Wednesday’s NBA action marks the middle of the week with a manic nine-game featured slate beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including budding superstar Luka Doncic.
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NBA DFS Picks: Wednesday, Jan. 18
Core Play of the Day — Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks-Atlanta Hawks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 65.35 | FanDuel: 62.78
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 25.0% | FanDuel: 23.5%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,400 | FanDuel: $12,400
Yes, this is semi-repetitive, but this article is about finding the core building block for each day. Nikola Jokic was stellar last night, logging his league-leading 13th triple-double, but Luka Doncic has had four days off and should be far fresher, plus he is second in the league with 10 triple-doubles.
Clint Capela is back from his most recent injury, and while he should help improve the Atlanta defensive efficiency, the Hawks still play up-tempo and are allowing 115.2 points per game. Things are always fun when Doncic and Trae Young square off, as they were part of a draft-day trade back in 2018.
In the four games they have matched up against each other since February 2021, Doncic is averaging 34.5 minutes, 22.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 10.5 assists and 2.0 combined blocks and steals. While that is a stellar stat line, it is also well below what Doncic is currently averaging, as he has taken a giant step up to the elite fantasy stratosphere populated by Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Joel Embiid. Tim Hardaway Jr. is out for this matchup, but Dorian Finney-Smith will return after a 14-game absence.
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Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz
Kawhi Leonard is unlikely to have this be his first back-to-back of the season ,and Paul George is a strong candidate for rest, as he played 29 minutes last night after missing five games with a hamstring injury. John Wall (abdomen) is out for at least the next three weeks, and with Reggie Jackson falling out of favor and seeing less than 20 minutes per game over the last fortnight, there should be plenty of minutes to go around to the ambulatory guards and wings.
Norman Powell contributes across the box score, and in 398 minutes this season without George and Leonard, he is averaging 1.1 fantasy points per minute. There is a good chance that ticks up around 10% considering Utah has a bottom-10 defensive efficiency rating while also playing slightly above average pace over the last 15 games.
Terance Mann also has upside, as demonstrated by two of his last five appearances resulting in mid-30s and mid-40s fantasy points. He should see a solid 35 minutes, with a chance for a couple extra if this game remains close. Ivica Zubac is also an intriguing center option with his reasonable salary and matchup with a more traditional center.
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Jackson, Marcus Morris Sr. and Luke Kennard are all dinged up or candidates for rest, so we will need more information before taking action with the rest of the Clippers.
The Jazz will be without Kelly Olynyk for at least another week, and Lauri Markkanen has missed the last two games with a sore hip. If he is starting, Markkanen looks good on FanDuel ($8,200), though his lofty salary on DraftKings ($9,400) means he likely will not make the optimal lineup unless he produces a top-five fantasy score.
Mike Conley looks like a solid selection on DraftKings, but the rest of the Jazz are all carrying semi-inflated salaries. This is a nine-game slate, so there will be plenty of other options that rightfully catch the eye of DFS gamers. That in turn is keeping most of the Utah players with a sub-5% projected popularity in large-field tournaments. If Markkanen misses a third consecutive game, then things will shift, but until that news is available, the Jazz players are far from viable options.
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Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Picks – Sports Betting Opportunities
LaMelo Ball is interesting tonight in his matchup against the Rockets in Houston. Currently he has a 41.5 total for his points + rebounds + assists prop tonight, and Kelly Oubre Jr. remains out and Gordon Hayward is unlikely to play.
This season, Ball’s per-36 rates of 24.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and 8.7 assists will have him right in the mix for this wager, plus the Rockets have allowed 122.3 points per 100 possessions over their last 15 games. That is the worst mark in the league.
The NBA Bet Pro projections have Ball for 42.9 points + rebounds + assists and 36.6 minutes of action. This works out to a 61% probability of surpassing the over. Though this is only an average probability of success, this wager can be found for -117 on BetMGM, which gives it a solid 4% expected return on investment, and the combination of statistical categories gives us a better baseline of production.
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Sacramento Kings-Los Angeles Lakers
This will be the fourth and final time that the Kings and Lakers do battle in the regular season, and Sacramento holds a 2-1 advantage through the first three tilts. In these games, the Kings have averaged 129.3 points, with the Lakers at a healthy 123.3 points.
Domantas Sabonis clearly has earned his five-figure salary, and with his power forward eligibility, he is a tremendous tournament target on FanDuel. Over his last 15 games, Sabonis is averaging 37.2 minutes, 21.5 points, 14.9 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 1.2 combined blocks and steals. These numbers also are remarkably similar to his three meetings with Los Angeles.
De’Aaron Fox can be mercurial with his fantasy performances, and they have been more reliant on scoring this season, with so much of the offense running through Sabonis in the high post or on the wing. This has Fox as a neutral option, but this is the perfect game environment in which he thrives. In his three outings against the Lakers, Fox is averaging nearly 20% more fantasy production than average.
Sacramento has every key player currently listed as available, which makes things a little bit crowded. Trey Lyles stands out as a late-slate option on DraftKings ($3,700), though the rest of the wings are fairly interchangeable. Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk and rookie Keegan Murray each have upside, but unless one of them is out, it is tricky to pinpoint who has the best chance at fantasy relevance.
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LeBron James is again questionable, but he is likely to be in the starting lineup. James is coming off a season-high 48 points, which came at the expense of Houston on Monday night, and that marks his third 40-point game since turning 38 years old on Dec. 30. He has missed two games since that milestone, but in the other seven he is averaging 38.2 minutes, 37.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 8.6 assists, and 1.0 combined blocks and steals. In his two games against the Kings, LeBron has averaged 35.5 minutes and just shy of 60 fantasy points.
Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves and Lonnie Walker IV remain out, so Russell Westbrook should once again see plenty of opportunities and minutes to conjure up fantasy goodness. The 2017 NBA MVP has embraced his role off the bench, and over his last seven games, he is averaging 33.9 minutes, 22.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 8.6 assists and 1.8 combined blocks and steals.
The rest of the Lakers are a bit of a motley crew and somewhat unpredictable when it comes to playing time and fantasy production. Troy Brown is a discount dandy, though with 18 teams in action, he is likely to be replaced by other options as news trickles out through the afternoon. Thomas Bryant has posted some decent fantasy games; however, the pivot position is loaded tonight.
Dennis Schroder is reliant on his scoring for fantasy production, and he is content deferring to LeBron, Westbrook and Bryant when he is on the court. Plus, with Patrick Beverley lurking and Kendrick Nunn finally healthy, this backcourt trio is rather crowded, so we are beholden to the whims of coach Darvin Ham or a potential hot-hand scenario.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today
Tonight is an expansive slate with five different start times, which means the later game news may be trickling out after the initial lock. The Nuggets and Clippers are on back-to-backs, and each team could be resting a key player or two. To keep up with all the real-time analysis, be sure to tune into the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows at 5:15 p.m. ET on YouTube, courtesy of No House Advantage.
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