We have a nine-game slate this evening from which to pluck our NHL DFS picks for both DraftKings and FanDuel. On a slate this large, it is imperative for Stokastic subscribers to periodically check our Discord for injury and lineup information, particularly at warmups.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
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John Tavares (TOR at WPG): DraftKings – $5,900 | FanDuel – $7,600
Despite some training camp concerns with injury and a so-so start from his team as a whole, John Tavares has begun the 2022-23 season productively with five points and 20 shots on goal in five games. On that shot rate, there are two things to know: it will come down as he’s landing 77% of his shot attempts on goal, which is too high. But in the good news column, his individual expected goals rate, even when discounting for his high rate of shots-to-shot attempts, is the highest of his career. He is taking high-quality shots and is just getting a bit unlucky for now, shooting 5%.
Going into Winnipeg presents a difficult matchup with Connor Hellebuyck in net for the Jets. What makes it a bit easier is Winnipeg’s early defensive struggles: 21st in the league by 5-on-5 expected goals allowed, a season where they finished the second half 23rd, while the penalty kill remains among the worst in the league by the same measure.
At his price, Tavares is perfectly fine to use by himself in tournaments, given the goalie he’s facing. However, his second line adding Nick Robertson gives them more offensive potency, and a low cost, means consideration for a line stack.
Dylan Cozens (BUF at VAN): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $4,600
There are a number of young skaters that Buffalo is looking for growth from and Dylan Cozens, still just 21 years old, is showing just that. He has three points in four games, and his early shot rate this season is an improvement exceeding 50% from last year. The 7th overall pick from the 2019 Draft is inside the 86th percentile of shot rate across regular forwards in the league this season. While he doesn’t skate on the team’s top power-play unit, Buffalo is spreading the ice time among its forwards with the man advantage, with just 36 seconds per night separating the regulars.
Going into Vancouver is not an overly difficult matchup for Buffalo, at least not right now. The team is 12th in the league by expected goals allowed but 28th in actual goals allowed. Goaltending hasn’t been great for the Canucks but there have also been brutal defensive miscues that the team has yet to fix.
The duo of Cozens and JJ Peterka have been great in a small sample this year, registering 3.4 expected goals and 3.7 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Cozens’ price means he’s fine to use as a punt-ish type, but a duo stack with Peterka can help load up some high-priced options elsewhere.
Winger
Alex Ovechkin (WSH vs. LAK): DraftKings – $7,700 | FanDuel – $8,700
Though he’s not off to a roaring start this year, Alex Ovechkin still has two goals and five points in five games, landing 3.8 shots per game. He does not have a cemented center as Evgeny Kuznetsov is returning from suspension but with that duo reunited, they have scored 3.4 goals per 60 minutes together over the last three seasons. They have tremendous offensive chemistry and his return should be a boon for Ovechkin.
Los Angeles visiting brings what is an unexpectedly good matchup for Washington. Through six games, the Kings are 22nd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, worse than the aforementioned Jets. Ovechkin should see a fair bit of the second line matchup as well, and that line has been among Los Angeles’s worst offenders defensively. There is a lot to like from the Russian goal scorer’s side.
At all times, Ovechkin is perfectly acceptable to use by himself in tournaments. As we saw in his game a few nights ago, he can break a game open by himself. We will wait to see where Kuznetsov slots on his return before going for a full line stack but at the list, the shot-happy winger needs our attention this evening.
Andrei Kuzmenko (VAN vs. BUF): DraftKings – $5,200 | FanDuel – $5,100
For as shaky as the Canucks have looked defensively at times, the offense has been just fine, ranking inside the top-10 by adjusted goals scored per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. A big part of the offense has been Elias Pettersson, who has six points in five games for Vancouver. His winger, Andrei Kuzmenko, has just two points but is landing over three shots per game on target. He is fifth in the league in individual expected goals per 60 minutes in all situations, ranking just behind Mika Zibanejad. A low conversion rate has kept his fantasy point totals modest, but he is generating a lot of good, quality shots. This Canucks duo is helping the team generate north of five expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
The power play has struggled for Vancouver, but Kuzmenko did manage to stay on the top unit their entire game in Minnesota on Thursday night. On the year thus far, the Sabres are allowing 10 expected goals against when down a man, but their goaltending is saving the penalty kill. A year ago, they were 21st and 23rd in expected goals and actual goals against per 60 minutes in this regard, so it’s just more of the same. This all makes Kuzmenko and Pettersson a nice tournament duo for the evening.
