There are eight games on the NHL DFS slate tonight, including a lot of heavy hitters, particularly at center, like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews and Tage Thompson. It provides lots of top-end options to pick from. However, to complicate matters, over half (9) of the teams on the docket (16) are playing their second game in as many nights, which means a lot of late lineup news will be coming throughout the day, leading right to warmups. Stokastic subscribers are always encouraged to check out the members-only Discord for lineup/injury news, but today is especially important.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Leon Draisaitl (EDM vs. SEA): DraftKings – $7,900 | FanDuel – $10,000
The big news for this game on the Edmonton side was the reunification of the top line, putting Leon Draisaitl back with Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman. Predictably, that line has been elite offensively this season, generating 4.2 expected goals and 5.2 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Draisaitl has 24 points at five-on-five in 43 games this season and 16 of those came with Hyman on his wing. On a 60-minute basis, Draisaitl has produced 2.6 points with Hyman alongside him and 1.6 without him. That is a chasm in production and gives the German pivot a boost for this game.
Seattle is in town and they’re playing their second game in as many nights, having lost 4-1 to Tampa Bay yesterday. On the season, the Kraken have the second-worst penalty kill percentage, being one of two teams to fall below 70% (69.2%, the lower team being Vancouver at 66.7%). Over their last 20 games, Seattle is giving up the fifth-most shots and fourth-most goals per minute when down a man. It is a great spot for an Edmonton power play that leads the league in conversion percentage.
Correlation with his line mates at all offensive strengths means Edmonton can be stacked tonight but Draisaitl’s solid value on DraftKings, per Stokastic projections, means he can be used as a one-off.
Boone Jenner (CBJ at NSH): DraftKings – $5,500 | FanDuel – $7,000
Columbus is another one of the teams on their second game of a back-to-back and that makes this selection a bit precarious. In their loss to New York last night, Boone Jenner started on the second line but was moved back between Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine halfway through the game. That would put this team’s top-3 offensive options at each position back on a line together, a trio that also skates together on the power play.
When Jenner is skating with Gaudreau at five-on-five, Columbus generates 2.7 expected goals and 3.0 actual goals per 60 minutes (in over 400 minutes). Those aren’t elite offensive numbers, but they’re good and a stark contrast to what Columbus does with Jenner on the ice without Gaudreau: 1.7 expected goals and 0.0 actual goals scored in nearly 93 minutes. On a team bereft of talent, being slotted beside one of the top offensive wingers in the league is crucial for Jenner’s fantasy value.
Over their last 20 games, the only team giving up more shots per minute at five-on-five than Nashville is Anaheim, and that’s not great company for the Predators. Jenner leads the Stokastic center projections on DraftKings for those priced under $6,000, giving him solid value.
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Winger
Kyle Connor (WPG at MTL): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $9,100
The return of Nikolaj Ehlers has injected offense at all strengths for Winnipeg, and it’s certainly helping Kyle Connor as he has five goals and 9 points in six games since the talented winger joined the lineup following his injury. In nearly 105 minutes with these two flanks on the ice at five-on-five, the Jets are creating 4.1 expected goals and 4.6 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those are huge offensive numbers and speak to the upside they have at even strength, let alone the power play.
Going into Montreal is a big part of the appeal for tonight. Montreal put three forwards on the injured reserve Tuesday morning, thinning out a lineup that was already struggling. Over their last 20 games, the Canadiens are giving up the fifth-most goals per minute while short-handed and have spent the second-most time while down a man as well. They are also allowing eighth-most goals while at five-on-five.
The price on Connor and his line mates makes them expensive to stack as they’re over $22,000 on DraftKings and $27,000 on FanDuel. For those not wanting to make an expensive stack, Connor is perfectly fine to one-off, as he ranks fourth by projected DraftKings points tonight and second over on FanDuel.
Matt Duchene (NSH vs. CBJ): DraftKings – $4,900 | FanDuel – $6,500
Matt Duchene has been moved back alongside Filip Forsberg and that’s a good thing for the former as when he skates with the scoring flank, Nashville generates 25% more expected goals. In conjunction with that, the team’s expected goal share rises from 44.7% to 53.3%. Having the two of them on the ice together changes the outlook for Duchene dramatically and is one of the reasons why he projects as the top DraftKings winger priced under $5,000.
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Columbus is in town, and both teams are on their second game of a back-to-back. Even if Duchene is used in a shutdown role against the likely Jenner line from the Blue Jackets, that trio is well below average defensively, giving up 2.9 expected goals and 3.6 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. They can generate offense (Jennerate?) but struggle in their own end and that’s where Duchene et al. can make hay.
The issue with Duchene (and his line mates) is ownership. There are eight games tonight, so it’s not a tiny slate, and early Stokastic ownership projections have all three members of Nashville’s top line between 19% and 25% on DraftKings and 20% and 27% on FanDuel. That level of ownership means they can be faded but the matchup and line combinations do make Duchene and his line mates appetizing.
Victor Olofsson (BUF at CHI): DraftKings – $3,600 | FanDuel – $5,400
Buffalo has undergone a lot of changes to their depth over the last couple of weeks and, quietly, what was the team’s third line, including Victor Olofsson, has become their second line. Olofsson and his line mates are skating the most per game in calendar 2023 of any forward not on the top power play unit. It has them all between 15 and 16 minutes a night, which isn’t high, but the price also reflects that reality. In the eight games this calendar year, Olofsson is just shy of three shots per contest (2.9) and has four goals.
