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If you missed our PlayLine Primer or original PlayLine article, I highly recommend you read it first. Awesemo did an outstanding job explaining how to create your own projections for these contests. I’ll be repeating a lot of that process here, in lesser detail.
Today, I’ll be projecting the expected points, rebounds and assists for Anthony Davis tonight versus the Golden State Warriors. Davis is one of three guys in the “Awesemo.com Presents: $1,000,000 Perfect Line Bonus + $5,000 GTD – Gold Rush” tournament tonight on PlayLine.
Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the charts below. It’s really simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!
You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.
Davis and the Pelicans are fighting for their playoff lives tonight as they head back to New Orleans for Game 3 against the Warriors. If the Pelicans are going to have any chance in this series, it’s going to take a monster game from AD to do it. Below, you’ll find Davis’ averages and deviations for this season so that we can better create a baseline.
Average: 28.2 points, 2.3 assists, 11.2 rebounds
Standard Deviations: 9.5 points, 1.6 assists, 3.6 rebounds
In general, you should be aiming to be within 1.5 standard deviations of the average. I would start my build in the following range:
Points: 18 to 38
Assists: 0 to 4
Rebounds: 7 to 15
Between the stakes of this game, the return to New Orleans and the monstrous implied total, I’m expecting big things from Anthony Davis tonight. I want to be on the higher end of the averages for my picks. With an average of 28.2 points throughout this season, I’m going to lean a bit higher, probably around 34 points. Davis hasn’t been much of an assist guy, so I’ll likely be around 3 or 4. I’m expecting a big night on the glass, though, which will be essential for the Pelicans’ chances. For my first pass on Davis, I’m going with 34 points, 4 assists and 14 rebounds. That’s a monster game from The Brow. The problem is, it might not be enough.