Week 17 Monday Night Football brings a matchup with playoff hopes on the line as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Buffalo Bills. Wrapping up the holiday with NFL Week 17 Monday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites, featuring these Bills-Bengals DFS picks.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 17 Monday Night Football slate featuring the Buffalo Bills at the Cincinnati Bengals.
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NFL DFS Picks: Week 17 MNF | Bills-Bengals
Buffalo Bill: 25.25 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic Projections bestowed the QB1 ranking to Josh Allen this week, and after a pair of forgettable Week 17 primetime games, it looks like we should have a spirited matchup tonight. Buffalo has clinched the AFC East; however, Cincinnati is only one game behind as these squads jockey for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. The Bengals have had their moments on defense this season, and currently they have the No. 14 running and passing DVOAs according to Football Outsiders.
It is clear that Allen is not fully healthy with his elbow issue, and he has just two 300-yard passing efforts in his last nine games. Of course, five of these games included multiple aerial scores, and he also added five more rushing touchdowns, so the fantasy production has held firm, even as the volume has softened. The top three passing yard performances against the Bengals this season have been Tom Brady (312 yards, 3 touchdowns), Ryan Tannehill (291, 0) and Joe Flacco (285, 0). Allen will have his work cut out for him tonight.
Running Back
Devin Singletary and rookie James Cook are getting closer and closer to an even timeshare situation. Over the last four games, Singletary has the edge in snaps with about nine more offensive plays per game on average. Singletary has the slight edge in carries but only one more target during this stretch, with each player scoring twice. On DraftKings, the $1,400 discount for Cook is quite appealing, though on FanDuel it is just a $500 savings.
Nyheim Hines has seen the field for only three plays each of the last two weeks and either needs to get lucky with a 20-yard screen pass or have something befall one of the other running backs during the game. Reggie Gilliam has been on the field for 22 total snaps over the last two games in his hybrid fullback/tight end role. He has 10 targets on the season but only one since the Week 7 bye, which he caught last weekend for a dozen yards.
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Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs has seen an abundance of opportunities this year, and his 144 targets are one fewer than Gabe Davis (83) and Isaiah McKenzie (62) combined. Diggs is averaging 88.3 yards per game, which is the fourth most in the league, and he has 10 touchdowns. Davis will be on the field for 90% of the snaps, but he has seen a dip in production and volume, likely due to a combination of Allen’s elbow and, of course, the winter weather when Buffalo is at home. McKenzie and rookie Khalil Shakir have been splitting the third wideout role, and veteran Cole Beasley has been on the field for six and 11 snaps in his two games playing for the Bills. The veteran has one target in each appearance.
Tight End
Dawson Knox should be on the field for around 80% of the plays tonight, and he has 20 targets over the last three games, with 63 of the 75 that have gone to this position. Quinten Morris will serve as the backup, though he has just 11 targets on the season, with only two since Week 5 when Knox was out with an injury.
Defense/Special Teams
Cincinnati has cut down on sacks allowed, ceding only seven in the last five games. The Bengals do a phenomenal job taking care of the ball, with only 17 turnovers in their 15 games. Buffalo ranks fourth with 24 takeaways while averaging 2.6 sacks per tilt.
Cincinnati Bengals: 24.25 Points
Quarterback
Joe Burrow has been outstanding this season, and his 284.0 passing yards per game are behind only Patrick Mahomes (315.5) and Tom Brady (288.1). He also is second with 34 touchdowns, and though he is not considered a running quarterback, he does have five scores on the ground. Buffalo boasts the third-best rushing DVOA and the seventh-best passing DVOA, so this matchup should test the mettle of Burrow. Fortunately, he has several dynamic pass catchers, which should help aid his cause.
Running Back
In the three appearances since Joe Mixon missed a pair of games, the veteran workhorse has averaged just under 60% of the snap share, with backup Samaje Perine doubling his early-season workload. Mixon still has the lead over the last three games, with 41 carries and 17 targets compared to the 15 and 10 for Perine, but this is as close as that gap has ever been.
Mixon is still the preferred option, though we are banking on a touchdown to keep him on pace with all the talented receivers on both sides of this affair. Perine rates out better on DraftKings in the full-PPR scoring format, but he is a viable differentiation option on FanDuel in the large-field tournaments, where he projects to be on just 10% to 12% of the rosters.
