Sleeper NFL pick’em has been very kind to us this year, and the fun isn’t stopping anytime soon: Week 8 is kicking off with a couple of specials on Buffalo superstars. On top of that, the Stokastic projections have identified a couple of other great spots as well for Buccaneers-Bills Thursday Night Football. Here we will sort through and find some money-making leverage spots, and don’t forget: New users with Sleeper can enter the Sleeper Fantasy promo code ‘STOKASTIC4′ when they sign up to get a deposit match up to $100! Now let’s dive into some plays for Sleeper’s NFL pick’em contest.
NFL Sleeper Pick’em Predictions | Week 8 TNF
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Josh Allen M/L 0.5 Passing Yards (NEW CUSTOMER SPECIAL)
Sleeper has a couple of nice discounts on Bills stars tonight — the other one is a Stefon Diggs reduction to 65.5 receiving yards, which is sitewide. However, we’re leaning into the new customer special on Allen:
If you’re a new customer at Sleeper Fantasy and you are looking for some action on tonight’s Buccaneers-Bills game, this is the perfect place to start. Just follow Stokastic’s Sleeper link and enter the code STOKASTIC4 (if not already applied), and you’ll have your initial deposit doubled! Then simply take advantage of your deposit match by laying some scratch on Allen to go for more than 0.5 passing yards (plus the next two picks), and there you have it; you’re in with Sleeper NFL pick’em and ready to start building your bankroll!
Oh, and for those curious, Allen has played in 84 career NFL games and has never thrown for less than 5 yards. Only four times has he failed to reach triple digits. Not that his chances of hitting the more here were in question, but just in case, he has basically a 100% chance of starting your first Sleeper entry off right.
Best NFL Sleeper Play: Josh Allen More Than 0.5 Passing Yards (1.77x)
Dalton Kincaid M/L 3.5 Receptions
This pick is both one of the safer plays on the TNF slate and a slightly mixed bag in terms of value. On the one hand, Kincaid is now the clear TE1 on the Bills following Dawson Knox’s injury, and last game he saw eight targets. On the other hand, Kincaid’s 1.51x multiplier is limiting his ROI ratings in the Stokastic model. But a 60% win rate still looks solid, and with him projecting for the second-most receptions on the Bills tonight (4.42), Kincaid makes for a solid play.
Aside from Kincaid’s role expanding, there is also the matter of his insane efficiency this year. Allen has targeted his rookie tight end 27 times through six games — Kincaid caught 25 of them. That is a 92.6% catch rate, which is second in all of football, and he is the only non-running back in the top 9 of that category. Now, a few more targets coming his way probably will lead to Kincaid seeing some regression in that regard, but it is nonetheless a good sign that he has made the most of his opportunities.
All told, Kincaid has caught at least four passes in four of six games, and that was largely with Knox playing (albeit underperforming). Now that he is the go-to guy in the tight end room, four receptions seems like a safe play.
Best NFL Sleeper Play: Dalton Kincaid More Than 3.5 Receptions (1.51x)
Rachaad White M/L 46.5 Rushing Yards
First things first, Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin are both expected to play today, so Tampa’s passing offense should at least be competent. And that is going to be an important part of this play because game script is setting up for a pretty pass-heavy game from the Buccaneers. They are 9.5-point underdogs tonight in a game with a middling 43.5 total — 17 implied total for Tampa versus 26.5 for Buffalo — so Vegas is expecting a fairly convincing Bills win that borders on a blowout.
As long as it stays bordering on a blowout without reaching that level, this game does not seem good for a White rushing exhibition. Stokastic is projecting Mayfield to throw 39 times, which is currently the highest of any Week 8 quarterback projections. Allen, meanwhile, is getting 38 attempts in the model, so Stokastic believes this one will be high flying.
White also has not exactly been the poster child of rushing efficiency when he has gotten his chances. Only twice in six games has he gone for more than 46.5 yards rushing, and his 3.2 yards per carry are in the bottom 8 of the league (41 eligible players). At that clip, White would need 14.69 carries to reach 47 yards — a manageable number but one he has only reached in half his games, and Stokastic has him getting 14.1 tonight. That is leading to a yardage projection of 40.75, giving the less a 56% chance of hitting. And at the dead-even Sleeper multiplier of 1.77x, that makes this the No. 1 ROI play of Buccaneers-Bills that is not a free square.
Best NFL Sleeper Play: Rachaad White Less Than 46.5 Rushing Yards (1.77x)
All together, this three-pick Sleeper entry has a 4.73x payout.
