A new week begins, and there is a big Monday slate for some MLB betting predictions. With the help of the Awesemo expert MLB player prop betting tool, below are three of Awesemo’s best expert MLB bets and some player prop picks and Vegas odds for tonight’s games.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Prop Odds & Betting Picks
Julio Urias Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110, PointsBet)
Picking on the Braves with strikeouts did not work out well during the Braves – Yankees series last week, but Julio Urias has had a great year for inducing swings and misses (26%). The Braves continue striking out at an elevated rate and hit the ball extremely hard. The addition of Adam Duvall’s 30% strikeout rate and the subtraction of Ronald Acuna Jr.’s sub-20% strikeout rate have made their lineup susceptive to strikeouts. Tonight is no different, and Urias has plus odds.
Luis Castillo Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-182, FanDuel)
Luis Castillo under eight strikeouts has almost a 90% chance of success tonight. At such probabilities, Awesemo’s betting tool has this as the top bet, with an expected ROI of 37%. Castillo has pitched to contact more this year, relying on his hard pitches to get through lineups quicker and stay in games longer. He is also facing a Cardinals team that has only two players that strike out over 20%. The matchup, Castillo’s new approach and his sub-25% strikeout rate make this a good bet despite paying a lot of juice.
Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+350, Sugar House)
Eugenio Suarez home run bets against soft tossing lefties have been extremely profitable. Tonight Jon Lester and his putrid 14% strikeout rate are going up against the slugging Reds in Cincinnati. Suarez swings and misses entirely too much, as evidenced by his 31% strikeout rate, but he also has an elite 18-degree launch angle and almost 15% barrels. Taking home run swings with such a profile against a pitcher that will not induce him to swing and miss is a great recipe for success.
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