NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

A busy day in sports and at Awesemo.com gets no breaks on a wild-looking seven-game daily fantasy basketball slate. NBA DFS action has gone nowhere despite the openers in the other sport drawing some attention, for one day at least, and there are plenty of quality picks to review. There are several strong value plays in the mid-range today, which should give the slate an interesting shape on both sites. With seven games on the slate, the focus will primarily be on the top overall plays on the board. The goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Kyrie Irving — Brooklyn Nets

DraftKings — $9,800 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $10,000 — PG

The buzziest player of the day, Irving will be the lone alpha player in the team’s offense tonight, as both Kevin Durant and James Harden are sidelined. Across 233 minutes in the situation, Irving has produced 1.57 fantasy points per minute this season. He is very much in play on both sites.

On DraftKings Irving slots in with a 34.9% optimal-lineup rate, third at any position on the slate and the highest among the star-caliber pay-up options. Irving has utility with the ability to roster him at both guard spots, and he comes up with a 39.0% boom-score probability despite a $9,800 price tag on the site. The opportunity is simply too strong and his expectation is pushing through any salary barrier. The public will not be on Irving quite enough despite his heavy raw ownership mark of 33%. He has a 1.1 leverage score that suggests there is room to roster him well beyond the field. This is a fundamental building block of everything on this daily fantasy basketball slate.

On FanDuel Irving stands atop the board, appearing in the optimal lineup in 43.6% of simulations. He is expensive at $10,000, but there is plenty of upside left in the price and Irving shows it with a 46.5% boom-score probability. With one of the better leverage scores on the site at a whopping 7.0, Irving should be in significantly more of our lineups than the rate at which the public is currently getting to him. Irving would be approaching 100% exposure in a full 150-lineup slate on the blue site tonight.

Jimmy Butler — Miami Heat

DraftKings — $9,000 — SF | FanDuel — $9,000 — SF

Butler is another star who stands out for being under-owned and in a good situation across the industry. The Heat should have no trouble dispatching the visiting Warriors, with Butler likely to lead the way in everything Miami does. He has the same price on both sites and is projected for 35 minutes at a 1.36 per-minute clip.

On FanDuel Butler pops off the page on the boom/bust tool. He ranks third with a 40.1% optimal-lineup rate on the site but has a 7.3 leverage score that indicates the public is well behind the curve even at a 32.9% ownership share. Butler has a strong 32.9% boom-score probability on the site and is one of two small forwards (Gordon Hayward) that look like truly good plays.

On DraftKings Butler costs the same against a lower overall salary cap, which impacts the degree to which he is in the optimal lineup. He comes up in that spot in 21.0% of simulations, which is still among the better numbers on the slate, and his public ownership is behind again, giving him a 3.1 leverage score. Butler has an 18.7% boom-score probability against his heavy salary, but he should be rostered heavily for the opportunity created even at his median projection.

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Josh Hart — New Orleans Pelicans

DraftKings — $5,700 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $5,300 — SG

Hart looks like a standout mid-range play on both sites tonight, as the Pelicans will be without Lonzo Ball and Zion Williamson and likely without Brandon Ingram as well. Someone will have to carry the scoring load for the team, and Hart is one of the most likely candidates whose name is not Nickeil Alexander-Walker. With a 35-minute projection and 0.85 fantasy points per minute across all situations, he should see an uptick, though it is not apparent in a very limited 59-minute sample, in which Hart’s production actually dropped this season. In a larger sample back to the start of last year, he climbed slightly to 0.87 fantasy points per minute.

On FanDuel Hart ranks fifth overall on the slate and is the first discounted name in order of optimal-lineup rate. He spikes a nice 33.7% mark in that category and will only be slightly negatively leveraged at -3.7. Hart has a terrific-looking 49.3% boom-score probability, one of the highest marks on the slate, and he provides strong value from the shooting guard spot. His ownership is at a reasonable level, and it seems plausible to get to or even above the field on a quality play.

On the DraftKings slate Hart has the valuable guard/forward eligibility that adds utility to already good plays. He slots into the optimal lineup in 32.7% of simulations, making him one of the stronger plays on the slate in that regard. However, he will be at a -10.5 leverage score, which begins to create question marks on a somewhat volatile play at a salary in the mid-range not an extreme discount. Hart does have a quality boom-score probability of 35.7% and there is upside in the play, so owning but undercutting seems like a viable approach on DraftKings.

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Marcus Morris — Los Angeles Clippers

DraftKings — $5,300 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $4,500 — PF

You’re shaking your head, but this is serious. If Morris plays tonight — he is currently listed as questionable, but it seems likely he will go — he is a strong value option at power forward, particularly on FanDuel. He will be taking the court without a number of the team’s high-end players, as Paul George, Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverley, Rajon Rondo and others remain sidelined. Since the start of the season, when playing in similar situations, Morris’ production has climbed to 0.89 fantasy points per minute, up from his 0.81 mark in all situations.

On FanDuel that production will be more than enough at just a $4,500 salary from the weak power forward position. Morris is second on the slate to only Isaiah Hartenstein at the position, coming in with a 27.9% optimal-lineup rate, and he will be significantly under-owned from the mid-range value tier with a whopping 9.5 leverage score. If there is news on his status, that mark could change, but it is unlikely to swing wildly into negative leverage territory, leaving Morris as a salary-saving option. He has a 38.2% boom-score probability, and there is plenty to like about what he can put up in 35 minutes of action as projected.

On DraftKings that same minutes projection yields lower rates against his higher salary on a lower cap. Morris lands in the optimal lineup with some frequency in spite of that, coming up 17.1% of the time. He has a highly playable 4.1 leverage score on the site and slots into both forward spots, creating needed utility on the site. Morris has a 17.9% boom-score probability that says there is even upside on the play. Barring any major changes — like him being ruled out — this type of spot demands shares of plays like Morris.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.