For the season’s third major, the PGA Tour heads to the North Course of the Los Angeles Country Club (par 70, 7,421 yards, Bentgrass greens) for the U.S. Open, marking the venue’s first appearance at the major level. The U.S. Open’s field consists of 156 players, and it is important to note that the only the top 60 and ties will be advancing through the cut. Let’s look at Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage PGA DFS picks for the U.S. Open.
Leverage scores compare a golfer’s ownership to their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament. It is one of many metrics in Stokastic’s tools that use the fantasy point and ownership projections to find the top PGA DFS plays each week.
PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: U.S. Open
With tiny greens, thick Bermuda rough and plenty of elevation changes, the North Course of the Los Angeles Country Club is expected to live up to the U.S. Open standard and be a challenging test of golf. Not only do golfers need to be long, but they also need to be accurate off the tee, as the rough is expected to be extremely penalizing. That makes elite drivers the priority at the Los Angeles Country Club. Also, strong par-5 players will be a focus, as the three par 5’s present the best scoring opportunities here and capitalizing on these holes will be essential to climbing the leaderboard.
Brooks Koepka
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 1st, FanDuel: 2nd
Koepka is an incredible GPP target, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is projecting him for single-digit ownership. He just won the PGA Championship by two shots at Oak Hill Country Club last month, marking Koepka’s fifth major title. That week he dominated in every major category and gained a mind-numbing 14.7 strokes from tee to green, which is the most Koepka has produced in over four years. Following this impressive victory, he went on to finish 12th at the LIV Golf Invitational DC the next week and now ranks third in total points on the LIV tour this season.
It is safe to say Koepka is in convincing form, and the Los Angeles Country Club is a course that fits his game perfectly. Of Koepka’s nine career wins at majors or on the PGA Tour, five have come on par 70s. Furthermore, Koepka ranks first in the field by a mile in total career strokes gained on par 70s over 7,400 yards, doubling the amount of Dustin Johnson, who ranks second.
Sam Burns
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 3rd, FanDuel: 6th
Burns is an awesome sleeper pick, with Stokastic projecting him for less than 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Burns’ lack of popularity is due to him missing the cut at RBC Canadian Open last week, and while this was obviously a letdown, there is plenty of reason to expect a bounce-back performance from him at the U.S. Open. First off, Burns only missed the cut in Canada by one stroke, and he still gained strokes with both irons and putter despite missing the weekend. Plus, Burns was playing excellent golf before this, finishing sixth at the Charles Schwab Challenge and 16th at the Memorial in his previous two starts. He is also a strong player on bentgrass greens, ranking 10th in the field in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds on that type of putting surface.
Burns has made seven of 11 cuts at major championships for his career – including four top-30 finishes – and should effortlessly outperform his depressed price tags.
Patrick Rodgers
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 33rd, FanDuel: 55th
Rodgers has quietly been playing terrific golf, making six of his past seven cuts and finishing top 30 five times. This run of golf has vaulted him up 55 spots in the world golf rankings to a career-best No. 91. On top of the career-best form, Rodgers has all the tools to succeed at the Los Angeles Country Club, ranking third in par-5 performance and top 40 in both strokes gained off the tee and driving distance this season.
Rodgers has never missed a cut at the U.S. Open in four tries and should add a quality finish to his major resume this weekend. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic is projecting Rodgers to be less than 3% owned.
Min Woo Lee
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 45th, FanDuel: 65th
After a rough patch of missing three cuts in a row in the spring, Lee has gotten back on track and advanced to the weekend in two straight starts, while gaining strokes off the tee and with his putter at both events. Most notably, Lee finished 18th at Oak Hill Country Club for the PGA Championship during this streak, which, like the Los Angeles Country Club, is a par 70 with bentgrass greens.
Including this performance, Lee’s major resume now includes four top-30 finishes in only seven starts. Another top-30 is absolutely possible for Lee, and he is one of the best cheap GPP plays available for the U.S. Open, with Stokastic slating him to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
