The Monday NBA main slate was going well, right up until it wasn’t. With late swapping gaining more relevance by the day, it is critical to stay on top of things after lock this season, getting to a play like Hassan Whiteside‘s dominant outlier game in short minutes became a critical pivot for accessing the top of daily fantasy basketball standings. As we frequently discuss on shows and in Slack, however, just making a one-for-one swap when value emerges is an incomplete process. When new values emerge on the board, they can create critical additional salary and new optimal construction paths emerge for lineups. Reducing a position cost from by even $200 can dramatically change the nature of a slate if it allows access to another star-caliber player or a better block of mid-range options to fill out a roster. Utilizing optimizers for late-swapping purposes is critical, which is why we will take a look at Fantasy Cruncher’s Late Swaptimizer during this weekend’s Game Plan show. Subscribers can tune in to the premium content show at 3 p.m. on Saturday. Come hang out and bring your questions.
With just four games on tap tonight, we can always hope things are more calm, but realistically we have to plan for the worst, so be sure to tune in for all the news later on. For our purposes, we’ll be looking at a few of the main building blocks of tonight’s slate and potentially trying to find a key lower-owned pivot or two. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.
As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).
Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders
These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
A quick note, perusing the boom/bust tool suggests a significant stars and scrubs construction path could be available with enough value, as all three of LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic are among the slate leaders on both sites in both optimal lineup rate and boom-score probability despite cumbersome salaries. Star power aside, this is not always the case. We are not covering them individually here, but it seems vital to have stars in your lineups for this slate.
Michael Porter Jr. – Denver Nuggets
DraftKings — $5,800 – SF/PF | FanDuel — $5,500 – SF
With most of the Nuggets roster on the shelf once again, Porter looks to have a clear path toward a prominent role for the team tonight. Denver will be without both Will Barton and Gary Harris once again. P.J. Dozier also remains out, and now Monte Morris will likely join them on the sidelines. The general void of minutes and usage should create opportunity, regardless of specific positioning or typical role. Porter saw 30 minutes and 18% usage in a similar situation the other night, with the usage coming as a downtick from his seasonal average of 20%. Porter put up just 8 real-life points, pulling in 3 rebounds and adding an assist in a wildly disappointing outing. He will have to do far better tonight, and numbers favor him to do so.
On DraftKings Porter fits in either forward position, making him incredibly flexible and valuable on a mid-sized slate for just $5,800. Porter lands in the optimal lineup 30.6% of the time, more than 7 percentage points higher than the next closest player at any position who is not named LeBron. Porter’s boom-score probability rests at a strong 33.0%, fourth overall on the slate. He will be in public lineups for sure, but there is plenty of room to exceed the projected public popularity and not much to fear in a leverage score that is just at -1.2, far too close to even for a play this strong.
In FanDuel daily fantasy basketball contests, Porter looks equally strong at a relatively weak small forward position. He slots in for less than on the competing site, creating additional value despite the lack of positional flexibility. Porter appears in the optimal lineup in 34.2% of FanDuel simulations and has a 50.9% boom-score probability for the low salary. The primary concern is around his public exposure that is trending toward 50%. It is a closer call, but he still seems more of a building block than a spot to avoid despite the popularity.
Khris Middleton – Milwaukee Bucks
DraftKings — $8,000 – SG/SF / FanDuel — $7,500 – SF
The always underpriced and frequently unappreciated Middleton finds himself near the top of the board once again today. Playing second fiddle to one of the league’s absolute superstars will have that impact on a player, but Middleton is well worth our daily fantasy basketball attention on a regular basis. Middleton is second on the Bucks in minutes, at 32.8 per game and averages 20.7 real-life points on 23.3% usage for the year. Middleton adds a steady 17.3% rebounding rate and a strong 33.2% assist rate, totaling 5.8 rebounds and 6 assists per game.
At just $8,000 on DraftKings, Middleton lands with a 25.3% boom-score probability and can fit into both the shooting guard and small forward position. With the ability to provide a reliable floor and considerable upside in several lineup positions, he creates significant utility, thrusting himself into more than 20% of optimal lineups in simulations. Middleton is owned at around a level rate by the public, and it is both easy and advisable to get beyond the field’s exposure on him on this slate.
On FanDuel Middleton comes up even stronger at a lower salary. He fits into the puzzle as a small forward as well, creating an inflection point in deciding on two of three players at the position when we consider him alongside James and Porter. Middleton’s optimal-lineup rate on the site ranks third among the trio, but is still at a robust 30.0%. He brings a 41.9% boom-score probability along with him and should be rostered in a rotation with the other two. Middleton is also popular — he has a -2.7 leverage score — but that is a big improvement from where we saw Porter, and we do not sacrifice significant room on the upside, assuming we can afford the pivot. James ranks atop the site and the position and has a 9.6 leverage score; he is simply under-owned. My preference at the position on the blue site would be a rotation of Porter and Middleton shares alongside the under-owned LeBron.
