US Open DFS Preview: DeChambeau can strike in Los Angeles

The third major of the season is already upon us. It was just four weeks ago that we were heading into Oak Hill for the PGA Championship and that venue proved to be way too much for the majority of the pros as only a handful managed to finish under par for the week. The USGA (the governing body of golf in the USA) has already been tweeting out nasty pictures of the rough at Los Angeles Country Club so you can be sure they saw what was on tap at Oak Hill and are ready to challenge the players again.

As mentioned the US Open for 2023 moves over to the west coast where the players will get to ply their trade at the swanky Los Angeles Country Club (LA CC). This will be the first time that the PGA Tour visits LA CC and the first time it has hosted a PGA event since 1940. The venue looks outstanding by all accounts and has a nice blend of a traditional country club feel with a lot of rustic design and some bigger-than-expected elevation.

The weather this week should be fantastic given the location, and some fast, fiery greens will almost certainly be a staple come Sunday. With a ton of big money at stake for DFS, there has never been a better time to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, to get an edge.

But before you do make sure you keep reading as the full preview for the 2023 US Open DFS picks is below.

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2023 US Open DFS Preview & Picks

Since the PGA Championship the following players have won events:

Emiliano Grillo – Colonial
Viktor Hovland – Memorial
Nick Taylor – Canadian Open

Since 2019 the US Open has been played approximately one month after the PGA Championship and since that time no player who has won an event in between these majors has gone on to win the US Open. That’s not to say any of these men can’t compete or even win, it’s just something to think about as we roll on into the preview.

The field this week will be loaded with both Liv and PGA players as the two Tours are still dealing with the fallout of the recent merger between the two companies. Coming in hot this week will be Brooks Koepka, who dusted off all challengers at the PGA Championship and has won this event twice in the past. Scottie Scheffler has been an absolute beast of late himself and has gained an almost unfathomable 15 or more strokes tee to green in each of his last three starts.

Those two men will be two of the biggest favorites in the field but there are certainly others who can rise up this week to give them a good challenge. Last week in Canada we saw a threesome of English players all post top-five finishes with Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, and Tyrrell Hatton all having fantastic leadup-weeks to this event. Rose may not be able to compete on this kind of setup anymore but both Hatton and Fleetwood still have the youth required for longer venues and have been in the mix at this major on numerous occasions.

With the venue this season new to everyone, the angles will abound in the previews and articles. The easiest comparable for this week’s venue is undoubtedly Riviera Country Club, which sits nearby and is a similarly long, less-than-par 72 venue, set among some beautiful Los Angeles vegetation. However, it’s important to remember that this is the US Open and that means that rough, green speeds and flags will be dictated by a different organization than at regular PGA setups. Distance will be paramount as it is at every US Open but the ability to hold greens with irons out of the rough and control your speed on the lightning-fast putting surfaces will also be paramount.

US Open DFS Picks: Betting Trends

The last four US Open winners (since 2019) all finished 8th or better at the PGA Championship – held a month prior – and all gained 7.0 strokes or more, tee to green, for the week.
11 of the last 13 US Open winners have posted four or more top 10 finishes on the PGA TOUR in the season of their win.

Below are some of the top players in the field to watch given their recent form and course history:

Scottie Scheffler: Scheffler has been nearly indestructible in the long game late. He’s gained over 15.0 strokes total tee to green in each of his last four starts and yet doesn’t have a win to show for it thanks to losing 13.1 strokes putting over that span. If he can finally get a read on the fast greens in play, he seems like he might be impossible to beat.
Brooks Koepka: Just because we haven’t seen Brooks Koepka since the PGA Championship, that doesn’t mean you should discount him. Jon Rahm played just once between the PGA and US Open in 2021 and won this event and Koepka is following the same path.
Viktor Hovland: Hovland broke through for the biggest win of his career at the Memorial two weeks ago and is now viewed rightfully so as one of the favorites. He’s clicking but has yet to post a top 10 in four US Open appearances.
Tyrrell Hatton: The Englishman is playing some superb golf right now. He’s gained over a stroke off the tee in each of his past six starts and posted two separate rounds of 64 last week.
Adam Scott: If we get a veteran winner, Adam Scott could be the name that follows Fitzpatrick’s on the trophy. He’s hitting the ball better off the tee than he has in years (perhaps ever) and has posted three top-10 finishes in his four PGA starts.

