This week sees the PGA TOUR stay in Hawaii for one more week. The Sony Open is one of the oldest events on the PGA TOUR and has been a mainstay on the PGA since 1965. It is also one of those rare events that has never seen a venue change, being played at Waialae Country Club in the island of Oahu since inception. This tournament represents the first full field event of the season and will have a regular Friday cut line in play with the top 65 players and ties getting to play the weekend. That means the dynamics for Sony Open DFS and betting are greatly changed as we’ll have plenty of lower ranked players and Korn Ferry Tour graduates in the field — and playing a course that tends to deemphasize power.
As for the venue, Waialae Country Club is almost the complete opposite in setup to last week’s course. Waialae plays as a tight par 70 at just over 7,000 yards with very small greens and some of the toughest fairways to hit on the PGA TOUR. That doesn’t mean it’s overly difficult but it will require more precision iron play and place more emphasis on around the green play. Typically we lots of veteran type of players excel at Waialae and recent winners have included names like Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar and Kevin Na — all players who were well into their mid 30’s or even early 40’s when they won.
Last year saw Hideki Matsuyama (who is now a ripe 30-years old himself) win in somewhat historic comeback fashion. Matsuyama is back in the field this week along with a few other big name players.
Don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data, and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week. The smaller field means every edge will be significant.
PGA DFS Picks: 2023 Sony Open Preview
This field this week features 144-man field. As of writing, the top player in the field looks like it will be Jordan Spieth, who sits at 14th in the OWGR. Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley all are also set to tee to it up in Honolulu and it’s important to note which of the players from last week’s Hawaii event will be in the field for this week. Of the past five winners of this event, four had played the week prior at the Tournament of Champions and the trend of winners at this event using the first Hawaii event as a warmup (prior to winning the Sony) is strong over the past 20 years or so.
From a DFS perspective, approach form is crucial at Waialae and top finishers tend to gain far more on approach and putting than any of the other strokes gained categories. As an older course, the site lines and doglegs tend to make taking driver on every hole difficult and driving accuracy tends to be lower at this event than almost any other event on the PGA.
Players who can guide the ball repetitively straight off the tee will certainly fair much better than those spraying it and taking themselves out of position for a solid approach.
Below are some of the top players in the field this week from a recent for perspective:
- Tom Hoge: Hoge finished in 3rd last week mostly thanks to a blazing final nine-under round in Maui. The American was lights out with his approaches ranking first for the week in strokes gained approach stats. Hoge’s week could have been even better if he’d have found a few more putts early. He’ll undoubtedly be a popular pick at the Sony considering he nearly won the event in 2018.
- JJ Spaun: Spaun continued his consistent run from the fall swing with a tied for 5th place performance last week. He’s now finished 15th or better in three straight starts and was consistent across the board last week. Spaun’s putter can ebb or flow so he’s likely a better regression candidate than Hoge and he has never finished better than 47th at the Sony Open in five past appearances.
- Tom Kim: Kim was up or near the top five almost all week in Maui, showing absolutely no disadvantage from the long layoff he had at the end of last season. The South Korean struck the ball extremely well most of the week ranking top five in strokes gained approach stats. The tricky Bermuda greens in Hawaii may continue to give him trouble next week but fading him due to inexperience will likely be a costly mistake this season.
- KH Lee: Two-time Byron Nelson winner KH Lee is also coming in with some form. The veteran shot four under or better in all four rounds, grabbed a share of 7th place and was solid with his putter throughout. He sets up well for this week’s course and is only two starts removed from a 3rd place finish at the CJ Cup over the fall.
- Brian Harman: Harman is another player who showed some great form over last fall and that form continued on last week in Maui. He only managed a 16th place last week but ranked top 10 in strokes gained approach stats and tee to green stats. His putter can switch on in a hurry and he’s played the Sony Open 11-times now in his career with a 4th place finish in 2018 being his best result.
Field notes: Other players who were in the field in Maui last week and will also be in the field this week include Billy Horschel, Corey Conners, Adam Scott and Sungjae Im… some of the other big names who will be in attendance but didn’t play last week include Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Harris English, Maverick McNealy and Keith Mitchell… former number one amateur player in the world Cole Hammer will also be playing and he’ll have some confidence built up after posting a 5th place finish (his best ever result on the PGA) at the RSM Classic late last year.
Sony Open Past Winners and Winners Stats
2022: Hideki Matsuyama
- Lead-in: 13/59/67, (Matsuyama finished in 13th place at the TOC the week prior)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 3.6/SG:APP 2.6/SG:ATG 1.2 /SG:PUTT 7.3/SG:TTG 7.4
2021: Kevin NaÂ
- Lead in: 38/13/28 (Na finished in 38th place at the TOC the week prior)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 0.4/SG:APP 5.7/SG:ATG 2.6/SG:PUTT 3.3/SG:TTG 8.7
2020: Cameron Smith
- Lead-in: 60/3/13, (Smith didn’t play in Maui at the TOC the week prior)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 1.8/SG:APP -0.8/SG:ATG 2.4/SG:PUTT 8.2/SG:TTG 3.4
As you can tell by some of the stats of past winners at this event, holing a ton of putts this week will be crucial. Players won’t be able to rely on driving greens or beating up on par 5’s with their driver to anywhere near the extent of last week. Sharp iron play will also be needed and most of the winners at this event typically gain 3.0 or more strokes for the week on approach (Cam Smith being the one exception and the weather the year he won was some of the poorest this event has ever seen).
