Following Kyle Larson‘s victory in the inaugural Cup race at Nashville, we’re heading back to Pennsylvania for the NASCAR race this week. Let’s recap Larson’s third straight victory and go over what to expect in NASCAR DFS with our DraftKings and FanDuel picks this week at Pocono.
NASCAR DFS Pocono Preview: DraftKings & FanDuel Picks
Nashville Two-Step
Two steps were all Larson needed to grab the lead this past Sunday and put the field to shame once again. Had the inevitable cut tire of Quin Houff, albeit on the first lap, not immediately bunched up the field, perhaps Kyle Busch would have taken the lead and put some early distance between himself and Larson. However, Houff did happen, and on the ensuing restart Larson took turn 1 three-wide and grabbed the lead.
In all, Larson led a whopping 264 of this past Sunday’s 300 laps. Never once did anyone outrace Larson for the lead, as the 36 laps he didn’t lead were either Busch’s initial first five laps or during pit cycling. What Larson accomplished this past Sunday was nothing short of spectacular, leading as if he was the only driver who had practice time on Saturday.
Besides Larson’s third straight victory, fourth if his All-Star win is considered, the main headline at Nashville were brakes. Cup teams tried to walk a delicate tight rope of not using too heavy of a rotor and several teams went over the side. In all, six teams wrecked out due to their rotors failing as the rotors were too small for the extreme braking of Nashville. Several times both FOX and NBC broadcasters compared Nashville to a mix of an intermediate and short track. The short track aspect of heavy braking, following speed built up in the long straightaways, proved itself true as several teams guessed wrong on how big of a rotor they would need.
Pocono Double-Header
As stated above, NASCAR returns to Pocono for a double-header this weekend. Back-to-back Cup races should be a fun concept. However, when one considers the mundane type of racing fans witness at Pocono, the element of fun slips out the window.
Saturday’s race, the Pocono Organics CBD 325, will have the field set according to the proprietary formula. Sunday’s event, the Explore the Pocono Mountains 350, will take Saturday’s results, invert the top 20 and then leave everyone who finished 21st and beyond in that same spot for Sunday. Once again, as this is a track the Cup drivers have seen before, there will be no practice to mirror the absence of qualifying.
Although the track and drivers will remain static from Saturday to Sunday, the way NASCAR is setting the starting grid for each day creates different dynamics for DFS. Thankfully, this double-header idea for Pocono was utilized last year. DFS players have an idea of what to anticipate for each race’s roster construction.
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Pocono Organics CBD 325
The majority of NASCAR DFS enthusiasts will play both days. However, for those who prefer a race with a traditional setup, as far as where drivers are starting, they should focus on Saturday’s event. With potential dominators starting upfront, the Pocono Organics CBD 325 should be the typical milquetoast Pocono race.
This lackluster racing is the result of Pocono’s unique shape. At 2.5 miles in length, Pocono measures out as one of NASCAR’s longest venues. Furthermore, when this length is spread out over three straightaways and three corners into a true triangle, the racing just isn’t impressive. Despite this track utilizing the low-horsepower/high-downforce racing package, the No. 1 factor in performance will come down to horsepower. Also, with little to no banking, the lack of downforce makes little difference either.
This all culminates into a track where passing is tough and starting position correlates to where drivers finish. Oddly enough, for a track with the same length as Daytona, Pocono almost has a short track aspect to it. As far as DFS goes on Saturday, with just 130 laps on tap, more emphasis belongs on drivers with place differential and finishing points upside.
However, don’t be tempted to chase just those two scoring metrics. Due to Pocono’s characteristics, there will assuredly be a dominator. Dating back to 2013, the top lap leader at Pocono has led 75 laps on average. With so few laps, those dominator points are going to be valuable. Every single Pocono race in that same time span has had a secondary dominator who averages around 35 laps led. Yet with the way the past month has played out in NASCAR, betting on a second driver to lead laps has been a losing proposition.
Explore the Mountains 350
For DFS players who prefer less theory going into their process, Sunday will be the day to play. With Sunday’s starting grid getting based on half of the field getting inverted, the top-performing drivers from Saturday will be forced to start in the teens. Consequently, the drivers who finished in the latter teens will be given the top starting spots on Sunday. Furthermore, if anyone has issues on Saturday that forces them to finish poorly, that same spot they finished in is where they will start on Sunday.
This all culminates in a situation for DFS where place differential and finishing position truly sit paramount among all other factors. If this sounds a lot like building a lineup for a superspeedway race, it should. With just 140 laps on tap, what’s going to matter most is who, among all of the best drivers starting in the teens, can ascend forward and possibly grab some dominator points in the process.
Last year’s second Pocono race had this same inversion formula. In that event, only two drivers who started in the top 10 managed to finish in the top 10. Meanwhile, the top 10 finishers started in order; 19th, 20th, 38th, 25th, 18th, eighth, seventh, 14th, 27th, and 15th. Therefore, optimal lineup construction for Sunday is going to lend itself to nailing the right combination of drivers with place differential upside who can also finish in the top 10.
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