PGA DFS Fades & Pivots Honda Classic: Alex Noren Fooling Everyone?

(Editor’s Note: Alex Noren withdrew from the Honda Classic after publication)

The Honda Classic is a full-field event that features a 144-man starting list and a regular Friday cutline. It is a big step down in weight class from the last two tournaments in that a lot of the top names on the PGA Tour have chosen to skip this week. That means there is a far weaker top of the field and more volatility in DFS. Plus, PGA National also has plenty of water and penalties galore for even slightly off-kilter shots. In short, do not be shocked if there is some carnage and some big-time disappointments from the top names in this field.

Fading all of the higher-ranked players is not advisable, but this event is also a great time to take a few more risks with lineup construction. Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and PGA DFS ownership projections will become vital for sorting out this field and which chalky players will be good fades this week.

Below are some of the top PGA DFS fades and pivots for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy lineups. Stokastic’s expert PGA DFS projections and rankings can help identify the best picks for the 2023 Honda Classic.

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PGA DFS Golf Fades & Pivots | Honda Classic

PGA National Golf Links Stats and Info

Greens-in-regulation percentages are very low at PGA National, typically 5% to 8% lower for the field than an average tour stop. Water and longer approaches into many par 3’s and 4’s cause higher rates of misses.
Driving distance is also de-emphasized at PGA National, as the average for the week has typically come in 8 to 10 yards under tour average. Players are often forced to club down to avoid water or due to doglegs.
The last two winners here gained five strokes or more on approach for the week, and each of the last three winners gained three or more strokes around the green as well.

2023 Honda Classic DFS Golf Fades and Pivots

High-End Fade: Min Woo Lee

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 32.1% | FanDuel: 37.3%

Min Woo Lee looks like a great player, and down the road there’s a chance he will be reliable in situations like this when he is near the top of the odds and trending as the weekly chalk for DFS. This week likely is not one of them. Lee is pushing over 30% projected ownership on DraftKings this week and has never played the Bear Trap or PGA National during a PGA event. He may be talented enough to overcome that deficit, but it is not worth taking on massive ownership this week to find out if that is the case in large-field GPPs. Lee is also projecting somewhat weaker compared to other players in the $9,000 range on DraftKings, and Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections have numerous players with lower ownership ranked in front of him. Take the wait-and-see approach this week on a player who is making his first PGA start of the season.

High-End Pivot: Alex Noren

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 11.3% | FanDuel: 12.3%

Noren is projecting for about a third of the ownership of Lee, making him a massive leverage play for this week. The sentiment for Noren is nice and low after two missed cuts, but PGA National’s setup works much more in his favor. Noren has played PGA National numerous times and posted top-5 finishes in two of his past four starts at this event. The results the last couple of weeks may not look great for him, but he only missed the cut by a stroke at Phoenix and has plenty of good results off of missed cuts over his career. Noren’s PGA DFS projections are also very strong, with the second-highest top-6 probability rating of anyone in the $9,000 range on DraftKings. He makes for an excellent pivot off the popular Lee.

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High-End Fade: Denny McCarthy

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 19.8%| FanDuel: 16.7%

McCarthy’s weekend play at Riviera has certainly pushed his odds lower in the outright market and his overall DFS sentiment higher for the Honda Classic. McCarthy has played some inspired rounds over the last few weeks but is always just one semi-cold putting week away from destroying lineups in PGA DFS tournaments. Approaches are not his strength, so when the putts don’t drop for him, the scores tend to inflate much higher very quickly. He has the lowest top-6 probability rating in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections this week, and with ownership that could see him breach the 20% mark. With that kind of weaker combo, he makes for a solid fade in larger-field tournaments this week as well.

High-End Pivot: Taylor Pendrith

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 10.6% | FanDuel: 10.9%

Pendrith had a couple of mediocre/poor starts at the beginning of the season, but he’s shown flashes of late that his A-game may not be that far off. A seventh at Pebble Beach two weeks ago was followed by another made cut in Phoenix, where Pendrith has continued to show great upside on the greens. Pendrith has gained strokes putting in five straight events and put in a 25th at this event last season. He will need a solid week around the greens, but the rest of his game has the upside to overcome a lower-end field like this week. With Pendrith trending towards the 10% range for ownership, he makes sense as a pivot option off the more popular names in his range like McCarthy.

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Mid-Range Fade: Nick Hardy

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 14.6% | FanDuel: 9.2%

Hardy has only played this event once and missed the cut. He looks like a solid player, but fit-wise there are better options in his range on DraftKings for PGA National. He has lost strokes around the green in three of his last four starts, and while he’s shown upside as a ball striker, Hardy has also gained less than a stroke on approach now in his last two starts. That’s a lot of issues for a player to overcome at PGA National where short games have to be sharp and iron play is essential. Hardy’s projecting to be nearly 15% owned on DraftKings as of writing and makes for a solid fade here.

Mid-Range Pivot: Danny Willett

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 8.3% | FanDuel: 4.9%

Unlike Hardy, Willet’s short game is tailor-made for a venue like PGA National. He is a great bunker player and ranks second in the field in strokes gained around the green over the past 50 rounds. Willett is also the kind of veteran player who can have a lot of success around PGA National, and past winners like Padraig Harrington and Matt Jones give off a lot of the same vibes that Willett does at this point in his career. He nearly won over the fall and has made two solid starts in a row after dealing with early-season shoulder issues, finishing 18th last week at Riviera. With PGA DFS projections under 10% on him as of writing, it is hard to find any reason to doubt Willett as a solid lower-owned option to consider in larger fields.