Projections are UP for Week 1 NFL PrizePicks in Stokastic’s Pick’em Pro! Some more/less numbers are getting huge value right now early on, and with Week 1 not too far away, now is a great time to take a first look at some NFL pick’em plays for PrizePicks. And what luck — there are TWO awesome opportunities for PrizePicks players. One is a free square on a superstar quarterback for Week, and the other is a great PrizePicks promo: Use the PrizePicks promo code ‘STOKASTIC’ when you sign up to get a deposit match up to $100!
Now let’s dive into some plays for PrizePicks’ NFL pick’em contest.
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NFL PrizePicks Pick’em Predictions | Week 1
Dak Prescott O/U 0.5 Passing Yards
PrizePicks is offering a killer free square for the first Sunday Night Football game of the 2023 NFL season. Needless to say, a Dak Prescott-led Cowboys offense is going to produce at least 1 yard passing, barring Prescott suffering an injury between now and the Week 1 battle with the Giants.
Without the 99.99% discount, Prescott’s PrizePicks projection is 252.5 passing yards, Stokastic has him at 243.2 yards in Week 1. That is not good enough for the standard line, with a 60% chance of falling shy of 252.5, but it is plenty to start a PrizePicks entry with the free square. Lock Prescott in and move on.
Best NFL PrizePicks Play: Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Passing Yards
Bijan Robinson O/U 71.5 Rushing Yards
While this play is not a free square by any means, it is blowing up the Stokastic’s Pick’em Pro model. As of Monday, Aug. 28, Bijan Robinson is projecting for 113.4 yards rushing as the Falcons take on the Panthers. Now, that may seem like a massive overreaction to a top-10 rookie running back, especially given the production of his backups Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, but there are a few things to keep in mind.
For one, the Falcons finished 2022 as the No. 1 run-blocking team in the NFL on Pro Football Focus. The offensive line is also essentially intact, and given the state of the Atlanta passing offense, this team projects to be about as run-heavy as it gets in today’s NFL. On top of that, Patterson is questionable for Week 1; if he does not suit up, a ton of carries will end up with Robinson — and that may be the case even if Patterson plays.
Keep in mind that Patterson being ruled in will likely shift Robinson’s projection a bit, and Carolina is projecting as an average to slightly above-average run defense. However, a projection of 113.4 yards against a 71.5 more/less number means there is a ton of wiggle room. As such, Robinson exceeding 71.5 has an 88% win expectancy right now in Stokastic’s Pick’em Pro.
Best NFL PrizePicks Play: Bijan Robinson Over 71.5 Rushing Yards
Nick Chubb O/U 90.5 Rushing Yards
Stokastic projections are not nearly as high on Nick Chubb as the pick’em industry seems to be, at least for this week. The depth chart may tell a story of Chubb dominating usage this season — especially coming off 1,500-yard rushing season — but Deshaun Watson with a normal-ish leadup to Week 1 is likely going to make Cleveland more pass-focused than it was in 2022. The Browns pass catchers are OK, not great; however, their A+ offensive line will give Watson more time than he ever had in Houston.
Cleveland’s Week 1 opponent in Cincinnati is also pretty stout up the middle, and Chubb went for just 34 yards on 14 carries in the game he played against the Bengals last year with Watson under center. For the record, Chubb was 3-for-6 on 90.5 rushing yards in Watson’s starts, compared to 7-for-11 in games without him. And Watson was far from electric in those six games, whereas he should get out of the gate better in 2023.
Stokastic’s Pick’em Pro projects Chubb for a mere 75.2 yards rushing, giving the less on 90.5 a 79% expected win rate.
Best NFL PrizePicks Play: Nick Chubb Under 90.5 Rushing Yards
