Welcome to The Takedown, UFC fans. This weekend we have a 12-fight card in Las Vegas including a main event between Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns. The main GPP has $150,000 going to first place, with a total of $600,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for MMA DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some DraftKings and FanDuel UFC DFS picks and analysis for UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns.
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UFC 258: Usman vs Burns DraftKings + FanDuel UFC DFS Picks
Core MMA DFS Plays
Rodolfo Vieira | DraftKings: $9,300, FanDuel 23
Vieira is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion and seven-time World Cup champion. He is an elite grappler and will be a huge threat to Hernandez when this fight hits the canvas. Vieira is one of the best plays on the card at -240 to finish inside the distance. I expect Vieira to finish Anthony Hernandez late first round. Awesemo’s UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Projections give Vieira 78% win odds with a 67% chance for a knockout.
Kamaru Usman | DraftKings: $9,000, FanDuel: 21
Usman will be facing his former teammate and training partner Gilbert Burns. As such, this should be an interesting and extremely entertaining fight. Usman is a solid core play on this slate. In his last four fights, Usman has scored 130-plus fantasy points, and the highest score was 194. Usman should be well over 50% owned on this slate, and Usman is my second-favorite play on this slate. Our UFC DFS projections give Usman 72% win odds, and he is also the highest projected fighter on the slate.
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Mid-Priced MMA DFS Picks
Mallory Martin | DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: 18
Martin will be looking to keep her momentum going after a submission victory over Hannah Cifers back in August 2020.In her fight with Cifers, Martin was knocked down in the first round and was awfully close to being finished. Martin will need to be careful when this fight hits the canvas because Polyana Viana has a dangerous ground game. That said, I expect Martin will be the better wrestler and can inflict nasty ground-and-pound. Our UFC DFS projections give Martin 57% win odds.
Philip Rowe | DraftKings: $8,200, FanDuel: $14
Rowe is a good mid-range play for his $8,200 priced point. This fight could go either way, but I expect Rowe will have the power advantage, and he has a seven-inch reach advantage over Gabe Green. This should be a high-pace striking battle, and Rowe’s height and reach advantage will test the chin of Green early and often. Awesemo’s UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel fighter Projections give Rowe 43% win odds with a 30% chance for a knockout.
Value MMA DFS Picks
Gilbert Burns | DraftKings: $7,200, FanDuel: 18
Burns will need to get this fight to the mat and use his jiu-jitsu to have any chance of beating Kamaru Usman. Burns is one of the best grapplers in the UFC, and his jiu-jitsu is extremely dangerous. That said, he will have trouble getting Usman to the canvas given Usman’s phenomenal takedown defense. However, If Burns can get this fight to the canvas, then he would have a solid chance at locking in a submission. Burns would pay off his $7,200 price tag with a victory over Usman, which would make a solid value play. Our UFC DFS projections give Burns 28% win odds.
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