Wednesday’s massive midweek slate features 11 games, with the day’s largest point spread sitting at just 7. The board full of potentially close games bodes well for NBA DFS production up and down the salary spectrum and there are a number of highly targetable spots for star power and value already. With plenty of news left to break before lock, things are bound to change, so keeping an eye on the news is critical before and after lock. On a slate of this size late-swapping lineups becomes almost mandatory, as not only will the NBA lineups change, one’s DraftKings and FanDuel situations also change through the night as players over and underperform. Starting from a strong foundation of highly optimal plays with positive leverage is a strong approach to any slate, particularly one of this size.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With 11 games on the slate, this will be a close look at several of the positive leverage options. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Leverage Leaders Today
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
C.J. McCollum: DraftKings — $8,100 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $8,000 — SG
Both Trail Blazers guards are underpriced on today’s slate, but it is C.J. McCollum who stands out for positive leverage across both sites, while Damian Lillard is one of the more negatively leveraged players on the slate. Lillard looks like a strong option and a case of “good chalk” for this one, but McCollum carries significant value for his lack of public popularity. He has picked up right where he left off last season, averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute after posting 1.11 and seeing 29.2% usage compared to 29.9% last year. McCollum has a 55.7% true shooting percentage and a 16.2% assist rate, and he sees 34.2 minutes a night. The production is reliable, and McCollum is an affordable option from the top of the mid-range salary tier on both sites, though it is FanDuel where he truly shines.
With multi-position eligibility on DraftKings, there is slightly more utility to McCollum, but he comes in less frequently optimal with an 11.1% rate. That mark sits 15th overall on the site, but fourth among eligible point guards and sixth among shooting guards. He is carrying a 39.7-point median DraftKings projection and a 20.8% boom score probability and will be owned by less than 10% of the field, giving him a slightly positive leverage score on the slate. The leverage is a playable number, with largely efficient ownership in many corners of the slate, and McCollum is a reasonably priced play for a clear path toward a ceiling score on the site. Getting ahead of the field on McCollum is a viable approach, but he is not one to over-extend for on the site.
On the FanDuel slate, McCollum comes up as a strong play for both upside and leverage. He has a 15% optimal lineup rate that ranks 10th among players of any position and sixth among shooting guards. He lacks point guard eligibility on the site but maintains a strong projection and boom score. His median projection is 38.5 fantasy points, and he has a 25th-ranked 19.9% boom score probability. McCollum’s best asset on the site is his healthy 6.2 leverage score; the public’s 8.8% ownership projection is roughly half of what it should be. For a player with McCollum’s scoring upside to be under-owned to that degree on a slate of this size and shape is advantageous.
Thaddeus Young: DraftKings — $4,100 — PF/C | FanDuel — $4,600 — PF/C
The Spurs announced that center Jakob Poeltl will enter the league’s health and safety protocols and will miss the team’s next few games. This leaves San Antonio in a lurch when it comes to the frontcourt, with Thaddeus Young and Drew Eubanks the likely candidates to split time in the middle. Of the two, it is young drawing a slightly better minutes projection and coming up more frequently relevant in early data. Young has averaged just 10.9 minutes per game this season but is projected for 23.2 this evening and could be in line for more. In his limited time, Young has posted 1.07 fantasy points per minute on 17.3% usage. He has a 37.5% assist rate and an 11.9% rebounding percentage with a 46.7% true shooting percentage. Young posted 1.19 points per minute on 18.4% usage across all situations last year, and he could be in line for increased productivity with a bigger role this evening.
On FanDuel Young lands as the most frequently optimal play on the slate, as of the mid-afternoon. If things change and his minutes projection drops, this play could change dramatically, so keeping a close eye on the news is important. Young has a 19.8% optimal lineup rate for his cheap price while providing flexibility between the power forward and center spots. He has a 27.8-point median projection and a 36.1% boom score probability that is second on the slate behind one of the other primary value plays. The difference between Young and that player is Young is currently slated for less than 5% ownership, giving him a massive 16.5 leverage score compared to the other option’s -10.4 mark in the category. Young is one of the top plays for value on the slate, particularly given news about his expected run and placement in the starting lineup. Getting to added shares of him is both easy and advisable, even if ownership climbs, assuming the optimal rate and boom score marks hold.
Young is very similar on the DraftKings slate. He comes up as a piece of the optimal lineup in 23.1% of simulated slates, and he has a giant 45.2% boom score probability that lands him at the top of the board. He has a 27.8-point median projection on the site and he is well underpriced for just $4,100 across both power forward and center. Young is slated for just 10% ownership so far, giving him a healthy leverage score of 13 that leads the slate at any position. As with the situation across town, several things about this opportunity could change as lock approaches, monitoring the news and status in the boom/bust tool is critical, but if Young is slated for the same projections he is a strong value play even with increased popularity.
Ivica Zubac: DraftKings — $4,200 — C | FanDuel — $4,600 — C
As a pure center play on both sites, Ivica Zubac has limited flexibility in lineup building tonight, but that is doing little to hamper his overall value across the industry. Zubac is underpriced for a player with a 26.7-minute projection. He has averaged 20.1 minutes per game over the first six but can reasonably be expected for more with the shorthanded Clippers running a tight rotation. Zubac is averaging 0.96 fantasy points per minute this season, and he posted a 0.99 mark last year. He has a 58.2% true shooting percentage and is pulling in a 13.3% rebounding rate and 13.9% assist percentage. He makes for a solid value play in the middle on both sites tonight.
On DraftKings, Zubac lands as the eighth-ranked player overall with a 13.1% optimal lineup rate that puts him fourth among eligible centers. Only Thaddeus Young has power forward eligibility among the centers listed above Zubac on the site, but he offers positive leverage that the other pure centers do not. Rotating through combinations of three of the four players in lineups is a solid approach to the group. Zubac is carrying a 40.4% boom score probability and is projected for just 3.4% ownership, putting him at a 9.7 leverage score that is third overall on the slate. Between the leverage and the upside it makes tons of sense to get beyond the field’s projected shares of Zubac.
Zubac is a slightly different play across town, where he is also exclusively a center. He is carrying just a 6.7% optimal lineup rate putting him in the middle of a crowded board. This does not take Zubac out of contention for value, however, given the robust 34% boom score probability that stands out against his $4,600 salary on the site. He is carrying a 27.4-point median projection and will be rostered by about 2% of the public, giving him a major chunk of leverage despite the lower optimal lineup rate. Zubac has a 5.4 leverage score that ranks 12th among players from all positions and fourth among eligible centers. With most of the other center plays carrying power forward eligibility as well, Zubac is a helpful but not mandatory blue site building block for tonight’s slate.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[NBAPAGE]