Joel Farabee (PHI at NSH): DraftKings – $3,700 | FanDuel – $4,000
Though it has been a point-less start to the campaign for Joel Farabee, there is no denying his monster role on the team now that he’s healthy. He has skated over 20 minutes in three of his four games and is averaging 20:48 a night. Just playing that sheer volume of minutes at his price is reason enough to give him a hard look tonight for DFS lineups.
Going into Nashville is kind of like going into Winnipeg, which we discussed earlier: there is an elite goalie in net but the team itself isn’t great defensively yet this year. The Predators are middle-of-the-pack by expected goals against at 5-on-5 and are giving up nearly five power plays per game, a year after tying for the most minor penalties taken. Farabee skating on the top Flyers power-play unit gets a small boost here tonight.
Now that the American winger has been moved to the top line, in conjunction with the top power play, he is a great value tonight on either site. Philadelphia may not be a good team, but he is playing a lot of minutes with the best players they have. His price and role mean he needs strong consideration.
Defense
Jeff Petry (PIT at CBJ): DraftKings – $4,800 | FanDuel – $5,500
A three-point effort in Pittsburgh’s most recent game highlights how much has changed for Jeff Petry. He struggled mightily to start the year last campaign in Montreal, but since the date they hired a new coach (February 9th), Petry is second among NHL defensemen in points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. His raw point total at that strength is one behind now-teammate Kris Letang. He has blocked two shots per game in that span so there are some peripherals here as well.
As we’ve frequently mentioned in these pages, Columbus remains a bad defensive team. They were near the bottom of the league by most measures last year and are the same this year, at least at 5-on-5. That is where Petry has found his production success over his previous 30-some games, and he makes a nice pivot from the expensive Letang in tournaments.
Bowen Byram (COL at VGK): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $5,400
Colorado played last night and a back-to-back on the road can be a difficult matchup, but this is still a high-octane offense on any night. With Devon Toews injured, Bowen Byram played over 25 minutes yesterday, providing a goal and an assist. He has now skated over 20 minutes in three straight games and has spent 40% of his 5-on-5 ice time skating with Nathan MacKinnon. Vegas has shown to be a tough team early in the year, but Byram could be in line for heavy minutes again at a price that hasn’t adjusted for his new reality just yet on DK. He is perfectly fine in tournaments this evening.
For a cheap FanDuel option, Mattias Samuelsson (BUF, $3,700) is one of our top values for blue liners priced at $4,000 or less and should see more minutes with Henri Jokiharju injured.
Goalie
Frederik Andersen (CAR at CGY): $7,600
We have a dynamic game tonight between Carolina and Calgary, which is interesting from a shot-volume perspective. On the season, these teams are 1st and 4th in shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, a year removed from being 3rd and 2nd. These are franchises that love firing the puck, but there is a catch: they were both top-3 in shot attempts against last year. They are both in the top-10 again this year. Andersen is projected for more goals allowed than counterpart Jacob Markstrom but the home/away splits are a factor here. This is a toss-up game and either goalie can be used but the nearly non-existent ownership on Andersen, at a reasonable price, is our selection here. Â
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
COL1: MacKinnon-Rantanen-Lehkonen
As mentioned in the Byram section, this is a back-to-back situation for the Avalanche. Those are tough games, but Colorado averaged 3.7 goals per game in the second of a B2B last season, scoring at least three goals in 5 of 7 chances. It was a bit of a different team but most of the stars are still around, and our Top Stacks tool has them with the highest leverage of any line on this slate. It can be a tough pill to swallow, taking a B2B team on a large slate, but this is a high-powered line that plays a lot of minutes and is perfectly correlated. Even in this situation, they warrant strong consideration tonight.
DAL2: Seguin-Marchment-Dellandrea
Dallas has needed scoring depth for a few seasons and Mason Marchment signing in the offseason may have solved it for them. On the second line with Tyler Seguin and Ty Dellandrea, they are generating 2.7 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The trio has 12 points in 12 total games, with Seguin and Marchment accounting for 11 of them.
Montreal has not been bad defensively to start the year, at least by some 5-on-5 metrics. However, this Dallas line should see a lot of the Montreal top line which, for as good as they are defensively, still feature defensive issues: the top line controls under 43% of the expected goals when they’re on the ice. Dallas spreads out the forward ice time, including the power play, so using a lower-priced line is perfectly acceptable this evening. Dellandrea can be left off in lieu of just making this a two-man stack.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
