Monday night delivers a seven-game slate, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how to handle the high- and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks including Pascal Siakam for Monday, Oct. 31.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
While no expensive options are expected to be massively chalky tonight, Pascal Siakam is amongst the most popular, projecting to be a top-10 most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. Even with an ownership projection around 25% on both sites, he is still rating as a positive leverage play in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, given Pascal Siakam remains vastly underpriced for his upside. So far this season, Siakam has been extremely consistent through his first six starts, scoring at least 44 DraftKings points in every game. He has also flashed big upside, exceeding 50 DraftKings points twice, including a 72.5 DraftKings point triple-double against the Nets.
By a huge gap, Pascal Siakam leads Toronto with a 29.8% usage rate – which is a notable 4.1 percentage point upgrade from last season – and 1.4 DraftKings points per minute. Tonight, the Raptors will be playing way up in pace against the Hawks, who rank 14th in pace, compared to the Raptors, who rank dead last. This contest’s total is up to 224.5 points and Toronto is only a 4-point home favorite. Siakam has always presented notable home/away splits throughout his career, and he is averaging 56 DraftKings points per game in his last 10 with totals of at least 220. At very reasonable price points on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Siakam needs to be a core play despite his expected ownership. Lastly, Fred VanVleet (back) was a late addition to the Raptors’ injury report today and the guard’s absence would further solidify Siakam as one of the best targets on the slate. With VanVleet off the court this season, Pascal Siakam’s usage has skyrocketed to 37.4%.
On the contrary, Kevin Durant is a stud that is expected to be top 15 for ownership on both sites according to Stokastic’s ownership projections, and that is worth fading. The Nets find themselves in a great spot, competing in the highest total on the slate against the Pacers (238.5 points), but Durant is simply overpriced for his form this season. While Durant’s usage has remained elite at 33.5%, his assist rate has plummeted to 18.6% playing alongside Ben Simmons, after handling a 27% assist percentage last season. While not jaw dropping, this has brought Durant’s fantasy production down from 1.3 DraftKings points per minute, after supplying 1.35 last season.
Durant is only scoring 48.5 DraftKings points per game, which is under 5x value at his current $10,000 price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel. For both sites, Durant is rating as a negative leverage in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Opposite of Durant in this slate-high total, Tyrese Haliburton is sharp way to gain leverage tonight, with his ownership projection hovering around only 10% in Stokastic’s projections. Handling career highs in both usage (25.4%) and assist rate (47.4%), Haliburton has supplied 1.45 DraftKings points per minute and exceed 50 DraftKings in 4/6 starts this season, including a 53 DraftKings point effort against the Nets this past Saturday. Brooklyn ranks dead last in defensive efficiency and Haliburton is a strong bet to surpass 50 DraftKings points again this evening.
Value Tier
With Kawhi Leonard (knee) ruled out and John Wall expected to be rested tonight, Reggie Jackson is slated to be a top-five most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. The matchup is excellent, going against a Houston team that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, but Jackson has been subpar this season and the combination of the Clippers’ depth and Tyronn Lue’s volatile rotations always make them a tough club to predict. This season, he has shot an ugly 37% from the field and even with Leonard and Wall off the floor, Jackson has only contributed 0.74 DraftKings points per minute, in a sample of 129 minutes. His floor is much shakier than most believe and with a bottom-10 leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, fading Jackson is the right move.
Brook Lopez should have low ownership and has a ton of merit for GPPs tonight. He has seen a large upgrade to his workload this season, ranking third on the Bucks with 31 minutes per game, compared to only 23 minutes per game last season. Naturally, for a productive player like Lopez, he has flourished with the expanded role, generating 33.4 DraftKings points per game through his first five starts.
Lopez is averaging 1.1 DraftKings points per minute this season. Tonight, the Bucks carry the second-largest implied team total on the board against the Pistons (118.5 points). Not only does Detroit rank second to last in defensive efficiency, but they are also allowing the most blocks in the league on a per-game basis (8.1), hich is perfect for Lopez, who is currently leading the NBA in blocks per game by a large margin (3.6). He has 40-fantasy-point upside tonight and a top-10 leverage score on slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Situations to Monitor
Joel Embiid (illness) is questionable tonight and didn’t participate in shootaround. With this game one of the first of the night to tip off at 7 p.m. ET, there should be word on Embiid before roster lock. If he sits, Tyrese Maxey would instantly become the chalk of the night but would be worth fully backing even with the massive ownership. With Embiid out for the first time this season this past Friday night, Maxey was unstoppable, posting 65.5 DraftKings points against the Raptors. Maxey has responded with 1.2 DraftKings points per minute in 75 minutes without Embiid this season thanks to a 27% usage rate, which is a 2.2-percentage-point increase from his season average. Going against a Wizards team that is playing their second game in two nights, Maxey will have massive upside if Embiid is out, and that simply isn’t reflected in his current price tags.
Ja Morant is another star that is questionable with an illness. Additionally, Desmond Bane (ankle) was a late addition to the injury report and is questionable as well. Given Morant sat out Saturday’s game with an illness, he is likely to suit up two days later. However, if he sits, Tyus Jones would need to be on radars and may not be as popular as usual given this is a later game, the news may not be out after lock and his salary significantly. The Grizzlies are facing Utah again tonight, and Jones has produced 37.5 DraftKings points per game when starting for Morant. Now, if one of Morant or Bane is active with the other inactive, that remaining player would be a terrific option due to increased usage.
On the other side of the coin, if both Morant and Bane are out, Dillon Brooks would join Jones as a terrific value from this Memphis club, that could get overlooked with this being a late game and his price points hitting new season peaks. With Morant and Bane off the floor since the start of last season, Brooks has led the Grizzlies with a 31.4% usage rate and provided 1.2 DraftKings points per minute.
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