are Bijan Robinson ($7,700) at 16.6% and Kyren Williams ($6,700) at 14.4%. Robinson’s price has held steady throughout the season, but we’re seeing the first-year rusher get more attention as the Atlanta Falcons start to lean on him more. Robinson is taking over more and more snap share from Tyler Allgeier in the team’s backfield. On the other hand, Kyren Williams’ price and ownership continue to soar as he grabs ahold of the fulltime duties for the Rams. They moved on from Cam Akers just ten minutes before the NFL DFS slate locked in Week 2, and Williams has starred ever since. The price keeps jumping on Williams, but he continues to hit value or more every week.
Wide Receiver DFS Ownership
Achane is the highest-owned running back at the moment and the Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill ($9,000) tops the list at wide receiver with 20.3% ownership. Hill had a rare down week against the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, but the field expects that to change. NFL DFS players are currently getting to him at a 20.3% rate. Hill is followed up by Justin Jefferson ($9,400) at 20.1% and Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900) at 19.3%. The presence of Hill and Jefferson at the top of the ownership list at the position makes it clear that the field is finding spend-down options in other places in order to jam in the top producers. Chase’s salary is much lower than Hill and Jefferson, but the NFL DFS is thinking he can finally break out with Tee Higgins on the shelf.
Marquise Brown ($5,000) at 16.1% ownership and Garrett Wilson ($6,000) at 14.6% round out the top five at the position. Brown has maintained solid production on the Arizona Cardinals offense, which is impressive given their lack of talent. The same can be said for Garrett Wilson, who is having a strong year despite Zach Wilson’s re-insertion into the New York Jets starting role following the Aaron Rodgers injury. The price is right for these two productive wideouts and the field is taking notice given their ownership rates for NFL DFS in Week 5 on DraftKings.Â
Tight End DFS Ownership
The ownership in the top five of most positions in Week 5 is pretty spread out. That isn’t the case for tight end, where Travis Kelce ($7,600) is dwarfing the field at 21% ownership. His price tag is simply too cheap for a tight end with the best floor and ceiling combination. Dallas Goedert ($4,200) and Zach Ertz ($3,500) come in behind Kelce at 12.9% and 12% ownership, respectively. It’s a huge drop-off in ownership, but it’s commensurate with their potential.
The next highest-owned tight ends in NFL DFS this week are expected to be Mark Andrews ($5,500) at 10.9% and Tyler Higbee ($4,100) at 10.6%. We haven’t seen Andrews have a spike performance in 2023, but the field knows how capable of he is of doing so. If Andrews and Lamar Jackson can get rolling it should impact Andrews looks going forward the rest of this season. There is a similar story to be told for Tyler Higbee. He has been one of the Rams’ most consistent pass catchers over the years and was expected to be that again this year, especially with Cooper Kupp starting on the IR. Higbee has ceded targets to Puka Nacua in the early going, but the potential is there and the price is right for the veteran tight end. The field is clearly noticing given his 10% ownership on DraftKings for Week 5.
Defense DFS Ownership
There has been a lot of debate in the NFL DFS community early this year on how much, if any, chalk you should eat at defense. The heuristic in the past has been to fade chalk at the position given how volatile the distribution of fantasy points is in these spots. That still makes sense, but Stokastic’s NFL DFS sims, in addition to other outlets, have been identifying great spots to use high-owned defenses. That said, the question is a bit moot this week given how spread out the ownership is at defense for Week 5 NFL DFS.
The Tennessee Titans ($2,400) are pegged for 9.1%, leading the position. They’re followed by the Dolphins ($3,600) at 8.9%, who are all over this list at every spot this week. The ownership is even more condensed from there, with several teams in the 7-8% range. The top five is rounded out by the Pittsburgh Steelers ($2,700) at 7.8% and the Denver Broncos ($3,200) at 7.7%. The Patriots ($3,100) and the New Orleans Saints are picking up 7.4% each.
