2023 Masters PGA DFS: Jordan Spieth can tear up Augusta Again

The first major championship of the PGA DFS and PGA betting season is here. The Masters has plenty of storylines to track heading into the event. Not only are top players like Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler playing at the top of their game, but this will be the first time the LIV golf defectors like Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson tee it up against the PGA Tour’s best. Not to mention, the field is full of steady hands like Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay.

It is important to remember a couple of basic rules for PGA DFS. The first is that Augusta plays similarly to a no-cut event in that it’s only an 89-man field and 10-plus golfers really have no business competing (they are just past champions and well past their prime). PGA DFS players also have to remember that although there is a cut line on Friday, it’s unique as it includes just the top 50 and ties after Friday, but also anyone within ten shots of the current leader. That makes Friday a tense day for DFS and betting since anyone who makes the cut at Augusta is capable of making a huge run on the weekend due to the layout of the course and the large number of scoring holes on the back nine.

Don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week.

PGA DFS Picks: 2023 Masters Preview

The Masters offers one of the most unique experiences of the season for betting and daily fantasy purposes. The field is condensed and the course is built to set itself apart from nearly every other venue on the PGA. Augusta National is an extremely hilly and undulating par 72 that is set to play at 7,545 for the 2023 event. The course has been constantly tinkered with by the Augusta committee since the late 2000s when Tiger Woods showed the world that the venue was no longer able to contain the modern golfer.

The most recent changes involved the 11th and 15th holes where they adjusted tee boxes and fairways to make the holes play tougher. The modifications have helped over the past two seasons as the winners have reached just 10-under par. In 2022 only two players (Scheffler and McIlroy) were able to post scores that exceeded 5-under par. It is worth noting that there have been some very similar names appear on the leaderboard since the changes. Supreme ball striker Corey Conners has finished top 10 at this event in each of the past two seasons as has putting and around the green wizard Cameron Smith.

The last two winners in Scottie Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama are both well known for their consistency across the board in the ball-striking department and, interestingly enough, both men have featured at TPC Scottsdale- another venue that provides a nice blend of scoring holes (short par 5s) and longer par 4s.

Players trending well in the strokes gained tee to green department should be the first stop. Since 2017, each of the past five April winners (not including 2020) at Augusta has had at least one start on the year where they have gained six or more strokes tee to green in an event. Additionally, five of the past six winners have finished the season ranked top 20 in strokes gained tee to green stats.

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Masters Betting Trends

No player has won at Augusta in their first attempt since Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979.
Since 1996, only one player has won the Masters after missing the cut here in the previous year (Patrick Reed 2018).
Eleven of the last 14 winners of the Masters ranked 19th or better in strokes gained tee to green in the year of their victory.
Each of the past five winners (when the Masters was played in April) had gained over six strokes tee to green in at least one start on the calendar year.

Below are some of the top players in the field to watch this week given their recent form and course history:

Scottie Scheffler: Scheffler’s 2023 lead-up to Augusta has been just as dominant as his 2022 lead-in. He’s coming off a semi-finals appearance at the Match Play and a win in his last stroke play event at Sawgrass.
Rory McIlroy: McIlroy has posted 3rd and 2nd place finishes in two of his last three starts. He’s second in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green stats over the last 50 rounds.
Corey Conners: Conners won last week in Texas and won his pod at the Match Play. He’s peaking at just the right time for an event where he’s finished top 10 the last two seasons.
Max Homa: Homa put up an impressive 6th place at the PLAYERS and also won his pod at the Match Play. There has been no letdown from him since an early win at the Farmers in January.
Jordan Spieth: Spieth has really started to come on over the last couple of months. Two top-five finishes in Florida and some great tee-to-green stats make him look ready to challenge for another green jacket.

Field Notes: Despite an injury causing him to withdraw at the Match Play, Hideki Matsuyama looked healthy last week and posted a top-20 at Valero. He is still a risky start this week but looks fine to deploy. Brooks Koepka had a great start last week on the LIV Tour, where he took home a win. He has played well in his last two starts and certainly is someone to consider for DFS this week. Louis Oosthuizen is dealing with an elbow tendon injury that could cause him to withdraw any week. He’s risky to begin with, just due to him being on LIV, but he brings an injury element into play too.

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2023 Masters Past Winners and Winners Stats

2022: Scottie Scheffler

Lead-in: win/55/win (three wins on the season, had not missed a cut in 2022)
Scheffler was dominant in all things leading into his 2022 win. He had no real blemishes in his lead-up and is one of the rare instances where the favorite in the betting odds goes on to win the first major of the season.

2021: Hideki Matsuyama

Lead in: 30/MC/18 (two missed cuts, best finish was 15th WGC Mexico)
Matsuyama played a very busy schedule on his lead-up to Augusta. He started slowly but showcased better play in March and really popped around the greens and on approach in his last start at the Valero.

2020 (played in November): Dustin Johnson

Lead-in: 2/6/win, (won in November due to the pandemic, had three runner-up finishes and two wins in prior six starts)
Johnson’s win came in November when the PGA was trying to squeeze in a revamped schedule into the backend of 2020. He rode a hot wave of play and used a soft course to grab his first green jacket.

Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

2023 Masters Course Preview

TPC San Antonio: Par 72,

Greens: Bentgrass

Designer: Dr. Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones (1933)

Similar Courses: Riviera, Quail Hollow

Augusta is a standard par-72 course with four par 5s, four par 3s, and 10 par 4s. Despite its classic setup, the track plays anything but standard thanks to it being one of the hilliest and most winding walks on the PGA Tour.

