This Saturday features a seven game slate that already has some major news attached to it. Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant is doubtful to play, which opens up a whole lot on this slate. Make sure to monitor our starting lineups page if anymore news comes out later in the day. This article features three boom candidates at each pricing tier and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s take a look at some of our best NBA DFS Picks for the big slate, prioritizing yet again Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today
NBA DFS Today Boom: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $11,800 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel
58.8% DraftKings Boom/44.1% FanDuel Boom
Right back to the Giannis Antetokounmpo well we go. The Bucks are the last remaining unbeaten team and are five-point home favorites tonight against the Hawks. Is it crazy that Giannis seems to continue to get better and better each year? Through four games, he is averaging a career-high 34.5 points while shooting 63.1% from the field and has had a double-double of at least 12 rebounds in each game. Giannis has averaged 65.8 DraftKings points per game and has the highest projection on the slate for both sites by a comfortable margin even over Mavericks point guard Luka Doncic.
Giannis has an extremely high boom percentage that ranks second on both slates behind only the best value play we have seen probably all season. We’ll get to that later, but Giannis is in a great spot to continue his dominance. His salary came down a little bit so now Giannis is $11,800 on both sites. Being easier to fit on FanDuel due to their pricing and being $700 cheaper than Doncic on DraftKings, Giannis is the best pay-up option on the slate. The Hawks are 4-1 to start the season, so this should be an exciting game to watch. Pay up Giannis and don’t think twice about it.
NBA DFS Today Boom: Desmond Bane: $7,400 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel
57.1% DraftKings Boom/38.1% FanDuel Boom
The first of two Grizzlies guards we are going to get to tonight is Desmond Bane. Obviously the major news for this play is All-Star point guard Ja Morant is doubtful to play with an illness. He played through that illness last game and had his worst game of the year, so Morant will likely sit this one out. The Grizzlies are 3.5-point road favorites against the Jazz who have come back to earth a little bit after their hot start. With such a young roster and lack of defense, most of their games will be high-scoring. Same can be said for the Grizzlies who were fourth in the league in pace last season.
Bane played 23 games without Morant last season and saw an increase in his points, usage rate, rebounds, and assists. Even if they are small increases, Bane looks phenomenal in this spot tonight. He ranks in third in boom percentage on DraftKings and fifth on FanDuel. So far this season, Bane has been chucking up as many shots as he can. He has a career-high 26.4% usage rate shooting 17.6 field goal attempts, while averaging 22.6 points per game. With over 50% of his field goal attempts coming from behind the arc and ranking second in the league in most 3-pointers made per game, prioritize Bane on DraftKings tonight.
NBA DFS Today Boom: Tyus Jones: $4,700 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel
73.5% DraftKings Boom/67.7% FanDuel Boom
Finally we get to arguably the best value play we have seen on a slate thus far with Grizzlies point guard Tyus Jones. Moving into the starting lineup for the Grizzlies, Jones will see a major increase in his production tonight. Averaging just barely under one DraftKings points per minutes without Morant last season, our Stokastic projections have Jones for 32.3 minutes and he is rating out by far the best value play on both DraftKings and FanDuel. At this cheap salary on both sites, Jones is a lock for cash games and a great salary-saver for tournaments. Play Jones and get different elsewhere.
The boom percentage on Jones tonight is ridiculous, but it is all due to him not being priced appropriately. Expect his salary to rise if Morant missing more games, but for this slate Jones is a stone cold lock. The best part is Jones was already playing well off the bench. He ranks third behind Morant and Bane in scoring on the team averaging a career-high 11.6 points per game. Not only will his scoring increase, but so will his assist numbers. Jones averaged 6.6 without Morant last season. Stokastic’s first ownership run has Jones to no surprise, the highest-owned player on the slate. Lock him in.
NBA DFS Today Bust: De’Aaron Fox: $9,600 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel
69.0% DraftKings Bust/60.4% FanDuel Bust
There are a few players in our boom/bust tool that look bad on DraftKings and fine on FanDuel and vice versa, so picking one player that looks a little worse on both sites tonight was difficult. However, Kings point guard De’Aaron Fox has above a 60% bust percentage on both sites in a tough matchup against the Heat. The Kings are one of two winless teams sitting at 0-4 this season. Despite not winning a game, Fox is averaging over 30 points per game with a true shooting percentage of 67.4%. He has made 55% or more of his shots in every game. Expect those numbers to come way down.
They may even come down tonight in this matchup against the Heat who rank fourth in defensive rating and play at the third-slowest pace in the league this season. The Kings are still implied for 112 points, despite being home underdogs, but this is a tough spot to back Fox. In his last six matchup against the Heat, Fox is shooting 38.5% from the field and 15.6% from behind the arc. During that time, Fox is averaging 17.8 points per game. Playing against the Heat is one of the worst fantasy environments a player can get. Fade Fox despite his really hot start shooting the ball.