Like many others in this article, it is the matchup that is particularly appealing for tonight. Buffalo is in its second game of a back-to-back but get a Chicago team that ranks 28th by shots allowed per minute at five-on-five since Dec. 1,and 29th by goals against. Not having top power play exposure hurts in a matchup where the power play stands a good chance of success, but Olofsson has a great matchup at five-on-five and doesn’t need a huge night to pay off his price tag.
Stokastic projections have Olofsson third among all flanks on DraftKings priced under $4,000 and third among the same priced under $5,500 on FanDuel. He is a perfectly suitable one-off for this tournament slate.
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Defense
Shayne Gostisbehere (ARI vs. DET): DraftKings – $5,600 | FanDuel – $6,200
There will be a lot of attention on the Detroit side here, given the matchup, but that could under-sell the matchup Arizona has in return. Detroit played yesterday, getting decimated by Colorado 6-3 (it was 4-0 halfway through the game and Colorado basically stopped trying). That contest saw Ville Husso start in goal and get pulled but having played two periods; it’s likely the team will just go to backup Magnus Hellberg for this one. Husso has been the team’s best goalie and not having him in net would hurt them tonight.
On top of all this, the Detroit penalty kill has been struggling lately. Over their last 20 games, the Red Wings are giving up the sixth-most shots and second-most goals per minute when down a man. Shayne Gostisbehere, by contrast, is second among Arizona skaters in shot rate while on the power play. On tonight’s slate, Gostisbehere ranks second by DraftKings points for rearguards priced under $6,000 and second on FanDuel for those priced under $7,000. He can be used to save some money from a more expensive teammate in Jakob Chychrun.
Morgan Rielly (TOR vs. FLA): DraftKings – $4,800 | FanDuel – $5,900
In Morgan Rielly’s first four games after returning from injury, his ice time fell to 20:34 a night as he lost his top power play role. He regained it, though, and in the five games on the top power play quintet, he is up to 22:07 per matchup and has skated at least 22 minutes in four of them. The additional minutes that come with being reinserted on the power play are a boost to his fantasy profile.
The matchup with the Panthers is an appealing one for said power play. Florida played yesterday, which means either Sergei Bobrovsky starting his second game in net in as many nights, or an AHL goalie. To compound the problem, Florida has given up the second-most power plays per game in the league this season, just a shade behind Arizona. Over their last 20 games, the penalty kill has been middle-of-the-league by shots allowed and has given up the fifth-most goals per minute. Combine that with their lack of discipline, and it amounts to 19 power play goals against in those 20 games. Toronto’s power play, and thus Rielly, are in a very good spot here.
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Goalie
Anthony Stolarz (ANA at PHI): DraftKings – $6,700 | FanDuel – $6,800
Both teams in this game are playing their second in as many days, with Anaheim losing 4-3 in overtime to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia getting bombed out of Boston by a 6-0 score. John Gibson started in goal for Anaheim, which means it’s likely time for Anthony Stolarz in this one. Stolarz has an .893 save percentage in 15 appearances (eight starts) this season.
Shot volume matters for goalies in fantasy and that is explicit with Stolarz. In his eight starts, he has given up at least three goals against in all of them, giving up five in half of them. Despite all those goals against, because he’s averaged over 39 shots against in those eight starts, he’s averaging 13.6 DraftKings points. There is always a chance he gets bombed out of a start because of how poor his team is defensively, but his price reflects that possibility. Stokastic projections have him with the fourth-highest mark of any expected starter tonight, and he’s the cheapest. That presents good value and makes Stolarz a very cheap option in goal tonight for DraftKings tournament players. He is still fine on FanDuel where saves matter a bit less, but the value proposition isn’t as strong.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
WPG1: Ehlers-Connor-Dubois
There are four top lines on this slate that are clearly above the rest, with one of them being this Winnipeg trio (Toronto, Buffalo and Edmonton round out the list). As mentioned in the section on Connor, this three-man unit has been elite offensively since Ehlers’s return, and even Pierre-Luc Dubois has 8 points and 25 shots in the six-game sample. They go into Montreal, a team that is among the most undisciplined over the last five weeks and is in the bottom 10 by shots and goals against per minute on the penalty kill in that span. All three players here are on the team’s top power play unit, skate on an elite even-strength line, and are projected for under 8% ownership on DraftKings and under 2% on FanDuel. It gives them good leverage and thus are a target for tournament stacking.
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ARI1: Keller-Schmaltz-Hayton
Over the last three seasons, with these three players on the ice at five-on-five, Arizona generates 2.7 expected goals and 3.2 actual goals per 60 minutes, controlling 51% of the expected goal share. Those aren’t elite numbers, but they’re good, and considering the team around them, they’re almost unbelievable. All three skate together on the power play and at even strength, giving them perfect correlation. Since Barrett Hayton’s move to the top line, he has averaged 18:51 in ice time per game, posting 13 shots and three goals.
As mentioned in the section Gostisbehere, Detroit has a struggling penalty kill. It is a good opportunity for the Coyotes’ power play to get on the right track and perfect correlation brings this forward trio into play for tournaments. They should be much higher owned on FanDuel, where the price is very reasonable, but Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has ARI1 between 5% and 6% on DraftKings tonight, and that’s acceptable for an eight-game slate at their price.
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