Thursday MLB action is going against the NFL, so there is a frontloaded featured slate locking at 7:07 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Tonight RHPs Kevin Gausman and Kyle Bradish are the top options, with the Minnesota Twins looking like the contrarian stack in tournaments.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 14
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Kevin Gausman vs. Texas Rangers — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $46
The Rangers have seen their run production decline after a torrid first half of the season. Over the last 30 days, Texas is scoring just 4.15 runs per game, though it still has exhibited power upside. The absence of Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung takes two All-Stars out of the lineup, and with Leody Tavares dinged up, Robbie Grossman is in a far more prominent role than the Rangers would like to see.
Though RHP Kevin Gausman has fallen out of Cy Young contention, he still has a 3.28 ERA, 217 strikeouts and 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) that would make all by the top aces in the league jealous. Only twice in his last 14 outings has the venerable veteran allowed more than four runs, and even against Texas, we can see the oddsmakers are respecting him with a 3.5 implied run total for the Rangers.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Kyle Bradish vs. Tampa Bay Rays — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $45
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has been impressed with RHP Kyle Bradish, as the second-year starter has been a key reason for the Baltimore success this season. Only twice in his 26 starts has he allowed more than four runs, and his 3.03 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are both top-10 marks. The only thing keeping him from being a frontline DFS ace is that he “only” is recording one strikeout per inning. Jose Siri just landed on the injured list, and with Manny Margot already hurt and Wander Franco suspended, the Rays are stumbling towards the finish line, as the offense just can’t compensate for all the injured pitchers as well. Tampa Bay is still not an easy matchup, but this is a series that can really galvanize the Orioles as they look to the postseason.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins at RHP Jose Urena — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
Weather looks iffy in Colorado, with no other pivot options on the short slate. As such, the savvy move could be to focus on the games getting underway in the 7 o’clock hour. We are likely looking at the last hurrah for RHP Jose Urena, who is on his third team of the season. He started out with Colorado before being released at the end of April. Washington then picked him up and had him in Triple-A for 15 starts before releasing him as well in early-August. The White Sox signed him to a Triple-A contract a couple weeks later, which brings us to today.
Urena started last Saturday in Detroit against the Tigers. He logged four innings, allowing half a dozen baserunners and striking out three on 75 pitches. Over his nine-year career spanning 817 innings in The Show, Urena was never one for strikeouts, tallying just 6.0 per nine innings. He is more of a junkball pitcher who limits home run power but still allows extra-base hits and lots of contact.
The Twins have a projected lineup with four hitters who have a 10.1% walk rate or better against right-handed pitching this season. They also have a fair amount of power, and their strikeout-happy lineup should be able to make contact tonight. If the Coors Field game gets rained out, that leaves just three games on FanDuel and Yahoo, while DraftKings is including the second game between the Yankees and Red Sox. Fortunately, there are ample options to mix and match for differentiation, with Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa and rookie Royce Lewis the core four to build around. Alex Kirilloff and Matt Wallner have above-average power against opposite-handed hurlers, and Willi Castro always has the platoon advantage as a switch-hitter.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Chicago White Sox vs. RHP Kenta Maeda — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
The White Sox are a wild card tonight, but if we exclude the Giants and Rockies, things are getting sparse. Toronto and Baltimore are likely the next two best stacks after Minnesota, so let’s give a quick look at RHP Kenta Maeda. The 35-year-old has made a dozen starts since returning to action from an early-season injury. He has been solid overall with a 3.70 ERA, 4.13 FIP and a .239 batting average against in 73 innings. He has allowed more than three runs only twice in this stretch, but he has allowed a home run in 11 of the 12 games.
This season in 187 matchups against fellow right-handers, Maeda has allowed a .250 ISO. Look to Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez as the trio to target, as all excel against same-handed pitchers.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
While we will want to employ RHP Kevin Gausman in the DFS world, we can look to hedge out some of our risk in the sports wagering market.
Gausman has a strikeouts prop that is currently sitting at 7.5, with the under at -150, but looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the -163 “true odds” of Gausman falling short of this milestone indicates this line is inefficient by 3%. He is coming off a 10-strikeout effort but has seven or fewer strikeouts in five of his seven most recent appearances. The great thing with Gausman is that he does not chase strikeouts, but he is also so good that he has a top-3 K/9 rate. The projected Texas lineup has a 20.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, but it is still a favorable one.
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Final Thoughts for Thursday, September 14 | MLB DFS Picks
It looks like there will be storms at Coors Field and a good chance of rain. That is troublesome, as it is also the final game of the night, so there are no pivots. For those of you bold enough to be playing MLB DFS tonight, do not get distracted by Thursday Night Football and forget to monitor the weather.
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