Field Notes: Amateur Gordon Sargeant will again be in the field for this major. If that name makes you ill it’s because he got plenty of airtime at the first major and promptly self-destructed. Sargeant is long off the tee but the US Open is likely too much for him to handle at this point in his career… The top amateur from the Masters Sam Bennett is also in the field, but he’s no longer an amateur. Bennett has played steady golf off the tee and made the cut each of the past two weeks… Min Woo Lee is also back in our hearts this week and coming off a solid 18th at the PGA Championship. He was also 27th at Brookline last season and will be playing his second US Open.

US Open Past Winners and Winners Stats

2022: Matthew Fitzpatrick

Lead-in: 10/MC/5 (5th at PGA Championship, 10th at Canadian Open in last start)
Stats for the week of win: SG: TTG 16.4

2021: Jon Rahm

Lead-in: 8/34/MC (played and led Memorial after 3 rounds, but had to WD – Covid)
Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.8/SG:APP 6.5/SG:ATG 1.9/SG:PUTT 3.8/SG:TTG 11.3

2020: Bryson DeChambeau

Lead-in: MC/50/22 (4th at PGA Championship month prior)
Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 5.3/SG:APP 7.5/SG:ATG 5.0/SG:PUTT 4.5/SG:TTG 17.9

Strong off-the-tee play has been a big hallmark of this event, especially over the past five years or so, but realistically every aspect of the player’s game is tested this week. Both Rahm and DeChambeau excelled on approach and around the greens with DeChambeau also gaining over 5.0 strokes around the green for the week. As for lead-ins, all three of the past three winners placed well at the PGA Championship the month prior but while Rahm hardly played between the majors, Fitzpatrick and DeCambeau actually got in multiple starts, with Fitzpatrick landing a top-10 finish at the Canadian Open the week prior.

Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

2023 US Open Course Preview

Los Angeles Country Club: 7421, par 70

Greens: Bentgrass (creeping bentgrass to be exact)

Designer: George C. Thomas (1927)
Restoration Architects (year): Gil Hanse, Jim Wagner and
Geoff Shackelford (2010)

Similar Courses: Riviera

Los Angeles Country Club will play as a longer par 70 this week, a setup that the USGA tends to prefer. This sets it in line with several other recent major venues on the west coast including Pebble Beach and TPC Harding Park. The LA CC certainly has a Riviera vibe to it when you look at the layout but its setup also has a lot of distinct differences. The fairways at LA CC are, by all accounts, massive and the way the course sits in the natural surroundings means there is likely to be only one cut of rough in play. That also means small misses off the tee may not be all that big deal as there is also no water on the course for hazards. However, the rough used at LA CC is going to be overgrown Bermuda which means that if you do find the thick grass, getting out may be harder than usual.

The fairways and tee boxes have a lot of elevation changes to them which will likely cause the tee shots of players to roll out of the fairway often. In that sense, the venue may play a little like Pinehurst #2 which hosted the 2014 US Open and had firm conditions, along with more natural penalty areas and less overall rough.

One thing the LA CC does have is barrancas, a word I just learned last week. Barrancus are essentially small gulleys, ditches, ravines, or embankments that are often filled with vegetation, brush, or some other kind of impediment. Barrancus on the course range from small to extra large and they guard several of the greens and fairways at LA CA. Hitting it in a Barranca could mean anything from a big nothing burger to a lost ball and multiple penalty strokes. Either way, these will act as natural barriers to players trying to run their ball up on several holes and likely make the course play a little longer than it already is.

The venue has five par 3’s and two of them will be set at mammoth distances for the pros. Both holes 7 and 11 look like they will play around 280-290 yards in length most days making these likely to be some of the most difficult holes to navigate for the players. Despite being a par 70 there are also three par fives on the venue, including the straightforward par 5 first hole, which will likely play as one of the easier holes for the tournament. The par 4s at LA CC run the gamut in terms of length but there are six that will play at over 450 yards. The last three (16, 17, 18) may all play 500 yards and longer.