From an approach standpoint there’s a solid mix of mid to long range par 4’s and with no real opportunities to the drive the greens on these holes, so short to mid iron approach again becomes key. Players who can get into a solid repetitive grove with their approaches here will benefit in the long run. Of course predicting that big spike week with the putter will be key as well but focusing in on those who held solid form on approach last week and into last fall should be a good starting point.
Of the last 11 winners of this event, nine of them had recorded a 6th place or better finish in one of their last four starts prior to their Sony Open win. Additionally, nine of the last 11 winners have also now played in the TOC over in Maui the week prior.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
2023 Sony Open Course Preview
Waialae Country Club — Honolulu, HawaiiÂ
Par 70, 7,044 yards
Greens: Bermudagrass
Designer: Seth Raynor (1927)
Renovation Architects: Robert Trent Jones
Similar Courses: OHL Classic (El Chameleon), Colonial, Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
Waialae Country Club is a classic tree-lined design with little to no elevation that plays along the ocean. In most ways, it is the polar opposite to what we saw last week as the venue is far more claustrophobic and plays as a par 70 with only two par 5’s. The course is strewn with mid to longer range par 4’s, 10 or which are over 400 yards in length and five of which come in between 450-500 yards.
Some stats and more info about the course is below:
- Waialae has some of the smallest and tightest fairways on the PGA TOUR. Player who win this week typically rely more on placement than power.
- Even on the closing par 5, accuracy off the tee is more important than pure power as any tee shot too far off the fairway risks being stuck in a bunker or cut off from having a clear shot to the pin on approach.
- Smaller greens also put more of an emphasis on approach play and GIR% will come way down this week compared to last. Players who can be hyper accurate will give themselves a chance to take advantage of what are generally simple green structures and much easier to sink longer putts on than last week.
- Scrambling isn’t overly difficult, although players will need to be at least competent around these smaller greens as short games will get tested a decent amount. Chipping may slightly easier but players will likely find themselves with a few more off the green attempts per round.
We have solid handful of these kinds of classic courses on the PGA TOUR so knowing what kinds of players to target this week — and how this course will actually play — isn’t overly difficult. Waialae fits very much in the same mold as Harbour Town, Colonial and other older venues like Sedgefield as well. Ultimately, experience would be nice but you truly should be looking for players with solid recent form who you think won’t get bored by this layout — and can fire 12-14 solid approaches per round on these par 4’s and easier par 5’s. After that, Waialae just comes down to a putting contest for the pros.
2023 Sony Open Recent Form Watch
Strokes Gained on Approach (last 50 Rounds)
- Russell Henley
- Corey Conners
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Tom Hoge
- Mark Hubbard
Strokes Gained Putting (last 50 rounds)
- Maverick McNealy
- Brendon Todd
- Taylor Montgomery
- Andrew Putnam
- Denny McCarthy
Strokes Gained Total (last six events)
- Patrick Rodgers
- Alex Smalley
- Brian Harman
- Andrew Putnam
- Maverick McNealy
Sony Open Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 77-78 F, winds 5 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Thursday p.m.: 80 F, winds 6-7 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday a.m.: 78 F, winds 3-4 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday p.m.: 82 F, winds 5 mph/0% chance of precipitation
As of now, there’s zero reason to worry about the weather. Maybe something changes and one of the waves sees some wind but wave stacking doesn’t seem likely to gain you any traction this week. Expect lower scoring and great iron players to really be able to go pin seeking this year.
2023 Sony Open Early Betting Targets and DFS Picks
Corey Conners | BetMGM Outright
Conners didn’t do anything overly great last week, but he did end with a 6-under round on Sunday and finished a tidy if unassuming 18th. The Canadian was playing the TOC for the first time in his career last week but that won’t be the case for the Sony Open, as he’s played Waialae four times in the past and posted some great results at this event — including a 3rd-place finish in 2019 and an 11th at this event last year. The bit and pieces of Conners’ game can ebb and flow but he’s gained strokes on approach in seven straight events now and did manage a solid top-five in a play off event last fall. As a member of the President’s Cup team from last fall, his confidence should be solid and he’ll be a great outright target this week assuming he falls outside the top five in betting odds.
Scott looks like a ripe positive regression candidate on the greens for this week at the Sony. He lost over 5.0 strokes putting last week in Maui but had been putting extremely well at points last fall. His ball-striking last week was solid, gaining him over a stroke off the tee and on approach. Scott’s the kind of veteran that has excelled at Waialae over the years and has multiple top 10 finishes at this event, including a 2nd place from 2009. If you want deeper odds but still want the allure of playing someone who used Maui as their warmup last week Scott’s the guy you should be targeting early on Monday when the outright odds are released.
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