There are 10 games in the NHL tonight but all of Toronto, Arizona, Detroit, and Calgary are playing their second game in as many nights. They will be late providing lineup information, so Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord before lock for new roster and injury information. Nevertheless, onto our NHL DFS picks today.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Connor McDavid (EDM vs. CHI): DraftKings – $9,300 | FanDuel – $10,200
Since Edmonton hired coach Kris Knoblauch, McDavid has posted 8 goals and 18 assists in 12 games, landing 33 shots on target. That stretch has seen the superstar post a multi-point night in eight of those 12 contests as he’s gone supernova over the last month. He has skated at least 21:30 in four of his last five appearances as the ice time has stayed steady, and that always helps with fantasy upside.
Chicago is visiting Edmonton and that is a matchup that heavily favors the home side. Going back to Halloween, an 18-game span, the Blackhawks have allowed the fifth-most shots and third-most expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Their penalty kill has allowed 16 goals in that stretch, and Edmonton’s power play is more than good enough to take advantage of that situation. It is a positive matchup at all strengths for McDavid and the Oilers.
McDavid is the top center on the board, per Stokastic projections, clearing the next-closest option by over three DK fantasy points and over four FD points. He is expensive, but his sky-high projection also makes him a good point-per-dollar value. He can be used in any format, though he’ll likely carry heavy ownership in tournaments.
Robert Thomas (STL vs. DET): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $7,200
One big change to Thomas’s DFS profile this season has been adding more shots to his repertoire. His prior two seasons saw him average just 1.5 shots per game, but that number has jumped to 2.2 per game so far this season. That may not be a great total compared to other top stars, but it has helped him to three DK shot bonuses in 27 games already this season; he had two such bonuses in 73 games a season ago. It is helping him pace for 30 goals this season despite a shooting percentage lower than either of the prior two campaigns, and that’s why the additional shots are so important.
Detroit coming to town is a great matchup for St. Louis. The Red Wings are going to be without both JT Compher and Dylan Larkin due to injury, while David Perron has been suspended. Add that to Detroit having played last night in Dallas and being on a road back-to-back with a depleted lineup is a boon for the Blues.
Among all pivots on DK priced under $6,000 tonight, Thomas comes in second by fantasy point projections, and that leaves his point-per-$1,000 at an acceptable level. He is likely best used in some sort of tournament stack but even his elevated priced is fine for tonight.
Thomas is playable on FD as well but his value is worse because of his price tag, so for better value, consider Vincent Trocheck (NYR, $6,600) at a similar price.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Artemi Panarin (NYR vs. TOR): DraftKings – $8,600 | FanDuel – $10,000
Though he’s not quite on the same tear he started the season with, Panarin has six goals and six assists in his last 10 games. Importantly, he has 37 shots in that span as his career-best 4.0 shots per game this season stays somewhat consistent. What hasn’t been consistent is his ice time as he’s had games between 17-18 and 22-24 minutes over his last five outings, but that inconsistency isn’t a problem when playing DFS tournaments.
Hosting Toronto tonight is good news for Panarin and New York. The Leafs played the Islanders last night (and lost), meaning this should be a tired team visiting the Rangers. Not only that but because of injury in net, they will be turning to Martin Jones as their goaltender, and he hasn’t had a save percentage above .900 since 2018. This is a bad goalie playing for a tired team, and a team that hasn’t been good defensively for about six weeks now.
Panarin carries a top-5 projection on both DK and FD among all wingers, but his elevated price makes him a subpar point-per-dollar value option. That elevated price is likely to leave him with low single-digit ownership, though, which makes him an ideal tournament target.
Drake Batherson (OTT vs. CAR): DraftKings – $5,500 | FanDuel – $6,600
Having Tim Stützle and Vladimir Tarasenko as line mates gives Batherson arguably Ottawa’s two best playmakers to skate with and the results have been fantastic: in a little over 50 minutes together at 5-on-5, that trio is outshooting the opposition 34-25, nearly doubling them by high-danger shot attempts 17-9, and outscoring them 5-0. For his part, Batherson has two goals and five assists in his last five games, averaging 18:22 per night in ice time.
As always, facing Carolina presents a double-edged sword. The team is excellent defensively, but the goaltending remains atrocious: over the last four weeks, the Hurricanes are 31st by save percentage both at 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill. They are 26th by goals against per minute in that span despite allowing the fewest shots per minute. Batherson may not get a lot of chances, but he may not need a lot of chances to get on the board against this awful goaltending.
Much like Panarin, Batherson’s projection isn’t strong for his price but that’s also what is keeping his DK ownership projection around 2.5% on DK and just over 3% on FD. Carolina’s goaltending problems make them targets to stack against for tournaments, so Batherson can be used by himself or as part of an Ottawa line stack.
Drew O’Connor (PIT vs. ARI): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $3,500
With the team’s injuries up front, O’Connor has been moved to the top line with Sidney Crosby. In a 62-minute span with Crosby and O’Connor on the ice at 5-on-5, the team has averaged 3.9 expected goals and 40.4 shots per 60 minutes. A poor shooting percentage is keeping their goals down, but they are generating a lot of shots, and a lot of quality shots, which is what we want to see for DFS purposes.
