MLB Picks, Vegas Odds & Prop Bets Today: Carlos Correa to HR +550

A tame nine-game slate awaits us for MLB betting today with hopefully less rain across the country After looking at all the MLB Vegas odds and betting lines, below are some of the best free expert MLB picks, player props and predictions for Wednesday, July 7.

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Expert MLB Picks, Player Prop Predictions & Vegas Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Over 7.5 Runs: +102 (SugarHouse)

This spot has been a total home run fest the last two days in the hot weather and wind blowing out at Wrigley Field. Today the weather will not be as conducive to hitting, but that should not matter since humidity is still 90% and Alec Mills is taking the mound for the Cubs. Averaging a putrid 89 mph on the fastball, Mills relies on keeping hitters off balance to get outs. So far that has panned out to a .378 wOBA to left-handed hitters and an xFIP of 5.00. Bryce Harper might put up 7.5 runs by himself tonight, as he has been extremely productive this season when healthy. While Zack Wheeler is a great pitcher and has strikeout upside against the Cubs, they also have power hitters up and down the order to take him deep. Joc Pederson, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are all putting up xSLGs of .450 or better this season.

Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 strikeouts: -108 (FanDuel)

This is a great spot for Wheeler to pile up strikeouts. Chicago fields a free-swinging team and seems to be embracing the variance by trying to hit the ball as hard and as far as possible. The projected Cubs lineup has one hitter striking out below 20% in Anthony Rizzo. The rest are north of 20%, with Javier Baez and Patrick Wisdom topping out at 36.6% and 41.3%, respectively. This is the top bet of the day with an expected ROI of 49% according to Awesemo’s Props Tool.

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Yusei Kikuchi Under 6.5 strikeouts: -125 (PointsBet)

The Yankees have been destroying left-handed pitching ever since they acquired Giancarlo Stanton and Luke Voit. Their splits are extremely favored against southpaws, and they get one tonight in Yusei Kikuchi. While Kikuchi is having a resurgent season with a 25.4% strikeout rate this year, this Yankee lineup has a ton of power and a very high walk rate that will lead to an elevated pitch count for Kikuchi. The under bet has the third-best expected ROI according to Awesemo’s Props Tool.

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Carlos Correa to Hit a Home Run: +550 (DraftKings)

The Props Tool loves the Astros bats at extreme plus odds. Carlos Correa has had another great year, sporting 45% hard hits, only 17% strikeouts and an xSLG of .471. Sean Manaea is no slouch when it comes to limiting power, but he has given up 40% hard hits this year with great splits for righty batters. This game also takes place in Houston with Crawford boxes looming only 350 feet away for pull-happy righties. Carlos Correa is a great MLB pick to bet tonight to hit a long ball or two against Oakland.

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