The John Deere Classic is a staple of the summer golf swing. It used to act as the final warmup event for the Open Championship until the PGA Tour realized it was much easier just to buy the European Tour and host an event in Scotland the week prior. Now the Deere has its own weekend, and this year’s field has drawn some bigger names as a result. Cameron Young leads the field this week, and if he were playing well, would likely be the uber chalk across the industry in PGA DFS. Instead, with Young struggling of late, we’re more likely to see spread ownership across a bunch of different players at the top, some of whom are at their highest price ever on DraftKings. Let’s discuss the best PGA DFS fades and pivots, including Cameron Young.
With all the craziness and several untested names leading the field, this is an important week to stay vigilant of who is popping with heavy ownership and who might be falling under the radar.
Below, we will go through a few of the best fade and pivot spots for PGA DFS lineup building, with a focus on large-field GPPs with top-heavy prizes. As always, we will use Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and PGA DFS ownership projections.
PGA DFS Fades & Pivots | John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run Stats and Info
- Par 71, 7,268 yards; features bentgrass greens and seven par 4’s that measure under 450 yards.
- Par 4’s will mostly demand shorter approaches, with 125-to-150 yards in proximity being the key distance that many players will zone in on.
- The last three winners here have gained 7.5 strokes or more from putting, and 2019 winner Dylan Frittelli even lost strokes on his approaches.
- The last six winners also all gained over one stroke off the tee. A consistent tee ball (e.g. players who can hit it straight off the tee, over and over) will give themselves more birdie chances as the rounds go by.
2023 John Deere Classic PGA DFS Fades and Pivots
High-Range PGA DFS Fade: Cameron Young
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 21.3%Â
Cameron Young rode some hot putting and an improved short game to some lofty heights in 2022 but has regressed in both of those areas in 2023. Ultimately, his main strength is still off the tee, which is important at Deere Run but primarily from an accuracy standpoint. Young will also be handicapped this week due to the fact he’s seeing this course for the first time, and these speedy bentgrass greens sometimes create a learning curve for newcomers. Young still projects as a top-three owned player this week but has started to regress a little in the Stokastic scoring projections. Given the lack of ownership discount we’re getting to take on a struggling talent, he is a solid fade candidate on the DFS side of things for this week.
High-Range Pivot: Adam Hadwin
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 16.3%
The Canadian came extremely close to shipping his second title on the PGA Tour in Detroit, but he now comes to another low-scoring event where his elite approach game and red-hot putter can get right back to work. Hadwin’s only career win came at the tougher Copperhead venue, but he’s typically been at his best when the scoring is low and the setup more forgiving. A 59 at the American Express event in 2017, which is played on a series of resort-style courses, showcases his true upside in these types of events perfectly, and to go along with his success in the desert, he has also found himself in contention at a lot of the easier venues on the fall swing over the years. With his game currently busting out in all the important areas, it’s a little surprising that he’s not receiving more hype more this week. His Stokastic projections have him sitting just under Young in pretty much every category, so given the solid ownership gap, he makes for a great pivot off the more popular American.
Mid-Range PGA DFS Fade: Peter Kuest
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 14.6%Â
Peter Kuest was a great story to follow in Detroit. As a Monday qualifier to the event, he nearly pulled off the impossible and grabbed a win in what was only his ninth-career PGA start. Kuest is undoubtedly rocking some confidence after last week, but he has also grabbed the attention of the PGA DFS crowd now as well. He is projected for far higher ownership on DraftKings this week (over 14%), but we have a very small sample size in terms to calculate his actual scoring projections. Truth be told, we haven’t really seen enough of Kuest at this level to make a decision as to whether he’s a great value (at his now increased price) or simply being overhyped at his 14% ownership projection. Ultimately, there are plenty of veteran names popping up on Stokastic with better projections who are also likely to be far less popular in bigger field tournaments. Kuest is certainly a player to watch but makes for a good fade target based on his likely popularity this week.
Mid-Range Pivot: Chez Reavie
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 8.5%Â
Chez Reavie is another veteran name who is getting undervalued this week. Two starts ago, he was in the final pairing on Sunday (in an elevated event no less), and last week in Detroit, he gained more than eight strokes via approach alone. Despite this great run (which has also featured some elite putting at times), he isn’t getting much love at the very affordable price of $7,700, which makes him look like a great play for all kinds of DFS formats. The Stokastic projections agree — they have Reavie ranked as one of the stronger value plays in the $7,000 range and have been moving him up the rankings on a weekly basis since June. The 41-year-old is also a great fit stylistically for Deere Run, as he is a fantastic short to mid-iron player and now ranks ninth in overall proximity over the last 24 rounds in this field. With him projecting for nearly half the ownership of the newcomer Kuest, he makes for a great pivot off the more popular youngster.
Low-End PGA DFS Fade: Lucas Glover
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 13.4%
On the flip side to Reavie, a veteran who isn’t getting much love, is Lucas Glover, a former winner of this event who seems to be getting a lot of heat after a couple of decent outings this summer. Glover does make sense this week, as he is cheap, and his mid-to-short iron game can really fire up fast on these shorter courses when he’s in form. The issue with the 2021 winner has never been ball-striking, however, it has been his work on the greens. Glover is projected to be the chalk in this range, and while his course history is strong, he doesn’t really stand out much in the Stokastic projections. Given the volatile nature of this event and the need for players to really stand out on the greens this week, looking for a lower-owned pivot with more putting upside to mix in over Glover is certainly a common-sense route to take when approaching the lower $7,000 range on DraftKings.
Low-End Pivot: Sam Ryder
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 5.5%
If we want a nice wild card to target in the lower $7,000 range, why not get exposure to Sam Ryder? The American was all over leaderboards early in the season. He took the lead into Sunday at the much tougher Torrey Pines back in January, and he also flashed with a third-place result at the Valero the week prior to the Masters. Ryder is also a supremely talented putter who can spike on the greens nearly any week when he gets going, and in this range, he feels like he’s got a much better shot than most to potentially land you a top-five finish at the end of the week. He finished 40th last week, which doesn’t jump off the page, but he has also gained more than two strokes from putting in back-to-back starts and showed improvement on his approach in Detroit. Ryder also has a sneaky strong projection on Stokastic, and at under 6% projected ownership, he makes for the perfect kind of boom-or-bust player to target in GPP builds.
