There are just four games in the NHL tonight, but with Buffalo, Dallas, Toronto and Colorado on the docket, there is no shortage of superstar talent from which to pick. Let’s look at some of the expensive DFS options and then dig for a bit of value. As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord prior to lock for injury and roster news.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Nathan MacKinnon (COL vs. CGY): DraftKings – $9,600 | FanDuel – $10,400
Even with all Colorado’s injuries of late, MacKinnon has remained very productive, with five goals and 12 assists in his last 11 games, managing 51 shots on target. He has skated at least 20 minutes in all 11 of those outings and scored goals in five of his last eight appearances. That success has come with a change in line mates on a near-nightly basis over the last couple weeks, so it hasn’t really mattered which wingers he’s had next to him.
Calgary is not a great defensive team and its numbers have been on a slide – its last four weeks of action has seen its goals against and expected goals against per minute land in the middle of the league, and that’s nothing too concerning for MacKinnon as a matchup. The Flames do have a good penalty kill but the Avalanche are drawing the third-most power plays per game so MacKinnon should get opportunities to crack that PK.
As is often the case, MacKinnon leads the slate by NHL DFS projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, clearing the next-closest option by 21% and 29% on the two sites, respectively. Regardless of who he skates with, MacKinnon is the top option on the board and that makes him viable in both cash games and tournaments.
Dylan Cozens (BUF vs. ARI): DraftKings – $4,300 | FanDuel – $5,000
It has been a down year for Cozens when compared to last season but a lot of that is his shooting percentage. On the year, Cozens is shooting 6.5% where he shot 14.7% last season and was a career 11.1% shooter heading into this season. He should be closer to a 20-goal pace rather than the 13 goals he’s currently pacing for. Buffalo’s second-line center has also been landing more shots of late, as he had 9.1 shots per 60 minutes over the last four weeks compared to 8.0 shots per 60 in his first 13 games.
Over those last four weeks, Arizona’s expected goals against at five-on-five sits at 20th in the league and just ahead of the Anaheim Ducks. Its goaltending has been stellar and that has kept its goals against in check, but it can’t rely on great goaltending every night. Cozens is also getting top power play minutes and though Arizona also has a good penalty kill, top power play minutes are better than secondary minutes.
Among centers priced under $5,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel, Cozens ranks third and second, respectively, by NHL DFS projections. It gives him very good point-per-dollar values on both sites, and he’s coming in with less ownership than teammate Casey Mittelstadt. That makes Cozens a center to pivot to for tournament stacks.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
William Nylander (TOR at NYI): DraftKings – $8,400 | FanDuel – $10,100
Nylander went on a three-game pointless streak after starting the season with points in 17 straight contests. He has rebounded of late, though, with points in four consecutive outings, managing 5 points total, and landing 18 shots on target. That he’s still shooting so much is a great sign, even if his line’s production has taken a downturn since being moved alongside Auston Matthews. That recent four-game point streak has seen Nylander skate 21:54 each night on average.
The Islanders have been getting great goaltending this season, for the most part, and that’s helping keep their goals against down. The one area they are struggling is on the penalty kill – the Islanders are giving up 0.81 power play goals against per game, the most for any team in the league giving up fewer than 3.25 power plays per game. Nylander leads all regular power play forwards this season in shots per minute with the man advantage and is 93rd percentile in point production.
Like MacKinnon, Nylander is the top option on the slate for the wing position, leading Stokastic NHL DFS projections on both sites. The gap over the next-closest option isn’t as large as MacKinnon’s, but he’s also projected for much lower ownership. For tournament players looking to avoid heavy ownership, Nylander and his line mates are a target, particularly on FanDuel where the high price is keeping that ownership even lower than DraftKings.
Jason Robertson (DAL vs. DET): DraftKings – $6,100 | FanDuel – $7,000
It was a slow start to the year for Robertson, with just 10 points in his first 13 games, but that has improved a lot, with 14 points in his most recent 13 outings, scoring five times in that stretch. He is still not earning many minutes, but none of Dallas’ forwards earn much ice time, and Robertson does lead its attackers in ice time per game over his last 10 appearances. It may be a hollow victory but a victory, nonetheless.
Detroit is in town for tonight’s matchup and that presents a great special team opportunity for Robertson. The Red Wings give up 3.8 power plays per game to the opponent, and that’s tied for second most in the league. They have given up 22 power play goals against in 26 games, and nearly 38% of Robertson’s production has been with the man advantage. The five-on-five production has declined but Dallas’s top power play unit remains very potent.
Despite being the seventh-most expensive winger on DraftKings, and eighth on FanDuel, Robertson is carrying a top-4 projection on both sites, regardless of price. It gives him excellent point-per-dollar value, though that value could drive his ownership upwards of 20%. He can be used in all formats tonight, though tournament DFS players may want to keep that high ownership in mind.
Kyle Palmieri (NYI vs. TOR): DraftKings – $4,300 | FanDuel – $5,100
Palmieri’s line has been very high event at five-on-five, as the combined shot attempts for and against per 60 minutes is pushing 140, and anything over 130 is playing fast. On the offensive side of the puck, the trio is generating 3.7 expected goals and 2.9 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five while controlling over 56% of the expected goal share. It has helped Palmieri to a 22-goal pace, even if a lot of his scoring has come on the power play.
