Here come the points. Dolphins-Eagles could be the game of the year, and Sleeper NFL pick’em is making it a little easier for us by offering a free square on one of the top receivers in the NFL. The Stokastic projections have identified other great spots as well, so let’s break them down and figure out the best options for making money with Sleeper pick’em. On top of that, new users with Sleeper can enter the Sleeper Fantasy promo code ‘STOKASTIC4′ when they sign up to get a deposit match up to $100! Now let’s dive into some plays for Sleeper’s NFL pick’em contest.
NFL Sleeper Pick’em Predictions | Week 7 SNF
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A.J. Brown M/L 0.5 Receiving Yards
Sleeper’s 99% discount on Brown’s receiving yards is a great place to start for Sunday Night Football entries
His original number of 81.5 (which has since dropped to 80.5) was already a slight lean on the more, with Stokastic projecting him for 84.06 yards receiving tonight against the Dolphins. Now with the discount, it’s a lock-and-move-on play.
For all of the handwringing of Brown’s first couple of games (some by Brown himself), he and Jalen Hurts have gone back to gelling the last four games — Brown’s lowest yardage output was 127 in that stretch. The game total for this one is also comfortably the highest of Week 7 at 52, and going up against the Dolphins is going to require offensive fireworks from Philadelphia. Brown will be involved, likely heavily.
But again, that is not all that important to this pick since the number is more/less than half a yard. And if Brown is injured either before the game or during it, this pick will likely be voided. There is no risk here — Brown will get a yard.
Best NFL Sleeper Play: A.J. Brown More Than 0.5 Receiving Yards (1.77x)
DeVonta Smith M/L 5.5 Receptions
This is not a correlative pick per se since Brown’s number is just 0.5, but assuming Brown continues to put up huge stats, Smith may remain down the pecking order a bit too much for a 5.5 projection. Smith has come down quite a bit since Brown took off, with three of his last four games resulting in fewer than 50 yards receiving. That said, even when he put up 131 in Week 2, that came on just four catches and five targets. All told, Smith has fallen shy of 5.5 in four of six games.
The total is of some concern when fading Smith, and Hurts is top 10 in the league in pass attempts. However, Smith’s catch rate has taken a dive this season — in no small part to last week’s five receptions on 11 targets — so even decent target volume may not be enough to get Smith to six. For the record, Stokastic is projecting Hurts for 33.6 attempts, which is slightly below his season average, and Smith projects to see 7.2 of those. That is earning Smith 4.61 receptions in the model and a 58% chance of him falling shy of 5.5.
Best NFL Sleeper Play: DeVonta Smith Less Than 5.5 Receptions (1.62x)
When combined, this two-pick entry has a 2.86x payout.