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Fred VanVleet – Toronto Raptors
DraftKings — $8,200 – PG/SG / FanDuel — $7,500 – SG
Another player with a dramatic salary differential from site to site, VanVleet has been a roller coaster of daily fantasy basketball production this season. As has been discussed on recent shows, the Raptors’ top three players — VanVleet as well as Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam — create a daily conundrum. They play significant minutes alongside one another and tend to go back and forth on who is producing in wildly unpredictable ways. The three players are separated by 0.1 fantasy points per minute for the season, making the decision more price and popularity based.
On the FanDuel slate, the price is exactly what is pushing VanVleet’s relevance. At just $7,500 he provides significant upside at the shooting guard spot. He has a 34.0% boom-score probability and appears in 29.3% of optimal lineups. He will be popular and has a -1.9 leverage score, but this is another spot that I would like to explore ways to get beyond the field. VanVleet simply offers too much reliability and too much upside for the price.
On the opposite end, he does not look like a strong play on DraftKings. There is always the possibility that VanVleet could connect for a monster outlier scoring game, but Awesemo’s boom/bust tool is showing just a 13.9% probability of a boom score. He will not be popular at under 10% public ownership, but he only appears in 8.5% of optimal lineups, meaning the public is probably close to correct about the upside for the money. It would be easy enough to roster VanVleet at or beyond the field, but that may not be the best allocation of funds. I would take what optimizers give me of him on the night but would not look to push him into DraftKings lineups in which he does not naturally appear.
Point Guard
The point guard spot is interesting on both sites tonight. On DraftKings the position is stark because we can roster at the position. As stated throughout this piece, James is one of the top plays on the board, coming in with a 37% optimal-lineup rate on the site and pulling down a whopping 48.7% boom-score probability. He will be owned but not enough at 6.3 leverage. Roster him and let your FanDuel friends who only have him at small forward be envious.
After James, the point guard spot immediately turns to Damian Lillard, who is a standout at the position on both sites. Lillard costs just $9,500 on FanDuel and $9,700 on DraftKings. He is underpriced given the role and opportunity he is currently seeing. We have seen monster upside games in this situation from Lillard in the past, but the sites are not treating him like that player in that role. His overall production on the season is at 1.29 fantasy points per minute, precisely where it was last season. He leads the position after James with a 19.4% optimal-lineup rate and a 25.9% boom-score probability on DraftKings. He will be popular, but not enough. After all that praise, it is odd to say that he looks better on the other site, but the lower price makes it so. Lillard appears in 26.5% of optimal lineups in FanDuel simulations and has a 34.0% boom-score probability, both second at the position and among the slate leaders at any spot.
Assuming Monte Morris does not play, the next man up by optimal-lineup rate is likely to be Kemba Walker, who costs just $6,200 on FanDuel and $6,500 on DraftKings. Walker is under-owned on FanDuel by a lot. His 4.7 leverage score stands out as the leader among relevant daily fantasy basketball picks at the position. Walker has produced 1.04 fantasy points per minute through the season and has seen a steady increase in minutes as he played into shape following a long layoff. There are upside games coming for the price, and Walker should be in lineups on both sites tonight.
Gary Trent Jr. is another player who gains point guard eligibility on DraftKings, which ranks him among the site’s leaders at the position given his 14.2% optimal-lineup rate and 17.4% boom-score probability. Trent is a step down from the other options at the position, but he should see significant run and attention playing in the first unit alongside Lillard. He is a relevant shooting guard on the blue site but does not fit this position.
Staying in Portland, backup point guard Anfernee Simons is on the board, though he does not connect with an overly strong optimal-lineup rate on either site. Simons comes up for us in just 8.9% of FanDuel NBA simulations and only 13.2% of the time on DraftKings, where he can play either guard position. Simons will see minutes given the Blazers’ shorthanded squad, but he needs his shot to fall to produce for daily fantasy basketball purposes.
Hamidou Diallo of the Thunder remains a relevant play for as long as he is the team’s primary guard, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Theo Maledon still shelved. In the situation over the team’s three most recent games, Diallo has averaged 33.4 minutes, scoring 12.3 real-life points on 22.6% usage. His rebounding rate jumps to a whopping 32%, while his assist rate is a steady 17.2% (Al Horford has grabbed a large share of the ball-handling and distribution duties, posting a monster 34.4% assist rate in the sample). Diallo is second at the position on FanDuel with a 25.5% optimal-lineup rate and first with a 35.9% boom-score probability. He is dramatically under-owned and brings a healthy 8.8 leverage score. Diallo joins several quality players as under-owned options on the blue site tonight. On DraftKings Diallo looks like a high-end mix-and-match play at both guard positions. He will be under-owned on the site, but not as optimal, appearing in just 12.4% of simulations.
There are several star-caliber players on the board, including Ja Morant, Jamal Murray, Lowry and Chris Paul, and all fit into between 6 and 15% of optimal lineups across sites. They are in play and can be mixed and matched into daily fantasy basketball lineups, but none appear to be in such a great spot that we need to exceed the field. The point guard spot seems like a good source of value by positional comparison.
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