NBA DFS Fades & Booms: Nikola Vucevic, Andre Drummond both Popping

With the Christmas Day slate in the rearview, the Association presents a medium-sized, seven-game slate tonight, with over half of the games having a total above 230 points. There is a lack of studs tonight, making the go-to lineup build a balanced approach. There are still plenty of ways to differentiate lineups, so let’s dive in.

There is going to be news to follow throughout the day, so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.

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NBA DFS Play: Nikola Vucevic: $7,500 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel

33.3% DraftKings Boom/21.8% FanDuel Boom

Pay-up options are difficult to find on this medium-sized slate, so the mid-range will be the focus. It is also a bit odd, but players with the top two boom percentages on the slate are not only from the same team, but they play the exact same position: Bulls centers Nikola Vucevic and Andre Drummond. Priced under $8,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Vucevic has a very high boom percentage. Over the last four games, he is averaging a double-double of 23.3 points and 10 rebounds per game while shooting 60% from the field.

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The Bulls have won three straight games as they try to get back into the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They look to make it four straight with a home game against the Rockets as 7.5-point favorites implied for 119 points. Rockets center Alperen Sengun is a big body, but it is rare that he plays over 30 minutes in any game. Outside of Sengun, the Rockets frontcourt is too small to guard the versatile Vucevic. who is averaging a double-double for the sixth straight season. Feel free to play both Vucevic and Drummond in this elite matchup.

NBA DFS Play: D’Angelo Russell: $7,400 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel

22.8% DraftKings Boom/21.2% FanDuel Boom

Staying in the mid-range, Timberwolves point guard D’Angelo Russell is the only player other than the two Bulls centers who has a top-five boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Timberwolves have a .500 record without Karl-Anthony Towns as he continues to recover from a calf injury. During those 10 games, Russell has really stepped it up, averaging 21.3 points and 6.4 assists per game while shooting 51.3% from the field and 41.6% from behind the arc. He has also recorded two double-doubles, including one in his last game.

Not only does Russell have a higher usage rate without Towns in the lineup, but he is also playing 4.6 more minutes and scoring 6 more DraftKings points per game. The tough part is going to be this matchup against the Heat, who rank eighth in defensive rating (111.0) entering tonight. The Heat also play at the third-slowest pace in the league, and this total is sitting at only 222 points. Despite the tough matchup, Russell has the second-highest value on FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. He is simply playing too well to ignore.

NBA DFS Play: Mike Conley: $5,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel

48.1% DraftKings Boom/31.9% FanDuel Boom

Mike Conley is another point guard worth exposure. His price continues to fall across the industry, so it is a great time to buy low in this matchup against the Spurs. Prioritize Conley on DraftKings, where he has the fourth-highest boom percentage on the slate and is only $5,000. In Stokastic’s projections, Conley has the second-best value on DraftKings and the fourth best on FanDuel, making him a strong play on both sites. Conley is a great way to get cheap exposure to this game that has the third-highest total on the slate at 235.5 points.

The scoring has decreased, but just like Chris Paul, Conley is still a valuable part of the Jazz offense, averaging a career-high 7.4 assists per game. He has six or more assists in six of his last seven games despite only averaging 27.6 minutes per game during that time. Conley is productive when he’s on the court and is always a threat to double-double, even in his limited playing time. The Jazz have a 120-implied total, which is the second highest on the slate in this great matchup against the Spurs. Conley is worth exposure on both sites.

NBA DFS Fade: Kevin Durant: $10,500 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel

51.0% DraftKings Bust/61.9% FanDuel Bust

There are only three players who are priced at $10,000 or higher on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Kevin Durant leads the way on both sites, being the most expensive player on the slate. Durant is also near the bottom in Stokastic’s ownership projections, and paying up for him looks to be a bad decision. With a bust percentage above 50% on DraftKings and above 60% on FanDuel, Durant is going to have a difficult time paying off this salary on either site. He has scored over 55 DraftKings points once in his last nine games.

Even in Stokastic’s projections, Durant has the second-highest fantasy score but by far the worst value on both sites among all of the elite players. The Nets are finally healthy with Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons, and playing alongside Irving and Simmons really limits Durant’s ceiling. He is still averaging nearly 30 points per game, but his peripherals take a major hit when the Nets are healthy. Not only that, but this is a tough matchup against the Cavaliers, who lead the league in defensive rating while allowing a league-best 104.9 points per game. This is a tough matchup that makes it difficult to pay for the price tag of Durant on either site.

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