If we use Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections as a guide, we can get a general feel for which NFL DFS running backs we should be targeting and avoiding each week on the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates. Let’s see how the daily fantasy football player projections and top NFL DFS running back picks and fades for Week 6 are shaking out for now.
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 6
Ahead of NFL DFS Week 6 on DraftKings and FanDuel, let’s take a look through Stokastic’s NFL DFS running back projections data for this week’s matchups in hopes of finding the highest-upside targets relative to their salaries.
We’ll be sure to add an update later in the week showing how the data has changed.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 6 Running Backs – Sunday Update
11:00 AM ET: NFL DFS player projections at Stokastic have been updated.
The top five RB boom probabilities on DraftKings belong to Raheem Mostert, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Kyren Williams and Joe Mixon. On FanDuel it’s Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Travis Etienne Jr., Joe Mixon and Bijan Robinson in first through fifth.
Make sure to go through the full data set to see what other running back values stand out.
More Stokastic Week 6 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
NFL Contest Sims
NFL Homepage
NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
Stokastic YouTube
Stokastic Discord
NFL DFS Picks | Week 6 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Back Projections
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Per Stokastic’s NFL player projections, Josh Jacobs owns the highest Week 6 boom probability at the running back position as the Raiders get set to square off with the Patriots on Sunday afternoon. At $7,000 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel, the Las Vegas back is also expected to be a highly popular pick for NFL DFS lineups — ownership projections have his early projected ownership at both 23.0% on DK and FD, though those numbers are sure to fluctuate throughout the week as more news comes in.
While the efficiency has not been as strong so far this season, Jacobs has strung together solid back-to-back NFL DFS performances. Last week he had 20 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown as well as five catches on five targets for 20 yards while logging another healthy 84% snap share. Considering his palatable price, lead back role, and involvement in the run and pass game, it’s sensible to see Jacobs ranking highly in projections (and ownership) against New England.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon is another NFL DFS running back option to consider for Week 6’s home date with the Seahawks. If we look at boom probability percentages for the week, the 27-year-old running back is neck and neck with Jacobs at the top of the pile at his salaries of $6,300 on DK and $7,000 on FanDuel.
Mixon’s role is as secure as it comes — he’s logged at least 75% of the snaps in each of the last four weeks — and he’s being utilized in the passing game too, having seen at least four targets in three of the team’s five games so far. The matchup against Seattle is not an imposing one and the Bengals enter as three-point favorites on the NFL odds board, with an implied team total of 24 points. Like Jacobs, Mixon is likely to carry high ownership for Week 6 NFL DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel.
It’d be tough to write an entire running back article without once bringing up Christian McCaffrey. He’s obviously had an unreal start to the season and is essentially always worth consideration for NFL DFS tournaments, but he’s not popping quite as much in point-per-dollar projections for this tougher matchup on the road against the Browns. McCaffrey’s boom probability is right around 3.5% on both sites at his salaries of $9,500 on DraftKings and $10,300 on FanDuel, with the 49ers implied for 22.25 points as a team in Week 6.
Elsewhere, Raheem Mostert figures to benefit from increased involvement with fellow running back De’Von Achane out injured. Mostert is $6,400 on DK and has a boom probability of 11.6% for Sunday’s encounter. On the other side of that game, Carolina’s Chuba Hubbard is expected to receive a bulk of the carries now that Miles Sanders has been ruled out. Hubbard is $4,300 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel.
The Rams’ Kyren Williams ($6,500 on DK / $8,200 on FD) is another running back to consider and is grading out well for NFL DFS in Week 6 after a down game last week in this home matchup with the Cardinals.
NFL DFS Fades | Week 6 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Back Projections
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Given the circus going on in Indianapolis, it’s not surprising Stokastic’s early NFL DFS player projections are not in love with Jonathan Taylor for Week 6 against the Jaguars. He finds himself near the bottom of the RB pool in terms of point-per-dollar projections after attempting only six rushes for 18 yards in Week 5’s 23-16 win over the Titans. Teammate Zack Moss was the workhorse, totaling 23 carries for 165 yards and two touchdowns and an additional 30 receiving yards on two receptions.
Taylor is down at $6,600 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel, and he is expected to see some type of increase in touches this weekend, but his current boom probabilities are extremely low on both sites for Week 6. As long as Moss and his sizable role in the offense are still in the picture, Taylor’s general appeal takes a hit, even at his lower-than-usual salaries. We know the talent is there, and ownership will be next to nothing, but will there be enough opportunity for NFL DFS purposes?
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
UPDATE: Gibbs has now been ruled OUT for Week 6.
Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) listed out for Week 6.
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) October 13, 2023
A hamstring injury kept Jahmyr Gibbs out of action in Week 5, with David Montgomery proceeding to shred the Panthers defense en route to an easy win for the Lions. They’ll now head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers as small road favorites. Gibbs’ status is up in the air for Week 6 right now and more likely won’t be known until after practice on Friday.
Even if active, it will be hard to get excited about Gibbs because of how much Montgomery has dominated backfield work. Lions coach Dan Campbell has made it clear he will continue to operate as the primary back and be “the guy” if the team needs 25-30 carries, with Gibbs getting involved in other ways and serving as a true complementary piece. For this Sunday, the talented rookie is currently at a bust probability of 73.5% (0.2% boom) at $5,900 on DraftKings while sporting a 53.8% bust probability at $5,800 (0.4% boom) on FanDuel.
There is sure to be more player news and updates that come out over the next few days, which could shake up the slate in terms of the best NFL DFS running back picks and values. We will add a Sunday morning update to the top of this page with a new look at the projections data.
We should also remember that accurate player projections are just one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
More Stokastic Week 6 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
NFL Contest Sims
NFL Homepage
NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
Stokastic YouTube
Stokastic Discord
