Friday night presents an 11-game slate, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how to handle the high and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Friday, Oct. 28
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
With 11 games on tap tonight, ownership is expected to be pretty spread amongst the studs, mostly leaving it up to the DFS player on who they want to prioritize. First and foremost, Giannis Antetokounmpo remains underpriced for his godly role this season and is a player we need to be overweight on. With Khris Middleton (wrist) on the shelf, Antetokounmpo has posted a 35% usage rate and produced 65.8 DraftKings PPG through his first three starts. Notably, Bucks’ head coach Mike Budenholzer has shown a willingness to let Antetokounmpo play big minutes in competitive games early on, with 36 minutes in a two-point win over the Sixers on opening night and 38 minutes in the 11-point win over the Nets this past Wednesday. This is a change from previous seasons and Antetokounmpo has massive upside in a competitive setting tonight against the Knicks, with the Bucks only six-point home favorites. With Jalen Brunson in town, New York has been a much faster offense this season, ranking fourth in pace, which is obviously terrific news for Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP has scored at least 63.5 DraftKings in five consecutive starts at home and is well worth his slate-high price tag. He has the best ceiling of any player in action tonight in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Trae Young is also too cheap for his upside tonight, especially at only $9,400 on FanDuel, and is rating as one of the best expensive leverage targets in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. Even with Dejounte Murray in town, Young has continued to receive one of the best roles in the league. So far this season, the point guard leads the Hawks with a 33.4% usage rate and a 40.2% assist percentage, translating into 1.4 DraftKings PPM. Tonight, the Hawks are facing a Pistons club that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and 12th in pace. Atlanta’s implied team total is the third highest on the slate (117.5 points) and this contest’s total is the fourth largest on the board (228.5 points). Over the last two seasons, Young has eclipsed 50 DraftKings points 54% of the time when playing behind an implied team total of 115 points or higher.
One stud that is rating poorly from a leverage perspective in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool and is worth fading tonight is Joel Embiid. While still a large rate, the center’s usage is down 3.6 percentage points from last season and he has recorded less than 50 DraftKings points in three of five starts. Specifically, Embiid is coming off an underwhelming 41.75 DraftKing point outing against the Raptors, who is his opponent again tonight. Toronto ranks 12th in defensive efficiency and 25th in pace. The Sixers have been even slower, ranking 28th in pace, and this matchup’s total is the low mark of this 11-game slate (213 points). Lastly, Philadelphia will be in Toronto tonight, and over the last three seasons, Embiid’s fantasy production has decreased by 6.9 DraftKings PPG when competing on the road.
Value Tier
With the Magic missing Cole Anthony (oblique) and Jalen Suggs (ankle) tonight, Franz Wagner is expected to be the chalk of the slate, projecting to be a top-five most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. The idea is that being down their top-two ball handlers, the Magic will turn to Wagner in more of a point-forward role. However, this isn’t guaranteed. Paolo Banchero and Terrence Ross are both going to take on larger usage rates and while he has played a small role this season, R.J. Hampton should also see an expanded workload as one of Orlando’s best remaining ball handlers. Furthermore, with both Anthony and Suggs off the court over the last two seasons, Wagner’s fantasy production hasn’t moved one bit, remaining at 0.9 DraftKings PPM in a large sample size of 582 minutes. With the massive ownership coming in his direction, Wagner’s ceiling simply isn’t appealing enough to pursue tonight. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, the 21-year-old is rating as a bottom-five worst option on the slate in terms of leverage score.
Speaking of Ross, the veteran is much cheaper than Wagner and is a sharp pivot play for this situation. Over 30 minutes is guaranteed for Ross tonight and with Anthony and Suggs off the court, Ross’ usage has jumped 4.8 percentage points to 23.9%, lifting him to 0.9 DraftKings PPM. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Ross is anticipated to be less than 1% owned in Stokastic’s Ownership Projections.
Similar to the Magic, the Blazers are going to be shorthanded tonight, with Damian Lillard (calf) out. One of the main beneficiaries in this situation should be Justise Winslow, who is the top candidate to enter Portland’s starting five with Lillard absent. After being traded to the Blazers at the trade deadline last season, Winslow started in his final 10 games of the season with Lillard inactive. Excluding the final contest of this sample when Winslow exited due to injury, the wing amassed 30.5 DraftKings points in 30 minutes per game as a starter with Lillard sidelined. Winslow supplies one DraftKings PPM with Lillard off the court and is a real threat for over 30 fantasy points tonight against a Rockets’ club that ranks fourth in pace. While expected to be a top-five most-owned player on DraftKings in Stokasic’s projections, eating the chalk with Winslow is the best strategy, with him only being $3,900 and SF/PF eligible. Attacking Winslow on FanDuel is also a savvy move. Priced a little higher at $5,000, Stokastic is forecasting the forward to be an eye-popping less than 1% owned.
Situations to Monitor
The Lakers are the main team to watch closely tonight. After sitting out on Wednesday, Russell Westbrook (hamstring) is questionable against the Wolves. Additionally, Anthony Davis (back) is listed as questionable. If both these stars are unavailable, LeBron James would be an elite play that could come with low ownership, given the Lakers’ inactive list may come after roster lock, with this game tipping at 8:00 p.m. EST. In the 540 minutes James has played without Westbrook and Davis over the last two seasons, his usage and assist rates have increased by 2.9 and 7.3 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.6 DraftKings PPM. Now, if just one of Westbrook or Davis is out, James would still be worth attacking, as he would naturally still take on an expanded role and this tilt boasts the highest total on the slate (229.5 points). Also, if either Westbrook or Davis is active while the other is inactive, that player who suits up would be a great GPP target that surely wouldn’t be popular, given the recent injuries. As for cheap plays that could from this situation, Lonnie Walker would be a low-owned value that would benefit from extra usage if one or both of Westbrook and Davis sits, and Damian Jones or Juan Toscano-Anderson would be worth a flier if named the starter for Davis.
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