The John Deere Classic is well known for the avalanche of birdies and low scores that it bestows on fans right from the starting gun. For first-round leader purposes, the easier conditions mean that to hit an outright FRL bet at this venue your player can’t be allowing any opportunities to go to waste. In this piece, we’ll be looking at some John Deere Classic first round leader picks and other DFS information.
The shorter par 71 venue is more technical in nature from what we saw last week in Detroit but still a very simple course in that if you do find the fairway off the tee you’ll be left with plenty of short iron approaches into the pure bentgrass greens.
The past five seasons at TPC Deere Run have never seen a first-round leader hit with a score worse than 63 and, with decent weather for Thursday expected, you should fully expect that trend to continue this week. There have been some high-priced first-round leaders hit at this tournament (both Roberto Diaz and Steve Wheatcroft hit at well over 100-1 as first-round leaders in 2018 and 2019) but last year proved you also don’t have to go too far down the board to find a good bet. Eventual champion JT Poston struck on Thursday last year with an opening 62 and used a savvy all-around game to fend off the numerous challengers. Poston went off around 50-1 at many sportsbooks and was coming off a great start the week prior.
As always, this column will use OddsShopper’s golf betting tools to identify the best value options for Rocket Mortgage Classic first-round leader selections.
John Deere Classic First-Round Leader Bets
The trends at Deere Run really haven’t favored one side of the draw over another for first-round leader purposes. The last six seasons have seen multiple solo FRL’s emerge from both the p.m. and a.m. draw. With winds looking mild but steady through the day splitting up allocations and bets over the two waves makes sense for this week.
Chris Kirk First Round Leader (+5000) at DraftKings
As mentioned above, we saw JT Poston ride his previous week’s momentum into a big first round at the John Deere last season and there is reason to believe that five-time PGA TOUR winner Chris Kirk can do the same in 2023. Kirk endured a slump in his game after Augusta and had missed three cuts in a row prior to last week. His approach game was showing signs of life at the US Open and he flexed in that area even more in Detroit gaining 5.9 strokes on approach alone on his way to a 14th-place finish over the weekend.
The positive momentum should help him bring in a good mentality into round one and the course sets up beautifully for a player who leads the field in proximity from 125-150 yards over the last 50 rounds. While he’s a perfectly fine outright bet at +3000 or better this week, Kirk’s early Thursday tee time should give him access to softer greens and allow him a great shot at getting out fast. At +5000 he’s more than a worthy addition to your first-round leader betting cards and is a player who looks quite undervalued this week, just given his recent form and overall PGA TOUR pedigree.
Ryan Palmer First-Round Leader (+6000) at DraftKings
Ryan Palmer First Round Top 5 (+900) at BetMGM
Another veteran coming off a solid Rocket Mortgage start, who also has an early tee time this Thursday, is Ryan Palmer. The now 46-year-old has shown he’s still got some gas in the tank left in 2023 and gained over 7.0 strokes tee to green in each of his last two starts. Those starts haven’t yielded high finishes but there is no doubting that Palmer’s long game is thriving. He’s gained strokes off the tee now in nine straight PGA TOUR events and has also gained over 3.0 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts.
Just given his consistency off the tee, Palmer is going to be dialing in short wedges into many of the holes on Thursday and if his putter gets going, he’ll have a shot to post a fantastic opener. Palmer’s been starting well of late too, shooting 66 at Quail Hollow and 64 the following week at the Byron Nelson in May. His bigger odds make him a great outright and top-five target for this Thursday’s first round.
John Deere Classic First Round Leader Longshot Bets
Longshots often hit in the first-round market and are worth adding to betting cards. You can always use OddsShopper’s tools to check out and compare odds across the major sites.
Sam Ryder First Round Leader (+10000) at BetMGM
Sam Ryder First Round Top 5 (+1400) at BetMGM
In terms of longshot first-round leader targets, Sam Ryder is never a poor bet when the scoring is expected to be low. The 33-year-old is one of the best putters on the PGA TOUR and has been dominant at times with that club in 2023. He’s been hard to trust of late in fantasy but did manage to make the weekend in Detroit (his second made cut in a row now) and showed improvement with his irons at Detroit GC over his second-to-last start at the Travelers (where he missed the cut).
Ryder’s also no stranger to TPC Deere Run, a venue where he finished 2nd at in 2018 and shot four rounds of 67 or better for the week. With his putter heating up again and some very decent (and long) odds attached for round one, he makes perfect sense to target as a longshot play and is a player to watch in the live betting market — if he’s hanging anywhere near the lead at any point this weekend
 Kelly Kraft First Round Leader (+15000) at BetMGMÂ
 Kelly Kraft First Round Top 5/Top 10 (+2500/+1200) at BetMGM
In terms of form, odds, and just overall talent, Kelly Kraft is a name that does spring out a bit when looking in this range. Kraft’s endured some miserable stretches on the PGA TOUR over the last five years or so, but always seems to keep bouncing back and finding ways to post some decent finishes — and keep his status. Kraft has been showing some signs of life as we hit the back half of the year and comes in off two made cuts, finishes that were achieved mainly on the greens where his putting has been well above average of late.
At his best, Kraft can hang with almost anyone on these short quirky setups and has career two runner-up finishes at similar venues (Pebble Beach and the Barbasol). He’s also played this event numerous times prior, shooting rounds of 63 (2022) and 64 (2016). With big top 10 and top five odds available, Kraft’s worth dabbling on to have a hot start this Thursday and makes for a sensible, low investment type target for this week’s first-round leader market.
