Tonight’s Showdown slate sports some sweet NFL pick’em value, and we are turning to PrizePicks NFL for Vikings-Eagles Thursday Night Football. The focus for this matchup is the passing games, and the Eagles in particular are seeing some correlative value with their aerial attack. Plus, OddsShopper and PrizePicks are teaming up to offer new users a great promo: You can use the PrizePicks promo code ‘STOKASTIC17′ when you sign up to get a deposit match up to $100 and a free month of OddsShopper Premium! Now let’s dive into some plays for PrizePicks’ NFL pick’em contest for TNF.
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NFL PrizePicks Pick’em Predictions | September 14
Quez Watkins M/L 1.5 Receptions
Quez Watkins M/L 15.5 Receiving Yards
It makes sense to pair these up because odds are if Watkins gets two catches, he is also getting 16 yards or more. He is pretty distinctly the No. 3 receiver for the Eagles — No. 4 pass catcher, assuming Dallas Goedert wakes up tonight — and has plenty of downfield ability to threaten Minnesota, so the second prop could easily be gone in one pass. That downfield ability could also set up some stuff underneath.
Even in a quiet game from the Eagles passing attack last week, Watkins caught two of two targets for 17 yards against a solid Patriots defense. The Vikings do not project to be as good defensively (even though they held Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in check until the fourth quarter in Week 1). Jalen Hurts should have more time in the pocket, and the pressure from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith may also be enough to get Watkins some gaps. Again, he likely only needs a couple catches to knock out both of these picks, and Stokastic projects him for 2.27 catches and 28.3 yards receiving tonight. Both plays have at least a 54% chance of hitting.
Best NFL PrizePicks Play: Quez Watkins More Than 1.5 Receptions
Best NFL PrizePicks Play: Quez Watkins More Than 15.5 Receiving Yards
Jalen Hurts M/L 252.5 Passing Yards
This is pretty lofty for Hurts, and his passing yards projection has wavered all day between 250 and 260 — right now the median number is a modest 251.7. That said, simulations are still liking him to surpass 252.5 more often than not, giving the more a solid 53% win expectancy. Plus, there is a bit of correlation with the first two plays here, so might as well go all or nothing to land a 5x payout.
As stated before in the Watkins section, the Vikings were not necessarily carved up by Mayfield and the Bucs, but they did allow Mayfield to complete passes to a wide variety of pass catchers and did not generate much pressure at all. In fact, Pro Football Focus placed their pass rush as the fourth worst in Week 1. Even though Minnesota’s coverage on Mike Evans was decent enough and Tampa recorded fewer than 200 yards through the air, that lack of pressure is going to kill the Vikings against Hurts.
Hurts was lethal in clean pockets last season, ranking fifth in the NFL in passer rating when kept clean. With Philadelphia’s offensive line, Hurts figures to have time to pick apart an OK Vikings secondary and get over 252 yards, also boosting Watkins’ numbers in the process.
Best NFL PrizePicks Play: Jalen Hurts More Than 252.5 Passing Yards
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