Bet the Under 11 Runs at Fenway Tonight (-105)? Expert MLB Team Bets, Picks & Predictions | Friday, July 9, 2021

Today has a full slate, and a couple of really crazy bets are popping up. Even though it is going to be hard to click that bet button, in the long run these are going to be positive expectation bets. After looking at all the MLB Vegas odds and betting lines, below are some of the best free expert MLB picks, player props and predictions for Friday, July 9.

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Phillies vs. Red Sox Under 11 Runs (-105, PointsBet)

This is the first bet that is very hard to click but comes in with a positive return on investment according to Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model. This is a lofty total because Fenway Park is extremely hitter friendly in the summer months. However, it is interesting to note that the projected weather is only in the mid-60s tonight in Boston, so it is not going to be a usual hot, East Coast summer night. The pitchers in this spot do not inspire a ton of confidence but are not total gas cans either. Vince Velasquez is a case study in extremes, capable of shutting out any offense on a good night and getting blown up on a bad one. Garrett Richards is bad across the board but rarely gets totally blown up due to a 10% launch angle and only 7.8% barrels allowed. Also, both teams have very capable bullpens behind the subpar starters. Take the risk and bet the under tonight.

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Rockies vs. Padres: Colorado Moneyline (+200, DraftKings)

San Diego throws an unknown pitcher, as Blake Snell was scratched from his start. A resurgent Kyle Freeland is taking the mound for Colorado, fresh off shutting down the Pirates and Cardinals at Coors. Freeland is giving up a ton of ground balls and not much power. The odds offered at +200 signify that this bet does not need to hit that often to show a profit. Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model shows that Colorado wins this game about 40% of the time, which is way more than Vegas gives them credit for.


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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers: Arizona Moneyline (+240, BetMGM)

Taylor Widener takes the mound for the Diamondbacks facing the Dodgers tonight in Los Angeles. Widener has been impressive in his short majors stint, spinning a couple of gems against the Padres and Nationals this year. He is coming off a rehab start and should have a limited pitch count in this one. The Dodgers’ pitcher is TBD, and this could be a heavy bullpen game. There is no huge pitcher advantage for Los Angeles, and thus a +240 line seems very appetizing. That is why Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model loves this spot tonight.

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