The matchup tonight with Arizona in town is a good one for Pittsburgh. The Coyotes played in Buffalo last night (a 5-2 loss), meaning this is a tired team playing the second game of a road back-to-back. The Pittsburgh injuries have increased O’Connor’s role and led to 16:16 per night in ice time over his last 10 games, averaging 2.2 shots per game. His first 16 games saw him under 13 minutes a night and 1.4 shots per game, so the increased role has led to more shots, which is a good thing for a player this cheap.
Of all flanks priced under $3,500 on DK or $3,900 on FD, O’Connor ranks second by Stokastic’s fantasy point projections on both sites. His cheap price and great matchup is likely to drive ownership his way, but at such a cheap price, he’s fine as a one-off salary saver for tournament formats.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Roman Josi (NSH vs. PHI): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $7,900
After a slow start (for him) to the campaign, Josi has posted 11 points in 11 games over the last three weeks, averaging 3.6 shots and just shy of 2.0 blocks per game. That span has seen him reach the DK shot bonus three times and the DK block bonus twice, including both in one game once. That span has seen him be second on the team in shots per minute at all strengths, and first in total blocks by a wide margin. He has been one of the engines of their offense and his resurgence has helped him return to production levels we expect from him.
Though not to the degree of McDavid, Josi is projecting as the clear top option on tonight’s slate by clearing the next-closest defenseman by nearly 16% on DK and 10% on FD. He is projected for single-digit ownership on DK, though, and is outside the top-3 defensemen on FD. Moderate ownership and a strong projection bring Josi into play for tournaments tonight.
Mikhail Sergachev (TB at VAN): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $5,700
This will depend on the availability of Victor Hedman. The Tampa Bay blue liner left their game on Saturday, did not return, and did not practice on Monday. It seems as if Hedman will be out of the lineup on Tuesday night, but we’ll find out later in the day.
If Hedman is out of the lineup, Sergachev should step into the top power play role. Whatever improvements Vancouver has made this season, it hasn’t translated to the penalty kill as they have given up 11 power play goals in their last 13 games, and 22 in 28 games on the season. Conversely, Nikita Kucherov has been on the ice for 25 power play goals in 28 games as the top unit has been incredibly potent this season. On top of premiere PP positioning, Sergachev has 60 blocks in 29 games as he sports a career-high blocks/game mark.
Until we know more about Hedman, fantasy point and ownership projections will remain in flux. However, it does seem as if Hedman will be out and that makes Sergachev a mid-priced target on the blue line on either site.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Dustin Wolf (CGY at VGK): DraftKings – $6,900 | FanDuel – $6,900
With Dan Vladar starting last night, Wolf is expected in net tonight for the Flames. Playing their second game in as many nights is a tough spot for Calgary, but if they win this matchup, Wolf is likely to be a big reason why. He has just five career appearances in the NHL (four starts), but the 22-year-old has a .910 save percentage in that span, which is a very good start.
At $6,900 on both sites, Wolf is one of, if not the, cheapest goalies on the board tonight. He projects for low ownership on DK, coming in under 2%, and may carry similar ownership on FD. For anyone looking to take a risk in net with a cheap netminder, Wolf is one of the top options to consider.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
VGK1: Ivan Barbashev – Jack Eichel – Mark Stone
This trio has been exceptional since being assembled, outshooting the opposition by a 2:1 margin in over 62 minutes together at 5-on-5, posting seven goals in that span. They have been riding hot by shooting percentage at 16.7%, but their shot generation is so high that even 10% would lead to tremendous offensive results. Eichel alone has a seven-game point streak, registering four goals and eight assists in that span while averaging 4.3 shots per contest. Two out of the three members of this trio – Barbashev excepted – are on the top PP unit and Calgary is bottom-10 by shots against per minute on the PK over the last four weeks.
Per the Top Stacks tool, this line is coming in with positive leverage on DK, which means a higher top-2 stack probability than ownership rate. That leverage is negative on FD, but not by much, and they are projected under 10% on both sites. This is a primary stack to consider in any tournament format tonight given the matchup and ownership.
STL1: Jake Neighbours – Robert Thomas – Jordan Kyrou
St. Louis usually uses Thomas as their shutdown center and tonight that would mean facing the Andrew Copp line from Detroit. With the Red Wing injuries, Copp has been put on the top line and advanced stats site Evolving Hockey has Copp with the worst play-driving metrics of any Detroit forward expected in the lineup tonight. Having Patrick Kane on his line will not help the defensive numbers, and with the team playing their second game in as many nights, and third in four days, this should be a tired roster. Detroit is giving up the second-most power plays per game this season and at least two out of three forwards on this St. Louis line will be on the top PP unit.
This line should not have heavy ownership tonight, likely coming in around 5% or less whether on DK or FD. At a reasonable price in a good matchup, they are a mid-priced option to consider in tournaments for this slate.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
