NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer: Play or Fade Kyrie Irving?

A four-game slate waits NBA DFS players this Tuesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, NBA DFS players can examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players to help build lineups capable of shooting to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS picks for leverage on Tuesday.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 17

High-End Tier

The toughest call tonight is whether to roster Kyrie Irving. With Kevin Durant (knee) sidelined and the Nets facing a league-worst San Antonio defense, Irving is projected for top-five ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections. But Durant’s absence hasn’t resulted in strong numbers for Irving, and while fading him in a beautiful matchup against San Antonio may prove risky, those who take the risk will gain significant leverage.

In Irving’s last two games without Durant, he has underwhelmed with only 37.3 DraftKings points per game despite seeing a 29.1% usage rate and playing 38 minutes in each contest. The burden of working as Brooklyn’s lead option clearly has had a negative effect on Irving, and he rates as the slate’s worst option in terms of leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

Update: Irving (calf) has been downgraded to questionable for tonight. Being downgraded late in the day is never a good sign and if Irving is out, all of the Nets’ players would see obvious boosts to their fantasy stocks, most notably Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, T.J. Warren, Joe Harris and Edmond Sumner. The latter would likely start at point and have to be considered at his near minimum salaries. In the lone game that both Irving and Durant missed this season, Sumner started at point and posted 42.9 DraftKings points across 26 minutes vs. the Pacers. However, due note that Simmons, Curry and Harris also missed this game. So, while Sumner would be a great punt if Irving is inactive tonight, we obviously would need to temper our expectations with the Nets far healthier this time around.

While not a contrarian option, Damian Lillard makes for a much better target than Irving tonight in the $9,000 price range. Lillard has been on fire — he averaged 55.3 DraftKings points per game across his last five starts with a 29.6% usage rate. He now draws a Nuggets defense that ranks 20th in efficiency.

Lillard has been brilliant against this Denver club this season. He averaged 64.6 DraftKings points per game across their last two matchups, and tonight’s tilt presents the highest total on the slate at 238.5. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Lillard has a higher ceiling than Irving at nearly 60 fantasy points. According to Stokastic’s projections, Lillard is expected to come with nearly half the ownership as Irving on FanDuel tonight.

On the other side of this slate-high total, Nikola Jokic is a player that you must get some exposure to tonight, with Stokastic projecting him to be only around 15% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With a 27.7% usage rate and a career-high 46.6% assist percentage, Jokic has provided 1.7 DraftKings points per minute this year.

Tonight’s matchup with the Blazers carries the highest total on the slate (238.5 points), and since the Nuggets are home favorites, they own the largest implied team total on the board (122.5 points). Jokic has provided a whopping 62.6 DraftKings points per game on his home floor this season, which is nearly 10 DraftKings points per game better than what he produces on the road. Combine the center’s slate-best ceiling with the decently low projected ownership and Jokic rates as a top-10 target on the slate in terms of leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

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Value Tier

With Durant unavailable, Ben Simmons projects for top-five ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections. While overpriced on FanDuel, Simmons is too strong of a value to pass up on DraftKings at only $5,900. The ex-76er sat out Sunday with a back injury but has been removed from Brooklyn’s injury report ahead of tonight’s matchup in San Antonio.

Before sitting out Sunday, Simmons posted 35.75 DraftKings points in his first start of the season without Durant. When the former MVP sits, Simmons’ assist rate rises by 6.4 percentage points to a team-high 34.4%, and he supplies a full DraftKings point per minute.

Simmons needs only 30 DraftKings points to reach five times value at DraftKings. He has met that scoring threshold in three of his past five starts, including a 31 DraftKings point effort against the same Spurs club he will face tonight. Despite Simmons’ popularity, he still rates as a positive leverage play in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. In other words, Simmons deserves even more attention for how strong of a value he is.

Another value to consider from the Nets is Joe Harris, who is underpriced for his role without Durant. He also isn’t getting the attention he deserves, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic projects him for only around 15% ownership. The veteran has started in place of Durant and produced 23.3 DraftKings points in 27 minutes per game. When given a 25-plus minute role this season, Harris has averaged 21.5 DraftKings points per game across the 17-game sample.

The matchup with the Spurs is perfect for him. San Antonio allows the highest three-point percentage in the league by a wide margin. A whopping 67% of Harris’ total attempts have come from beyond the arc this season.

Priced near the minimum on DraftKings, Precious Achiuwa is a viable punt that will help you fit Jokic into your lineup tonight. With Thaddeus Young as DNP-CD for the last four contests, Achiuwa has taken on a larger role off the bench for the Raptors, collecting 20 DraftKings points in 20 minutes per game. The big man has contributed one DraftKings point per minute this season and rates as a top-three value on the slate for DraftKings tonight in Stokastic’s projections. However, he is projected for only 15% ownership.

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Situations to Monitor

Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) has missed three in a row and will likely receive a questionable tag for tonight’s matchup with Toronto. As one of the league’s leaders in usage, the forward’s absence would alter this short slate dramatically. Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen would all become some of the best value plays on the board. During this recent stretch without Antetokounmpo, Holiday, Portis and Allen have generated 49.1, 34.6 and 29.3 DraftKings points per game, respectively.

While Portis’ value hinges on the increased playing time he sees as Antetokounmpo’s replacement in the starting five, Holiday and Allen thrive thanks to huge upgrades to their usage rates. With Antetokounmpo off the court this season, Holiday’s usage jumps by 6.2 percentage points to 32.8%, and he scores 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. Allen’s usage rises by 4.7 percentage points to 19.9% and he records 0.9 DraftKings points per minute.

Update: Antetokounmpo has been ruled out for Tuesday night.

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