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Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase is only 40 yards shy of 1,000 despite playing in just 11 games this season. He can score from anywhere on the field, and a multi-touchdown performance is always in play. Tee Higgins has been the perfect wingman for Chase, and he is talented enough to make the defense pay if too much attention is on Chase.
Tyler Boyd has been dealing with a finger injury, and he also has seen his snap share decrease with the ascendance of Trenton Irwin. While there is not quite a changing of the guard just yet, Irwin has turned some heads with his four touchdowns. Keep in mind that Irwin is an undrafted 27-year-old out of Stanford and eight of his 11 career games over the last three seasons have been this year. Stick with Boyd on DraftKings, where he is just $600 more than Irwin, though on FanDuel there is a significant discrepancy in the popularity of this duo, with Boyd (15%) far outpacing Irwin (2%). That is food for thought when building 50 or more lineups.
Tight End
Hayden Hurst (calf) has missed the last three games, but he is expected to be suited up tonight and is not on the injury report. He should dampen the workload of Irwin, and his return also renders fellow tight end Mitchell Wilcox down to tertiary status. Keep tabs on any news of potential limitations since Wilcox did see 11 targets while Hurst was out, but there is not enough work to support both players tonight. Choose wisely.
Defense/Special Teams
While Allen does have five multi-interception games, he has suffered only three interceptions in his last half dozen outings. He will definitely give up a couple of sacks, but it is hard to be excited about the “bend but don’t break” philosophy of the Bengals defense.
Monday Night Football Bills-Bengals DFS Single-Game Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
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Week 17 Monday Night Football Bills-Bengals DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Bills-Bengals
- Josh Allen: Even on the road and with an elbow that is not 100%, his rushing upside keeps him in the top slot.
- Joe Burrow: Closer than expected to Allen; definitely worthy of the multiplier on any DFS site.
- Ja’Marr Chase: Gets the nod for being at home.
- Stefon Diggs: Easily could rank him above any and all of the above players and not get an argument from me.
- Tee Higgins: Compared to our options on Sunday Night Football, this feels like an all-star game.
- Joe Mixon: Three yards and a cloud of field turf dust.
- James Cook: Take the discount and don’t look back.
- Evan McPherson: Great surname and even better on-field game; 14 of 16 from 50 or more yards in his career.
- Dawson Knox: Touchdowns in each of the last three games.
- Hayden Hurst: If ready for a full workload, he is a solid salary saver.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Bills-Bengals
- Devin Singletary: Salary and the chance of Allen stealing red zone touches are not working in the veteran’s favor.
- Tyler Bass: Just seven field goal attempts in the last five games; Buffalo tends to score touchdowns when they are in the red zone.
- Isaiah McKenzie: Better on DraftKings with full-PPR scoring; needs to find the end zone to be a factor on FanDuel.
- Gabe Davis: We have seen him efficiently break single-game slates wide open on many occasions, but lack of volume is disconcerting at this salary.
- Samaje Perine: Some standalone value, and we know he can score from distance.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Bills-Bengals
- Mitchell Wilcox: Produced in the absence of Hurst; if for any reason Hurst is a no-go, Wilcox becomes one of the prime plays on the slate.
- Tyler Boyd: Finger injury, bad luck and a host of teammates who are capable have reduced this veteran to lottery ticket status.
- Buffalo D/ST: Should be good for a couple of turnovers, but can they convert one to a score?
- Cincinnati D/ST: Same assessment as the Buffalo D/ST.
- Trenton Irwin, Khalil Shakir and Cole Beasley: Each has merit as a last player in when looking for a discount dandy.
- Quintin Morris: DraftKings only, but at the $200 minimum salary, we can get very creative with the rest of our roster.
- Nyheim Hines: Needs multiple things to break his way before he sees more than one or two opportunities. Returns punts and kickoffs.
- Trayveon Williams: Returns kickoffs; could see a couple of offensive snaps.
- Reggie Gilliam: Sadly, no fantasy points are awarded for good blocking.
- Trent Taylor: Returns punts; unlikely to see any offensive action.
- Devin Asiasi and Chris Evans: Longest of the long shots.
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