Following Rickie Fowler’s emotional win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the PGA TOUR heads to TPC Deere Run (par 71, 7,289 yards, bentgrass greens) in Silvis, Illinois, for the 2023 John Deere Classic. Our PGA DFS picks will target golfers who fit the course.
This par-71 has hosted every edition of this tournament since 2000 – excluding 2020 when the John Deere was canceled due to the pandemic – and J.T. Poston is the defending champion, winning at -21 last year.
This is a full field of 156 golfers and there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes. Let’s look at Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage PGA DFS picks for the John Deere Classic.
Leverage scores compare a golfer’s ownership to their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top-6 of the tournament. It is one of many metrics in Stokastic’s tools that use the fantasy point and ownership projections to find the top PGA DFS plays each week.
PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: 2023 John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run is very scoreable track that requires great work with both your irons and putter. Of the last five winners at this venue, three have ranked top-10 in Strokes Gained: Approach during their victories. Furthermore, three of the last five champions at TPC Deere Run have finished the event either as the leader or runner-up in SG: Putting.
Targeting efficient par four players is also a must, as each of the last four John Deere Classic winners have led their fields in Par Four Efficiency. Specifically, we should be seeking golfers who are efficient on 400-450-yard par fours, with five of the 11 par fours at TPC Deere Run landing in this range and each of the last four victors at this par-71 finishing the event top-five in efficiency on these specific holes.
Alex Smalley
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 5th
With Stokastic projecting him for decently low ownership, Smalley is one of the best expensive GPP options for the John Deere Classic. The Duke product carded a T16 at TPC Deere Run last season and has been playing excellent golf, making six of his last seven cuts with four of these finishes coming inside the top-25. Smalley currently sits at career-best No. 85 in the World Golf Rankings and is a perfect match for TPC Deere Run right now. He ranks top-five in SG: T2G, SG: APP and Par Four Efficiency over his last 24 rounds.
Smalley is a real threat to contend for his first career PGA TOUR title this weekend and is underpriced for his upside on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Chez Reavie
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 26th
After a rough stretch of missing six straight cuts earlier in the year, Reavie has been very consistent, missing only one weekend in his last 10 starts. During this stretch, the veteran has recorded five top-30 finishes – including three in a row coming into this week – and has moved himself up 73 spots in the World Golf Rankings.
Not only has Reavie been striking and rolling it well – ranking top-12 in both SG: APP and SG: P over his last 24 rounds – the course manger ranks 14th in 400-450-yard par four efficiency during this time, which as a noted above, is a critical length of hole this week, with five of the 11 par fours at TPC Deere Run falling in this range. Reavie owns a 8-for-10 record in terms of made cuts at this track with three top-20 finishes and is a tremendous target with Stokastic slating him for single-digit ownership.
Kevin Streelman
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 11th
Streelman is an elite sleeper this week with Stokastic projecting him for little ownership. The veteran isn’t expected to see much attention because he is coming off a missed cut at the Travelers, but Streelman only missed this cut by one stroke and still gained strokes on approach during this start. Including three top-30 finishes, the 44-year-old had made six of his previous eight cuts before this mishap and when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Streelman ranks seventh in SG: Approach and eighth in Par Four Efficiency, which is great news with a trip to TPC Deere Run up next.
With three top-eight finishes on his John Deere resume, Streelman has thrived at this venue in the past and he should get back on track with a quality finish this weekend.
Sam Ryder
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 4th
Combine his low expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections with his affordable price tags, and Ryder needs to be included in your GPP pool this week. The 33-year-old has been awesome at TPC Deere Run, never missing a cut at the track in four tries, most notably with a runner-up in 2018 and a T18 in 2019. On top of the impressive resume at the John Deere Classic, Ryder has made two of his last three cuts coming into this week and he has been in solid form with both his irons and flat stick, ranking top-30 in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds.
Ryder has flashed great upside this season with five top-20 finishes and has the potential to add another high finish to his 2023 resume at TPC Deere Run this week.
