The U.S. Open always provides tons of huge PGA DFS contests. DraftKings has multiple Milly Maker contests up in their lobby, with their main $3 million guaranteed, $25.00 contest having over 142,000 entrants. For lineup-building purposes, ownership will be key to building high-upside lineups for a shot at the top prizes. Despite really soft pricing, it would be wise to take some chances and look for some PGA DFS fades and pivots to take advantage of and perhaps get some leverage into builds.
The course itself (the Los Angeles Country Club) could also potentially cause a lot of chaos, as it is a non-traditional setup, with wider-than-normal fairways that only one cut of rough. Add in some extra-long and extra-short par 3’s and 4’s, and the U.S. Open may have some wild swings in scoring.
PGA DFS Fades & Pivots | U.S. Open
Below we will go through a few of the best fade and pivot spots for PGA DFS lineup building, with a main focus on big-field GPPs with top-heavy prizes. As always, we will use Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and PGA DFS ownership projections.
The Los Angeles Country Club Stats and Info
- Par 70, 7,421 yards. Bentgrass greens and a layout that has quite a bit of elevation and some “natural” penalty areas (no water on course).
- Venue has very wide fairways in areas but also lots of rollout spots where offline shots will end up off the fairway and potentially in naturally made “barrancas” or thick Bermuda rough.
- Two par 3’s measure over 280 yards, and the final three par 4’s may all be over 500 yards. Lots of long iron approaches will be needed, as will a little creativity around the greens.
- Stats to focus in on: Strokes gained tee to green, three-putt avoidance, bogey avoidance, proximity from beyond 200 yards.
2023 U.S. Open PGA DFS Fades and Pivots
High-Range PGA DFS Fade: Cameron Young
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 14.6% | FanDuel: 6.4%
Cameron Young finally made a cut last week but continued to struggle. He shot four rounds of 70 or worse at the short and relatively simple Oakdale Country Club, a venue that produced multiple rounds of 8 under or better for the week. Young continues to dominate off the tee, but his putter remains a huge issue and he again lost multiple strokes with that club. The greens at the Los Angeles Country Club will be somewhat non-traditional and likely play extremely fast. Three-putt avoidance is somewhat of a key stat for a U.S. Open setting, and Young is not a player to rely on to excel in that area. Even if that club flips, there is not much reward for those willing to take a shot with him in player pools. Young is projecting for close to 15% ownership at his $8,000 price on DraftKings, as it seems the U.S. Open narrative — aka the need to focus on big hitters — will help keep him popular. He is a solid fade with so much talent available at this price.
High-Range Pivot: Dustin Johnson
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 16.3% | FanDuel: 6.97%
Dustin Johnson is a player who genuinely loves West Coast golf. He nearly won his first U.S. Open at Chambers Bay (Seattle) in 2015 and has grabbed regular-season wins at Riviera and Pebble Beach. The first major of the season saw him start out fast and fade a little to a 55th-place finish, but Johnson still possesses a lot of elite upside and only a few starts ago beat out Cameron Smith in a playoff to take home another LIV title. Johnson could be in the top 5 come Sunday, whereas it feels hard to say that about Young. Johnson is tracking for slightly more ownership than Young but is also just $300 more to roster. Johnson also ranks well in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, with a better win probability and value score than Young, making him the preferred option in this range.
Mid-Range PGA DFS Fade: Rickie Fowler
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 28.9% | FanDuel:19.8%
As good as Rickie Fowler looks, he is coming in blazing hot in the PGA DFS ownership projections and makes for a potentially ripe fade candidate. Fowler has reeled off a couple of top-10 finishes since the PGA Championship, and the narrative will not dial back his popularity given that the course may play somewhat non-traditionally like Pinehurst No. 2, where Fowler finished second in 2014. That is all fine and dandy, but Fowler is still searching for his first win since 2017 and is grouped with numerous players for DFS purposes who have matched or outperformed him on the tour this season. Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections give him one of the best top-6 probabilities in this range, but it is only a percent or 2 above the players just underneath him — who have the same salary and far less ownership. It is not necessary to fully fade Fowler in lineup builds or betting, but taking a measured approach is warranted. He will be a popular combo target to use with Scottie Scheffler, and lineups that start with those two names will make up a large portion of lineups in large- and small-field tournaments.
Low-Range Pivot: Patrick Reed
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 13.1% | FanDuel: 9.4%
If looking for a pure ownership pivot in this range, then everyone’s favorite Master winner, Patrick Reed, looks like a solid target. He is projecting for less than half the ownership of Fowler 48 hours before the event and is coming off a solid stretch of golf that saw him finish top 20 in each of the year’s first two majors. Reed is no stranger to this event, and his results speak for themselves at this point. He has made the cut in six straight U.S. Opens (no easy task) and has finished top 20 five times during his career. His 14th place at the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay is also interesting given its locale on the West Coast and the fact it had wider-than-normal fairways for a U.S. Open setting, which correlates nicely with the Los Angeles Country Club. For leverage plays, it is hard to think of a better name in this range given Reed’s ability to elevate in big events and to get red hot with the putter whenever it suits him. He is a solid pivot option off the mid-$7,000 chalk on DraftKings.
High-End PGA DFS Fade: Denny McCarthy
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 13.3% | FanDuel: 14.9%
McCarthy had a great Memorial, sinking a number of huge putts in the final round to nearly pull off the win. He is going to have a few more eyes on him as a result and at $7,200 may even be one of the most popular plays in this range. That is the main issue with him, as he is currently trending for PGA DFS ownership projections on DraftKings that are slowly climbing and seem likely to approach 15% in larger fields. That is not drastic or overly terrible, but at the same time, McCarthy is grouped in a range with players who have a lot more pedigree and PGA accomplishments. McCarthy’s putter can always save him on a longer course, and it did at Brookline last year, where he finished seventh. However, relying on a solely putter-based player has its issues, especially when that player is going to be one of the chalkiest in his range. The ownership numbers are getting a little hot, and since several players have similar or even better upside (many of whom could be far lower owned), McCarthy unfortunately gets a date in the fade bin as well.
High-End Pivot: Russell Henley
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 9.2% | FanDuel: 2.2%
Henley seems to be flying nicely under the radar. He does not do a ton of press conferences or have a social media presence, so do not expect him to suddenly get a surge of popularity either. That is all good news because, by all accounts, Henley could be peaking at just the right time for this week’s test. Since the PGA Championship, he has two top-20 finishes and has shown great progression with his iron play, gaining 6.4 strokes on approach alone at Muirfield. The putter has also come to life for him, as he has gained over a stroke on the greens in two straight starts. Henley has had some solid success at nearby Riviera in the past and even went off in the final two groups at the Genesis on Sunday before fading to a 17th back in 2020. He grabbed a top-5 at the year’s first major and was in the second to last pairing on Sunday at the 2021 U.S. Open. Henley is projecting for similar PGA DFS projections as McCarthy but should come in quite a bit lower owned, making him a preferred pivot for this range.