With firm and fast conditions likely, thanks to sunny skies, it’s likely we see this course really gain in toughness as the week wears on. Players who can get out fast will have an advantage but a precise and creative short game, coupled with the necessary amount of power to handle the longer par 3s and 4s, will certainly be needed by those wanting to stay under par by week’s end.

Key Stats: Proximity >200 yards / Strokes Gained Off the Tee / Bogey Avoidance

2023 US Open Recent Form Watch

Top Strokes Gained Tee to Green (last 50 rounds)

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Tony Finau
Mito Pereira
Patrick Cantlay

Top Strokes Gained Around the Green (Last 50 Rounds)

Scottie Scheffler
Tommy Fleetwood
Matt Kuchar
Chris Kirk
Justin Thomas

Bogey Avoidance (Last 50 rounds)

Scottie Scheffler
Jason Day
Xander Schauffele
Hideki Matsuyama
Wyndham Clark

2023 US Open Weather Update

Thursday morning: 60-62 F, winds 4-5 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation

Thursday afternoon: 68-72 F, winds 7-9 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation

Friday morning: 62-64 F, winds 3-5 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation

Friday afternoon: 70-72 F, winds 8-10 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation

As you would expect, the weather this week is going to be nice. The venue is situated in Beverly Hills (and it’s June) so expect sunshine all four days. The temperatures won’t be overly warm, however, with highs only topping out around 70 F. Mornings may actually be a little cool and could make the course play longer than expected and perhaps a tad softer in the a.m. as well. Wind doesn’t look like it will make much of an appearance as none of the four days have gusts breaching 10 mph at the moment.

2023 US Open DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets

Bryson DeChambeau | BetMGM 40-1 Outright

This is an event that caters to a very select few golfers and, regardless of your thoughts of him as a player or person, one of those one of those golfers this week is Bryson DeChambeau. Much like Rahm in 2021, DeChambeau comes into this year’s US Open off a top 10 finish at the first major of the season, an event where he grabbed the first-round lead after day one and ended the event in fourth place — ranking sixth in strokes gained tee to green stats, and first in strokes gained off the tee stats. While he’s no longer the bulking behemoth he was when on the PGA full-time DeChambeau proved at Oak Hill that his off-the-tee game is still a weapon, and one that will allow him a chance to win whenever the setup is long and punishing like it was that week.

DeChambeau’s only win in the Western USA came at the Shriners in 2018 but he finished 15th and 5th at Riviera in 2019 and 2020 and also posted a strong 4th at the PGA Championship in 2020 — when it was held at TPC Harding Park. Whether or not LA CC will set him up for similar success remains to be seen but given the USGA’s history — and DeChambeau’s own history at this event (he did win it by six strokes in 2020) — he’s someone who looks thoroughly underpriced at 40-1 given both his recent form and the longer setup that is in play this week.

Mito Pereira | BetMGM 80-1 Outright

Pereira is available at 80-1 on BetMGM in the outright market and certainly has the makings of a longshot who could challenge this week. While he has never won on the PGA TOUR before he is a three-time Korn Ferry winner and came to the final hole of the PGA Championship in 2022 with a one-shot lead (and ultimately finished 3rd). The Chilean has played some extremely high-level golf of late as he posted another top 20 at the PGA Championship in May, an event where he gained 9.6 strokes ball-striking. That put him in the top 10 in terms of strokes gained ball-striking numbers for the week and he ranked seventh there in strokes gained tee to green stats.

Regardless of how the course plays, you can be sure that a similar level of consistency in the long game will be needed at LA CC and in that regard, it was good to see Pereira produce more stellar play in his last start on LIV two weeks ago, when he finished third in Washington, DC. Pereira has had some success in this part of the world before, finishing third at the Fortinet Championship in 2020 (an event he likely should have won) and was 15th at the Genesis last year which is held at nearby Riviera. For betting, he’s an easy and low-cost longshot to add as an outright and also a player to target when the top 10/20 odds get released as well.