Several holes have big elevation changes between the tee box and the green and there are doglegs built into many holes to make it more challenging off the tee. Typically this has favored players who drive it from right to left (draw for a righty, fade for a lefty). A couple of prominent left-handed players in Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson — and two right-handed players who primarily play a draw in Patrick Reed and Zach Johnson — have won this event over the past 20 years shows how tricky this setup can be for those who do not move the ball a certain way.

As far as the individual holes go, here’s a brief breakdown of what awaits the players this week:

Par 5s 550-600: 2; Par 5s 500-550: 2; Par 4s over 500: 1; Par 4s 450-500: 5; Par 4s 400-450: 3; Par 4s under 400: 1; Par 3s over 200: 1; Par 3s 150-200: 3

Since a couple of holes were lengthened in 2021 the venue has produced back-to-back winners at 10-under par. Both the par 4 11th hole and par 5 15th play tougher than they used and it’s made low numbers on the back nine less prevalent. Scoring is still available as all of the par 5’s offer legitimate birdie chances but players who don’t take advantage of those holes will be left to scramble just to remain at par.

With poor weather expected this season look for a bigger emphasis on around-the-green play. Scrambling at Augusta is anything but easy, and the average up-and-down rate at this course comes in 5% to 10% under the PGA average. Shorter hitters may also benefit in 2023 if the par 5s become three-shot holes for the field. It is worth noting that tougher conditions 2016’s and 2007’s have led to some of the biggest upset/longshot winners of the past 20 years.

More of a premium on bogey avoidance and around-the-green play could be something to consider in 2023 since Green-in-Regulation percentages are likely to be much lower — potentially even worse than the last two seasons.

Key Stats: Strokes Gained: Tee to Green / Strokes Gained: Around the Greens / Three-Putt Avoidance

2023 Masters Recent Form Watch

Top Strokes Gained: Around the Greens (Last 50 Rounds)

Justin Thomas
Danny Willett
Tommy Fleetwood
Billy Horschel
Scottie Scheffler

Top Three-Putt Avoidance (Last 50 Rounds)

Tyrrell Hatton
Chris Kirk
Keegan Bradley
Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler

Top Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Last 50 Rounds)

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Tony Finau
Patrick Cantlay
Justin Thomas

2023 Masters Weather Forecast

Messy is likely the best way to describe weather this week. This should be highly considered when building PGA DFS lineups.

Thursday morning: 70-75 F, winds 10-15 mph/0-20% chance of precipitation

Thursday afternoon: 80-82 F, winds 5-10 mph/40% chance of precipitation

Thursday seems OK. It will be warm, and the winds look stronger in the morning. The issue is there could be afternoon thunderstorms, but they may miss the course. There is a small advantage for the afternoon wave, but if those rounds have to finish Friday, that’s a disadvantage.

Friday morning: 60-65 F, winds 10-15 mph/40% chance of precipitation

Friday afternoon: 65-70 F, winds 10-15 mph/50% chance of precipitation

Friday is when the trouble starts. Consistent gusts over 20 mph are expected all day. There is a strong chance of showers too. It is possible the weather tapers off a bit in the afternoon but considering it’s a weather system it will be impossible to predict the timing by Wednesday. There is a chance of stoppages and the cut extending into Saturday.

Weekend Forecast:

Saturday could be a washout, or at the very least will be a very tough day. Gusts are again expected to be over 20 mph and rain is expected for most of the day. There will be no place to hide. It will also be cool with temperatures in the 55 F range.

Sunday could be the nicest day of the event. The temperatures will rise into the 65-degree range, and it will be overcast with dying winds.

2023 Masters DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets

Jordan Spieth | BetMGM Outright

Jordan Spieth’s lead-up into the first major of 2023 has been quite ideal. He started off with a poor missed cut at the Sony (where he went from first-round leader to missing the weekend) but followed that up with 6th place at the WM Phoenix Open. He really turned it on in Florida, where he grabbed top-five finishes at both Bay Hill and the Valspar, two courses that consistently test players with tough conditions. Spieth has gained seven strokes or more tee to green in three of his last five starts on the PGA and has been consistent with his ball striking and around-the-green play, where he’s gained over one stroke in each of his last three starts.

His lead-up tracks well with past winners like Patrick Reed and Hideki Matsuyama, who weren’t dominant in the early months, but had strong lead-up results in their final three starts. Maybe he doesn’t belong in the top tier of players with Scheffler and Rahm, but Spieth’s great equalizer is the course. He’s fourth in scoring average at Augusta in the field and is the only player in the field with more than 30 rounds played at Augusta with an average score better than 71 (70.71). At double or better the odds of the top players, Jordan Spieth’s a worthy outright target this week.

Si Woo Kim | BetMGM Outright

Longshots do not typically prevail at Augusta, but for placing bets and DFS purposes, Si Woo Kim should be on radars. He had a dominant victory to begin his season at the Sony Open. He tailed off afterward but continued to make cuts with his only blemish being at Riviera in February. He’s been uber-consistent off the tee all year, gaining over one stroke off the tee in each of his last three stroke-play starts, and hasn’t dropped off much in around-the-green play. His last start at the PLAYERS also saw him gain over seven strokes on approach and over eight strokes tee to green, which nearly matched the kind of output he put up in his win at the Sony.

Kim’s also playing Augusta for the seventh time this year and while his previous best is 12th place finish from 2021, there’s reason to think his improved off-the-tee play will allow him to better handle some of the tougher holes. Kim’s got savant-like skills on a golf course and has proven himself to be a killer when he gets a sniff of the lead. If someone from the future were to tell me a true outsider was going to win this week, Kim would likely be the first name I’d ask about. With him still generally available at 80-1 at several sportsbooks in the outright market, he makes for a good target for those looking to expand their card to include a couple of longshot options.