Being able to push the pace should help Palmieri’s line tonight as it faces a Toronto team ranked 26th by expected goals against at five-on-five and 21st by actual goals against since Halloween, a span that covers 15 games. The Leafs are also without top goalie Joseph Woll and that hurts a team that was already struggling to keep its goals against down.
Regardless of whether it’s DraftKings or FanDuel, Palmieri carries a top-5 fantasy point projection tonight for wingers priced under $5,000 on DraftKings or $6,000 on FanDuel. He is projected for single-digit ownership on both sites too, so there may not be a lot of DFS players using him and the second line tonight. It makes him, and them, tournament targets.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
MacKenzie Weegar (CGY at COL): DraftKings – $5,800 | FanDuel – $6,800
There is one defenseman in the league that has landed at least 70 shots on goal and blocked at least 60 shots in return, and it’s Weegar. He is one of just three defensemen with at least 60 shots and 60 blocks, for that matter. He has five DraftKings shot bonuses and 12 DraftKings block bonuses in 27 outings this season, as he racks up those peripherals. With six goals on the season, he is just two away from tying his previous career high, and he is pacing for 45 points. There has been good to great across-the-board production from him this year, even if he’s largely been stuck on the second power play unit.
Weegar’s lack of a top power play role is keeping his projection much lower than players that do run their team’s power play like Rasmus Dahlin and Morgan Rielly. That is also keeping his ownership very low, so he can be used in tournament formats tonight to get away from chalkier options.
Thomas Harley (DAL vs. DET): DraftKings – $3,900 | FanDuel – $4,700
One issue with Harley’s season is that he normally wasn’t getting much ice time; through the end of November, he was skating just 17:32 per game and went nearly six weeks without getting 20 minutes of ice time in any single outing. That has changed of late, as he’s earning 20:41 per night in five December games, managing two goals, two assists, 10 shots and 12 blocks. On the season, he leads Dallas defensemen in both shots and points per minute at five-on-five, and that points rate is in the 85th percentile of all regular defenders in the league, or a top-30 rate.
With NHL DFS ownership projections between 5% and 6% on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, Harley is going to be much lower owned than teammate Miro Heiskanen by orders of magnitude. This season, though, Harley has had six games with at least 14 DraftKings points where Heiskanen has had five such outings. There is upside here even without a top power play role, and that makes Harley a tournament option.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Connor Ingram (ARI at BUF): DraftKings – $7,400 | FanDuel – $7,700
It has been an excellent season for Ingram who sits with a .920 save percentage on the campaign, fourth in the league among all goalies with at least 12 starts. Going back to last season, his high-danger save percentage at five-on-five is easily in the top half of regular starters. Just this campaign alone, that mark is tied for fifth among the 30 starters with at least 600 minutes played at five-on-five. Facing Buffalo – a team that is in the bottom third of the league by shot attempts at five-on-five – may not bring a lot of volume, but the Sabres have had trouble scoring, and that should help keep Ingram from getting blown up.
Of the eight goalies on the slate, Ingram is sixth by projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel. That leaves him with modest point-per-dollar value, but it should also lead to low ownership, as his FanDuel ownership projection is just 8%. It makes him a tournament option for DFS players looking to save money in goal.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NYI1: Anders Lee – Bo Horvat – Mathew Barzal
The addition of Lee to the top line continues to pay dividends, as the Islanders’ premier trio is creating 17% more shot attempts and 33% more expected goals at five-on-five with Lee on the left wing, while its goal rate has more than doubled. The Horvat-Barzal duo has posted 33 combined points in the team’s last 13 games as the offense has taken off. It will see some matchups against Toronto’s top line tonight and that line has been poor defensively whether Nylander was on the wing or not, so this is a good matchup for Horvat and his companions.
Per Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool, this Islanders line is eighth by top-2 stack probability on DraftKings and 11th by NHL DFS ownership projections. That is giving it positive leverage on that site, something that extends to FanDuel as well. It can be used as a mid-priced tournament stack regardless of site.
DAL3: Jamie Benn – Wyatt Johnston – Evgenii Dadonov
This particular Dallas trio has been much more effective offensively at home than on the road; at home, its shot attempts rise 31%, its expected goals rise 38%, and its actual goals per minute skyrocket. We are still dealing with small samples but the team, as a whole, has been better at home than on the road when compared to the rest of the league. On DraftKings, both Benn and Johnston are listed as centers so it can help with unique builds on a short slate. With Dylan Larkin not likely to be in the lineup for the Red Wings, it should give this line easier depth matchups, as Detroit will be forced to move some of its players further up the lineup.
This trio has a bit of negative leverage on Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool, but it’s not extreme and especially not for a cheap filler line that can be used with the expensive stacks elsewhere. It may not be necessary to use all three players – leaving one of the wingers off is fine – but this has been an excellent depth line that should be able to create offense against a weakened Islanders blue line.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
